Carlisle 15:02 RESULTED
Class 5 22 Oct 2026

Yesterday Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)

Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I) · 2m3f218y

Official Result

Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Lady Phoebe (IRE) Ryan Mania · Adam Nicol
    7/1
  2. 80/1
  3. 28/1
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12:51–16:53 · 8 races

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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 11 hours, 10 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Final Straw silks
Final Straw
Age 6 · 12-0
64116-
100
67
94
6
12-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
20/1 17/2 20/1
Final Straw won two starts back and three starts back, but he was only sixth last time out and returns after 322 days off, a long absence to overcome under 168 lb. He has run over today's trip, though our rating of 94 ranks him sixth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Shoeshine Boy silks
Shoeshine Boy
Age 10 · 12-0
1135-P
100
59
98
10
12-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
25/1 14/1 22/1
Shoeshine Boy won two of his last five starts, taking the last of them four starts back after a win five starts back, and he has run over today's trip, so he is a leading threat on 168 lb. The risk is a 162-day absence after being pulled up last time out.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

3
U S Marshall silks
U S Marshall
Age 6 · 11-12
59552-
98
88
99
6
11-12
★★☆☆☆
—
7/2 4/1 10/3
U S Marshall bounced back with a second last time out and has run over today's trip, while our rating of 99 ranks him second of 13 and he's rated 98 officially. The risk is a 201-day absence, and he's yet to win in his last five starts, carrying 166 lb.
AI verdict

SR 88 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Jetovango silks
Jetovango
Age 7 · 11-9
4-P374
95
81
95
7
11-9
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 17/2 11/2
Fourth last time out just 15 days ago, and a third three starts back, show Jetovango is in the mix, while he has run over today's trip and is ranked fourth of 13 on our ratings. The risk is that he is still yet to win in his last five, and 163 lb is a hefty burden.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Chicago Storm silks
Chicago Storm
Age 7 · 11-9
F03-P0
95
62
107
7
11-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 FCST 40/1
Chicago Storm is our top-rated runner and his best recent effort was a third three starts back, while he has run over today's trip before and is rated 107 by us, well clear of his official 95. A 90-day break and 163 lb are reservations, but the profile still points to him.
AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

6
La Lolita silks
La Lolita
Age 5 · 11-8
13-545
94
86
93
5
11-8
★★☆☆☆
—
5/1 9/4 5/1
La Lolita has been fifth last time out, a fourth two starts back and a fifth three starts back, a slide since her win five starts back, and she returns after 48 days. She has run over today's trip and our rating of 93 ranks her seventh of 13, but 162 lb off an official 94 looks a stiff ask.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Gonnino silks
Gonnino
Age 7 · 11-4
624-54
90
79
89
7
11-4
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 6/1 10/1
Gonnino is consistent without being a threat, finishing fourth last time out and fifth two starts back, though he is yet to win in his last five outings. He has run over today's trip and has had 28 days off, but 158 lb is a big burden off 90, and our rating of 89 has him eighth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Half Track silks
Half Track
Age 10 · 11-2
88U5P-
88
62
95
10
11-2
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 11/1 20/1
Half Track returns after 268 days off, having been pulled up last time out, with a fifth two starts back his best recent effort, and he is yet to win in his last five. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 95 ranks him fifth of 13, but 156 lb is a stiff ask.
AI verdict

