Liberate has run over today's trip and going, and she won four starts back, but she's finished seventh and ninth in her last two outings, so the form is cooling. Quick back-out after 13 days and 138 lb give her plenty to do, though our rating of 72 keeps her in the mix.
Form last 6921597
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR72RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Medway Queen arrives in cracking nick, third last time out and a second two and three starts back, with just 15 days since that run and experience of both today's trip and the going. Yet to win in her last five, she carries 138 lb from stall five, and that top-weight burden is the main risk.
Form last 6442-23
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR79RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Bofa Beach arrives in fine heart, a second last time out and another second two starts back, just 17 days after her latest run, and she has run over today's trip. Still yet to win in her last six, so finding that elusive breakthrough from 137 lb is the main risk.
Form last 6393022
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
76SR77RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Alterity has a win three starts back and two thirds before that, but she was unplaced last time out and a sixth two starts back, so the form has cooled. She has run over today's trip and is fresh enough after 24 days, though 136 lb from draw 6 looks a stiff ask.
Form last 6-33160
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
43SR70RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 43 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Unexposed filly who won three starts back, though she has managed only a sixth last time out and an unplaced run before it, so there may be more to come. She returns after 37 days off, carries 136 lb from draw 2, and is with a stable currently out of form.
Form last 607106
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR—RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Our top-rated runner, she was third two starts back and has run over today's trip and on the going, returning after 21 days off. Winless in her last five and unplaced last time, but an 80 rating against an official 68 makes her the one to beat from stall one.
Form last 63-0930
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR80RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Filly Eilish arrives in sound form after a second last time out just ten days ago, and she has run over today's trip and on this going before. Our rating of 76 makes her a leading threat, though a single win in her last six starts is the concern.
Form last 6615542
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR76RPR68OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Imola has only one win in her last six starts, and that came six starts back, since when she has managed a fourth last time out and little else. She is back quickly after 10 days, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating ranks her eighth of ten.
Form last 6146004
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
54SR70RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
Blue Celestial is winless in her last six, though she has been second twice in that spell and fourth last time out, so she is consistent without ever landing a blow. A 65-day break and 130 lb from stall eight are hard to ignore, but she has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6436224
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
73SR70RPR63OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Gilleangirl is winless in her last five, finishing unplaced last time, seventh two starts back and eighth five starts back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going before, and a fourth three starts back is the best of it, though our figures rank her ninth of ten.
Form last 6-87470
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
32SR57RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Blue Celestial owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (41) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3James TateHector Crouch
73%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Bofa Beach
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
3/1 · John Butler✓ Value Signal
Alterity
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Charlie Johnston◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Bofa Beach (SR 76, 3/1) carries the joint-highest SR in the field on 9-11, a pound less than the co-rated Medway Queen and Blue Celestial on 9-12 and 9-4 respectively, giving a meaningful weight-adjusted edge. Crucially, the market has backed her in 12% since opening — real late money in a Class 5 fillies' handicap is a strong signal — and her DistFit:+ confirms she handles a mile comfortably. The GoingFit:- is the main concern, but Southwell AW fibre-sand rarely produces true firm-ground going, and with David Egan booked at 14% career strike rate, connections are clearly trying. The form figures of 393022 show a horse coming through the pack and narrowing margins, which points to a progressive filly at this level.
Each-way alternative: Medway Queen.
Main danger: Blue Celestial — Blue Celestial (SR 73, 7/2) shares top SR, carries the lightest weight in the shortlist at 9-4, has been backed in 7%, and trainer James Tate hits at 19% — one of the strongest connections in the race — though the 65-day absence and DistFit:- are the concerns to weigh.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
GoingFit:- is a genuine red flag — Bofa Beach's form figures of 393022 include no AW Southwell fibre-sand wins, and her best efforts may have come on different surfaces where she moves more comfortab…
Filly Eilish (SR:72, 7/2) has a Course:W1P2 record at Southwell and is also drifting in (7%), offering proven course form Bofa Beach lacks entirely.
Blue Celestial (SR:73) carries 7lb less than Medway Queen and 7lb less than Bofa Beach on a per-rating basis, trained by the in-form James Tate (19% strike rate) with Hector Crouch (18%) — a weight-a…
Bofa Beach's form string 393022 contains no win in 6 starts; the narrowing margins narrative is optimistic for a 3/1 shot who has yet to convert despite multiple opportunities at Class 5 level.
ShortlistBofa Beach, Medway Queen, Blue Celestial, Filly Eilish