Carlisle 17:20 RESULTED
Class 5 22 Oct 2026

Yesterday GA Wilson Plastering Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

GA Wilson Plastering Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race) · 2m1f33y

Official Result

GA Wilson Plastering Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Junior Minister (IRE) Jonathan England · Sam England
    10/1
  2. 4/7F
  3. 6/1
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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 11 hours, 10 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Junior Minister silks
Junior Minister
Age 5 · 11-2
2-
—
92
—
5
11-2
★★★☆☆
—
7/1 5/1 7/1
Unexposed gelding who was second on his latest outing, yet to win in recent form and open to improvement, though he returns after 296 days off and carries 156 lb, so fitness is the question.
AI verdict

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Pony Express silks
Pony Express
Age 5 · 11-2
2
—
89
99
5
11-2
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 7/2 14/1
Pony Express signed off with a second last time out, and he has run over today's trip, though he returns after 169 days off and is yet to win in his recent form. Our rating has him top of this six-runner field, and that makes him the one to beat despite 156 lb.
AI verdict

SR 89 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Crystal Spectre silks
Crystal Spectre FAV
Age 4 · 11-1
2-
—
99
—
4
11-1
★★★☆☆
—
8/11 5/4 4/7
Unexposed gelding who finished second last time out, but he returns after 256 days off and is yet to win in that sole recent start, so fitness is the question. Carrying 155 lb, he has scope for improvement on very limited evidence.
AI verdict

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Maliko Des Pins silks
Maliko Des Pins
Age 4 · 11-1
—
—
95
—
4
11-1
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 11/2 6/1
Maliko Des Pins is an unraced debutant, so he's entirely unexposed with no form to judge and plenty of scope for improvement. He carries 155 lb, and we'll learn plenty from how he takes to this first test.
AI verdict

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Midnight Jury silks
Midnight Jury
Age 4 · 11-1
—
—
94
—
4
11-1
★★★☆☆
—
4/1 9/4 4/1
Midnight Jury is unexposed with no recorded form to go on, so this debut is a real step into the unknown for the gelding. He carries 155 lb, and with so little known there is scope for improvement.
AI verdict

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Grey Day silks
Grey Day
Age 4 · 10-8
8
—
64
90
4
10-8
★★☆☆☆
—
40/1 25/1 40/1
Grey Day has run over today's trip and arrives fresh after 55 days off, with last time's eighth the only recent run to judge her on. Our rating of 90 ranks her second of six, so she's a leading threat, but that lone, winless recent run is the main risk.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Junior Minister 7/1 open 6.50 15/2 open 6.00 15/2 open 6.00 15/2 open 6.00 15/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 15/2 Paddy Power
2 Pony Express 14/1 open 7.00 16/1 open 4.50 16/1 open 5.50 16/1 open 5.50 16/1 open 5.50 16/1 open 6.00 16/1 Paddy Power
3 Crystal Spectre 8/11 open 2.50 4/7 open 2.25 4/6 open 2.38 4/6 open 2.38 4/6 open 2.38 4/6 open 2.50 8/11 Bet365
4 Maliko Des Pins 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 13/2 open 10.00 6/1 open 6.50 13/2 William Hill
5 Midnight Jury 4/1 open 3.25 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 3.75 4/1 open 3.75 9/2 open 3.75 4/1 open 3.75 9/2 William Hill
6 Grey Day 40/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 26.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 40/1 40/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Crystal Spectre

Live signal

Crystal Spectre owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (55) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

8/11 Dan Skelton Harry Skelton
72% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Midnight Jury

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

4/1 · Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill
✓ Value Signal

Grey Day

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Micky Hammond
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
55 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +20.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
97 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +21.3 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.5 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Crystal Spectre
61.2 8/11
2 5. Midnight Jury
58.1 4/1
3 1. Junior Minister
55.4 7/1
4 4. Maliko Des Pins
54.1 6/1
5 2. Pony Express
47.9 14/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Crystal Spectre
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 4 · 11-1
8/11
★★★☆☆ SR 99 🐾 —

SR 99 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 4 · 11-1
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 94 🐾 —

SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 11-1
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾 —

SR 95 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 5 · 11-2
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 92 🐾 —

SR 92 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 11-2
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 89 🐾 —

SR 89 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Crystal Spectre
Confidence: Medium

Crystal Spectre (SR 99, 11/8) is the top-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and is trained by Dan Skelton (22% strike rate from 2,647 runners) with Harry Skelton in the saddle (27% strike rate from 1,709 runners) — the most accomplished handler-jockey combination here by some distance. The market has firmed 5% since opening, confirming confidence from those in the know. At 11-1 weight, the 4yo carries a pound less than Junior Minister and the same as Maliko Des Pins and Midnight Jury, so there is no weight disadvantage to offset the SR superiority. The form reads 2- (a second on debut in a bumper, then a blank — likely a Rules absence rather than a poor run), which is acceptable in this open bumper context where most rivals are similarly lightly raced. Each-way alternative: Maliko Des Pins. Main danger: Midnight Jury — Midnight Jury (SR 94, 3/1) is a Jonjo O'Neill-trained debutant with headgear applied from the outset, suggesting connections know enough about this horse to think it needs assistance to focus — it is the second-best priced runner and could outrun its mark if the hood has the desired effect on a first start.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads '2-' meaning Crystal Spectre has a Rules absence (the dash) since its debut second — unknown reason for missing run, could mask a training setback or physical issue.
  • Maliko Des Pins has drifted IN 41% to 9/2 despite a blank form line, suggesting significant stable confidence from the Hughes/Hughes combination that rivals Crystal Spectre's market move.
  • At 11/8 in an open bumper with only one career start, Crystal Spectre is asked to carry favourite's burden against Midnight Jury (SR 94, 3/1) who also holds unexposed form — the SR gap (99 vs 94-95)…
  • Carlisle's undulating track and sharp turns can favour older, more experienced bumper horses; Crystal Spectre is a 4yo with just one run, potentially vulnerable to the track-seasoned 5yo Junior Minis…
Shortlist Crystal Spectre, Midnight Jury, Maliko Des Pins
Each-way: Maliko Des Pins Danger: Midnight Jury

🗺 The Course Class 5

2m1f33y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Carlisle Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade