Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Flooding owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (95). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/10Marco BottiOisin Murphy
85%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
All Angels
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
17/2 · Ed Walker✓ Value Signal
Polgaria
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · Roger Teal◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Tiora Time (SR 86, 5/4) is chosen despite holding the lowest SR in the field — a key contextual note is that this is a novice for fillies in Bands B, C and D, meaning top-rated horses from Band A are excluded, and SR values here reflect early-career profiles rather than developed ability. Tiora Time's form reads 3-1 (last run a win), and she arrives just 12 days later with Colin Keane retained (16% career SR, 1020 rides — a high-volume, high-confidence booking), and the market has shortened 7% since opening, suggesting stable confidence and informed money. The class move up one tier is a concern, but the step from a Band D/C novice win into this company is manageable given the opposition's issues. Flooding holds the highest SR (154) but has drifted 8% and has only a single second-place run to her name, while All Angels (SR 145) has also drifted 8% off a sixth-place debut — market is clearly cooling on both.
Each-way alternative: Flooding.
Main danger: Flooding — Flooding (SR 154, 11/10 despite 8% drift) carries the strongest raw rating and Oisin Murphy's 21% career strike rate on 1,300 rides is the best jockey profile in the race — a second on debut in a Band A-excluded novice is far from a weak run, and she could outclass this field if the drift is merely market noise rather than a stable concern.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Tiora Time carries the lowest SR (86) in the field — a 68-point gap below Flooding (154) and 59 below All Angels (145), suggesting meaningfully inferior form credentials even within this restricted n…
Flooding (11/10, SR 154, Oisin Murphy 21% SR) is market leader despite drifting — Murphy's elite 21% strike rate on a filly with the highest class rating represents a formidable combination Tiora Tim…
Tiora Time's sole win came at Band D/C level; stepping into Band B company against a field where three rivals hold SR 124+ is a concrete class rise that her 86 SR gives little statistical basis to ha…
Tom Clover's 14% trainer SR from only 260 rides is a modest operation; retaining Keane is positive but does not offset the raw SR deficit against Botti (15%, 405 rides) and Walker (15%, 818 rides) —…