SR 62 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

9
Lady Phoebe silks
Lady Phoebe
Age 5 · 10-12
0744-8
84
85
86
5
10-12
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 8/1 11/2
Lady Phoebe is hard to fancy, beaten in an eighth last time out and yet to win in her last five starts, though she did manage a fourth two starts back. She has run over today's trip and returns after 22 days, but 152 lb is a big burden and our figures rank her tenth of thirteen.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Rickety Gate silks
Rickety Gate FAV
Age 11 · 10-11
34P-77
83
81
88
11
10-11
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 8/1 9/2
Rickety Gate has been below his best lately, with a seventh last time out and another seventh before that, and he returns after 138 days off. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 88 is a plus off 151 lb, but he is winless in his last five.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Coventry silks
Coventry
Age 9 · 10-11
7367-1
83
85
84
9
10-11
★★★☆☆
—
7/1 8/1 6/1
Coventry won last time out, but that came after a seventh and a sixth in his previous two runs, so the form is patchy, and he has run over today's trip. Carrying 151 lb off 83 and ranked 11th of 13 on our figures, he looks hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Am Still Here silks
Am Still Here
Age 7 · 10-9
2323-5
81
69
82
7
10-9
★★☆☆☆
—
14/1 11/1 12/1
Winless in his last five, Am Still Here was fifth last time out after a third, a second and another third before that, and he has run over today's trip. Ranked 12 of 13 on our figures and carrying 149 lb, he is hard to fancy, though 28 days off is no concern.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Billable Grant silks
Billable Grant
Age 9 · 10-4
1/405-
76
51
74
9
10-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 25/1 40/1
Billable Grant is hard to fancy after 476 days off, with a fifth last time out and an unplaced run before that, and he is ranked last of 13 on our figures at 74. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip and won four starts back, though 144 lb is a lot to carry.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Final Straw 20/1 open 9.50 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 13.00 25/1 Paddy Power
2 Shoeshine Boy 25/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 25/1 Bet365
3 U S Marshall 7/2 open 5.00 10/3 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 open 5.00 7/2 Bet365
4 Jetovango 6/1 open 10.00 11/2 open 10.00 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.50 6/1 open 10.00 6/1 Bet365
5 Chicago Storm 66/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 41.00 40/1 66/1 Bet365
6 La Lolita 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 3.25 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 3.75 5/1 Bet365
7 Gonnino 10/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 open 7.00 10/1 Bet365
8 Half Track 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 13.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 12.00 20/1 open 13.00 22/1 Bet365
9 Lady Phoebe 6/1 open 11.00 11/2 open 12.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 11.00 6/1 open 12.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 Bet365
10 Rickety Gate 11/2 open 9.00 9/2 open 11.00 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.50 5/1 open 9.00 11/2 Bet365
11 Coventry 7/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 11.00 13/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 10.00 7/1 Bet365
12 Am Still Here 14/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 Bet365
13 Billable Grant 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 26.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

U S Marshall

Speculative

U S Marshall owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Toby Wynne
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Rickety Gate

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Nicky Richards
✓ Value Signal

Chicago Storm

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · F P Murtagh
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
56 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. U S Marshall
56.4 7/2
2 10. Rickety Gate
56.1 11/2
3 6. La Lolita
55.1 5/1
4 9. Lady Phoebe
52.1 6/1
5 4. Jetovango
51.9 6/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Rickety Gate
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Age 6 · 11-12
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 5 · 11-8
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾 —

SR 86 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 11 · 10-11
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 7 · 11-9
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 5 · 10-12
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Age 9 · 10-11
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 7 · 11-4
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 7 · 10-9
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 6 · 12-0
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

Drifters Drifted — market cooling

No drifters in this race.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Rickety Gate
Confidence: Speculative

Rickety Gate (SR:81, 11/2) is the standout on a combination of signals that no other runner matches. Two wins and four places at Carlisle (Course:W2P4) is a powerful course-specialist record on a track where local knowledge counts. The mark has dropped 6lb since last win (MarkMv:-6), giving a rare handicapping advantage in a field where most rivals are on raised or unchanged marks. Nicky Richards (17% career strike rate, 273 runners) is one of the most reliable northern jump yards, and Danny McMenamin at 16% is a high-quality booking. The market has shortened 37% (Mkt:in41% — presumably a data-label quirk but the direction is strongly inward), confirming stable confidence. Distance is moderate rather than proven (DistFit:~) and going is moderate (GoingFit:~), which are manageable caveats given the course record and the weight relief. Each-way alternative: Coventry. Main danger: U S Marshall — U S Marshall (SR:88, 4/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field and, despite DistFit:- and GoingFit:?, is backed by the Greenall/Guerriero yard at 15% strike rate over 1,067 runners — if the headgear (p) sparks improvement on a lenient mark, the raw SR advantage could tell.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Rickety Gate is 11 years old with a 138-day absence and a recent form line of 34P-77 — the pull-up and two 7th-place finishes suggest declining ability, not a horse building toward a win.
  • U S Marshall (SR:88) and La Lolita (SR:86) both carry superior speed ratings at shorter prices (4/1), meaning Rickety Gate faces meaningfully higher-rated rivals despite the 6lb mark drop.
  • Both distance and going are flagged as moderate fits (~), so the course record may be from different conditions; today's combination of going and trip is not confirmed to suit.
  • Lady Phoebe (SR:85, in41% market move, MarkMv:+35) is being backed just as aggressively despite a much lighter weight (10-12) and more recent racecourse form (22 days), representing a live market riv…
Shortlist Rickety Gate, Coventry, U S Marshall, Lady Phoebe
Each-way: Coventry Danger: U S Marshall

🗺 The Course Class 5

2m3f218y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Carlisle Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade