Dumfries arrives here 16 days fresh, carrying 138 lb from stall eight, and has run over today's trip and going before; winless in his last five starts, but our rating just edges him ahead of these rivals and he shapes as the one to beat.
Form last 6456-55
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR60RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Twice a runner-up in recent starts, Amarachi has run over today's trip and going and her rating of 57 marks her as a genuine danger from stall 3 — though winless in her last five starts, and 167 days off the track is the key concern.
Form last 6-22629
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
53SR57RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 53 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Saxon Grace won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but she's back just five days later carrying 134 lb, and her inconsistent recent form — unplaced and down the field in several of her last six starts — suggests she's as likely to disappoint as to follow up.
Form last 6464031
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
62SR54RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Sixth last time out and unplaced two starts back make for a patchy recent spell, though a winner four starts back shows ability; he has experience over today's trip and going, and the 133 lb burden is the chief concern here.
Form last 6831406
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
44SR54RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 44 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Copper And Five has shown enough ability in his recent starts, landing a pair of runner-up finishes and a fourth in there — he has run over today's trip and going, carries 132 lb from stall four, and a 54 rating suggests he's ahead of his official mark. The risk is that he's winless in recent starts.
Form last 6022468
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR54RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last five starts, Ten Sixty Six does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and 33 days off gives her a fresh look; but a best recent finish of fourth and a rating of 53 suggest she'll need to find improvement to trouble the principals from stall seven.
Form last 6-97946
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
47SR54RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in her last six starts, with three unplaced efforts among recent outings and a modest speed rating of 50, Sweet Cicely faces a stiff task here; she has run over today's trip and going, and 25 days between runs suggests she arrives fresh.
Form last 6000964
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
18SR38RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 18 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Winless in her last six starts, with back-to-back ninth-place finishes among a string of disappointing efforts, Aurora's Doublesix faces a stiff ask carrying 129 lb from stall six, and a speed rating of 51 does little to inspire confidence, though she has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6006995
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
20SR31RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 20 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.
Winless in her last four starts, with two unplaced efforts among them, Royal Sizzler faces a stiff ask from a trainer firing at just 3% in the last 14 days; she has run over today's trip and going before, but an official mark of 50 against a rating of 42 makes her very hard to fancy.
Form last 650-04
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
34SR42RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Harswell River ran second two starts back and third five starts back, showing she's capable of mixing it at this level, and our rating of 56 puts her right in the mix despite being yet to win in recent starts — the main concern is her 125 lb burden from stall 10.
Form last 6236525
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
48SR56RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Saxon Grace owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/4Daragh BourkeShane Gray
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Amarachi
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · Joseph Parr✓ Value Signal
Sweet Cicely
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
100/1 · Mike Sowersby◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Saxon Grace (SR:62, 5/4) is the clear class leader in this field by SR margin — a 6-point gap over the next-best Dumfries (SR:56) — and that advantage is amplified by a favourable weight of 9-8, sitting below top-weight Dumfries (9-12). The recent form of 464031 shows a last-time-out win just 5 days ago, indicating peak condition right now. Trainer Daragh Bourke has a respectable 9% strike rate from a small yard (47 runners), and jockey Shane Gray (11%) maintains consistent booking, suggesting connections are confident. While GoingFit and DistFit are both unknown quantities (?), the SR dominance and fresh winning form override those uncertainties in a Class 6 field of this quality.
Each-way alternative: Dumfries.
Main danger: Dumfries — Dumfries (SR:56, 4/1) has an outstanding Course:W2P2 record at Beverley, a GoingFit:+ on today's good to firm ground, has steamed in 19% in the market, and drops a class — that combination of course specialist form and market confidence makes it the most credible threat to Saxon Grace.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Saxon Grace runs just 5 days after a win — extremely quick turnaround that risks a horse not fully recovered, and connections may be exploiting a penalty-free window before a mark rise bites.
Both GoingFit and DistFit are unknown ('?') for Saxon Grace, a notable gap versus course-proven Dumfries (W2P2) who has established form at Beverley specifically.
Trainer Daragh Bourke operates from a yard of only 47 runners at 9% — a very thin sample making the 5/4 market price heavily reliant on SR dominance alone rather than trainer form reliability.
Saxon Grace's form string 464031 shows two poor efforts (4,4) before the recent win; at 5/4 there is minimal margin for error if the quick reappearance dulls the horse's edge on Beverley's testing up…
ShortlistSaxon Grace, Dumfries, Harswell River, Amarachi