Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m
SR 126 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 131 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Caelan's Rose | 28/1 open 21.00 | — | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 open 23.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Clarity | 4/1 open 4.50 | — | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 4.00 | 7/2 open 3.50 | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Indian Lights | 5/1 open 4.50 | — | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 4.50 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Orchard Hatches | 20/1 | — | 20/1 open 26.00 | 20/1 open 26.00 | 20/1 open 26.00 | 18/1 open 29.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Siena Storm | 4/7 open 1.67 | — | 8/15 open 1.73 | 8/15 open 1.73 | 1/2 open 1.73 | 8/15 open 1.67 | 4/7 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Siena Storm owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 131 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Siena Storm leads the field on SR at 157 — the only runner above 155 — and Ed Walker's 15% career strike rate paired with Kieran Shoemark is a solid booking for a horse expected to progress. At 4/6, the market is decisively confident despite a form figure of just '4' last time out, suggesting connections and the market believe the debut run massively understated ability. The equal class move means no upward step in grade to worry about, and at 9-2 Clarity, the Balding yard's primary runner, is actually drifting (out 10%) despite having Oisin Murphy aboard — the market is not rushing to oppose Siena Storm. The main concern is the unknown distance and going fit for all runners, but on raw SR and market conviction this is the clear selection. Each-way alternative: Clarity. Main danger: Indian Lights — Indian Lights carries an SR of 151 and has Oisin Murphy's rejected booking filled by Ben Coen — stepping up two class tiers is the risk, but if that fourth-place debut form translates upwards, Michael Bell's filly could improve enough to challenge.