Final Straw won two starts back and three starts back, but he was only sixth last time out and returns after 322 days off, a long absence to overcome under 168 lb. He has run over today's trip, though our rating of 94 ranks him sixth of 13.
Form last 664116-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
67SR94RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Shoeshine Boy won two of his last five starts, taking the last of them four starts back after a win five starts back, and he has run over today's trip, so he is a leading threat on 168 lb. The risk is a 162-day absence after being pulled up last time out.
Form last 61135-P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR98RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
U S Marshall bounced back with a second last time out and has run over today's trip, while our rating of 99 ranks him second of 13 and he's rated 98 officially. The risk is a 201-day absence, and he's yet to win in his last five starts, carrying 166 lb.
Form last 659552-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR99RPR98OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fourth last time out just 15 days ago, and a third three starts back, show Jetovango is in the mix, while he has run over today's trip and is ranked fourth of 13 on our ratings. The risk is that he is still yet to win in his last five, and 163 lb is a hefty burden.
Form last 64-P374
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR95RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Chicago Storm is our top-rated runner and his best recent effort was a third three starts back, while he has run over today's trip before and is rated 107 by us, well clear of his official 95. A 90-day break and 163 lb are reservations, but the profile still points to him.
Form last 6F03-P0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR107RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
La Lolita has been fifth last time out, a fourth two starts back and a fifth three starts back, a slide since her win five starts back, and she returns after 48 days. She has run over today's trip and our rating of 93 ranks her seventh of 13, but 162 lb off an official 94 looks a stiff ask.
Form last 613-545
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR93RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Gonnino is consistent without being a threat, finishing fourth last time out and fifth two starts back, though he is yet to win in his last five outings. He has run over today's trip and has had 28 days off, but 158 lb is a big burden off 90, and our rating of 89 has him eighth of 13.
Form last 6624-54
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
79SR89RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Half Track returns after 268 days off, having been pulled up last time out, with a fifth two starts back his best recent effort, and he is yet to win in his last five. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 95 ranks him fifth of 13, but 156 lb is a stiff ask.
Form last 688U5P-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
62SR95RPR88OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Lady Phoebe is hard to fancy, beaten in an eighth last time out and yet to win in her last five starts, though she did manage a fourth two starts back. She has run over today's trip and returns after 22 days, but 152 lb is a big burden and our figures rank her tenth of thirteen.
Form last 60744-8
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
85SR86RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rickety Gate has been below his best lately, with a seventh last time out and another seventh before that, and he returns after 138 days off. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 88 is a plus off 151 lb, but he is winless in his last five.
Form last 634P-77
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
81SR88RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Coventry won last time out, but that came after a seventh and a sixth in his previous two runs, so the form is patchy, and he has run over today's trip. Carrying 151 lb off 83 and ranked 11th of 13 on our figures, he looks hard to fancy.
Form last 67367-1
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
85SR84RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five, Am Still Here was fifth last time out after a third, a second and another third before that, and he has run over today's trip. Ranked 12 of 13 on our figures and carrying 149 lb, he is hard to fancy, though 28 days off is no concern.
Form last 62323-5
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
69SR82RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Billable Grant is hard to fancy after 476 days off, with a fifth last time out and an unplaced run before that, and he is ranked last of 13 on our figures at 74. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip and won four starts back, though 144 lb is a lot to carry.
Form last 61/405-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
51SR74RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
U S Marshall owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
7/2Oliver Greenall & Josh GuerrieroToby Wynne
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Rickety Gate
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Nicky Richards✓ Value Signal
Chicago Storm
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · F P Murtagh◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Rickety Gate (SR:81, 11/2) is the standout on a combination of signals that no other runner matches. Two wins and four places at Carlisle (Course:W2P4) is a powerful course-specialist record on a track where local knowledge counts. The mark has dropped 6lb since last win (MarkMv:-6), giving a rare handicapping advantage in a field where most rivals are on raised or unchanged marks. Nicky Richards (17% career strike rate, 273 runners) is one of the most reliable northern jump yards, and Danny McMenamin at 16% is a high-quality booking. The market has shortened 37% (Mkt:in41% — presumably a data-label quirk but the direction is strongly inward), confirming stable confidence. Distance is moderate rather than proven (DistFit:~) and going is moderate (GoingFit:~), which are manageable caveats given the course record and the weight relief.
Each-way alternative: Coventry.
Main danger: U S Marshall — U S Marshall (SR:88, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and, despite DistFit:- and GoingFit:?, is backed by the Greenall/Guerriero yard at 15% strike rate over 1,067 runners — if the headgear (p) sparks improvement on a lenient mark, the raw SR advantage could tell.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Rickety Gate is 11 years old with a 138-day absence and a recent form line of 34P-77 — the pull-up and two 7th-place finishes suggest declining ability, not a horse building toward a win.
U S Marshall (SR:88) and La Lolita (SR:86) both carry superior speed ratings at shorter prices (4/1), meaning Rickety Gate faces meaningfully higher-rated rivals despite the 6lb mark drop.
Both distance and going are flagged as moderate fits (~), so the course record may be from different conditions; today's combination of going and trip is not confirmed to suit.
Lady Phoebe (SR:85, in41% market move, MarkMv:+35) is being backed just as aggressively despite a much lighter weight (10-12) and more recent racecourse form (22 days), representing a live market riv…
ShortlistRickety Gate, Coventry, U S Marshall, Lady Phoebe