Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle · 2m4f51y
SR 91 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 95 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
SR 87 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 71 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 87 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 81 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ripsnorter | 18/1 open 13.00 | 18/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 open 13.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Market Ready | 11/2 open 6.00 | 5/1 open 5.00 | 11/2 open 5.50 | 11/2 open 5.50 | 11/2 open 5.50 | 11/2 open 5.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Lauro's Legend | 66/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 open 34.00 | 80/1 Paddy Power |
| 4 Private Policy | 11/2 open 7.50 | 5/1 open 7.00 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Beyond Forgiveness | 18/1 open 12.00 | 18/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 open 10.00 | 18/1 open 11.00 | 18/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Nirisque | 11/1 open 9.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Silly Mongoose | 4/1 open 6.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 4/1 | 9/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 Betfred |
| 8 Bobby Kirova | 9/2 open 4.50 | 4/1 open 4.50 | 9/2 open 4.33 | 9/2 open 4.33 | 9/2 open 4.33 | 9/2 open 4.50 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 9 Blue Johnl | 12/1 open 12.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Mahler's Best | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 20/1 | 18/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Chemdawg | 10/1 open 15.00 | 9/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 12 Mother Ship | 11/1 open 17.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 15.00 | 11/1 open 17.00 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 13 Soldier Saint | 7/1 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 8/1 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 9.50 | 8/1 William Hill |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Private Policy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalSR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 100 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 95 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 87 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 87 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 81 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 91 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 83 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.
SR 71 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Private Policy (SR 104, 6/1) carries the highest SR in the field by a clear margin and arrives on a strong recent form line of 04-151 — a last-time-out winner stepping up from that effort. At 11-7 the weight is manageable for the top-rated runner, and trainer Nigel Slevin's 7% strike rate with a horse clearly in form is sufficient. The MarkMv:+5 means connections are running off a slightly higher mark, but a horse that just won and holds the SR lead by 4 points over Bobby Kirova (SR 100) is not obviously vulnerable to that rise. Market has not drifted, suggesting no insider concern. Each-way alternative: Silly Mongoose. Main danger: Bobby Kirova — Bobby Kirova (SR 100, 9/2) arrives on a consistent 36631 form string with a last-time-out win, carries a lighter 11-5, and jockey Daniel King posts a 10% career strike rate — a genuine each-way threat, albeit running off a hefty MarkMv:+11.