Churchwarden landed a win four starts back and was second five starts back, showing he holds genuine form at this level, and he returns fit on 37 days' rest with experience of today's trip and conditions; the worry is his two pulled-up efforts since that win.
Form last 621PP/0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
107SR110RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts, Palace Boy nonetheless shaped with promise when second four starts back, and his experience over today's trip and going counts in his favour; rated 117, he holds solid claims despite the 165 lb burden.
Form last 620/0-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
78SR117RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 78 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Dairy Force arrives here in decent nick, twice finishing second in his last three starts and returning after just 17 days, with experience over today's trip and conditions working in his favour; the worry is that he remains winless in recent starts and must shoulder 163 lb.
Form last 62-0225
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR105RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Third two starts back shows Claude has ability at this level, and he returns fit on 17 days' rest having run over today's trip and going before — our rating of 113 underlines his claims; the main risk is a patchy recent record, winless in his last five starts.
Form last 67P-030
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
107SR113RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 107 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rightfolksplease ran well enough to win last time out and has placed experience over today's trip and conditions, but carrying 158 lb for a gelding ranked fifth of six on our figures makes him hard to fancy at this level despite that recent confidence-booster.
Form last 63F0/21
★AI Rating★★★★☆
104SR98RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Winless in his last four starts — which include an unseating and two unplaced efforts — Kome Dans Un Reve is hard to fancy here; our rating has him ranked last of six, and 78 days off the track adds a fitness query, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 60/U8-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
64SR80RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Rightfolksplease owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Declan QueallyKevin Healy(7)
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Churchwarden
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
15/8 · Henry De Bromhead✓ Value Signal
Palace Boy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · John F Gleeson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Claude (SR:107, 4/1, Wgt:11-8) shares the top SR rating with Churchwarden but carries 4lb less and has seen a dramatic 47% market move inward — the strongest market signal in the race by a wide margin. A small yard (Connell, 14% strike rate from only 22 runners) attracting that level of money suggests connections are confident. The GoingFit:~ is not ideal but neither is it a disqualifier, and at 5 years old there is residual improvement to come. The form string 7P-030 is modest but the market is clearly telling us this horse is primed for a better showing today.
Each-way alternative: Churchwarden.
Main danger: Churchwarden — Churchwarden (SR:107, 9/4, Course:W1P1) shares the top SR, has proven course form, and suits today's good going (GoingFit:+), though the 8% drift and a MarkMv:+48 are significant concerns that keep it off the top spot.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form string 7P-030 includes a pull-up (P) — a serious welfare/soundness flag that raises questions about Claude's ability to complete, let alone win, under today's conditions.
Jockey Aidan Kelly has a weak 7% strike rate from 182 rides — well below the field average — and is not an upgrade on what this horse has had previously.
GoingFit:~tb (turf/both) is an uncertain fit for today's going; Churchwarden and Rightfolksplease have more proven going suitability markers (b and t respectively).
The 47% market move is dramatic but the yard has only 22 runners on record — a tiny sample making the 14% strike rate statistically fragile and the market move potentially thin-money driven.