WTW Willis Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m4f100y
SR 153 backed by market confidence at 15/8 — a genuine contender.
SR 123 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 128 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 117 backed by market confidence at 5/1 — a genuine contender.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 81 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Early Dawning | 15/8 open 3.00 | — | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 open 3.50 | 2/1 | 15/8 open 3.00 | 2/1 Coral |
| 2 Mr Master Mac | 2/1 open 3.25 | — | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Siege Of Carthage | 12/1 | — | 11/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Master Haku | 9/1 open 7.00 | — | 9/1 open 6.00 | 9/1 open 5.50 | 9/1 open 6.00 | 9/1 open 6.00 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Lureka Du Noyer | 4/1 open 5.50 | — | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Holy Joe | 14/1 open 9.50 | — | 14/1 open 9.00 | 14/1 open 9.00 | 14/1 open 9.00 | 14/1 open 9.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Butch Coolidge | 28/1 open 26.00 | — | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 Coral |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Early Dawning owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (85) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 153 backed by market confidence at 15/8 — a genuine contender.
SR 123 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 117 backed by market confidence at 5/1 — a genuine contender.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 128 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Early Dawning (SR:153, 15/8) is the clear class standout in this novice hurdle — the SR-153 mark is 25 points clear of the next best (Siege of Carthage, SR:128) and reflects a level of ability that should dominate at this level. The Mullins yard operates at a 21% strike rate from 1,268 runners, and the market has shortened 10% since opening, confirming stable confidence. Danny Mullins is a top-tier booking. The last-time-out win in the form string (3/4-1, rightmost = win) shows the horse arrives in form, and while DistFit and GoingFit are both unknown (novice with limited sample), the class edge is so pronounced that it overrides those uncertainties. The only genuine concern is whether the 12-0 topweight against lighter opponents on good ground costs anything late, but at this class level that should not trouble a horse of this ability. Each-way alternative: Mr Master Mac. Main danger: Mr Master Mac — Mr Master Mac (SR:123, 2/1) is trading at a shorter price than Early Dawning would imply is warranted — a GoingFit:+ on today's good ground is a confirmed edge, the 11-day turnaround suggests freshness rather than fatigue, and if Early Dawning underperforms on an unknown distance/going combination, the Fahey runner at big market confidence is best placed to capitalise.