Nouvel Espoir has been consistent, with a win two starts back and three seconds before that, but he was only fifth last time out just five days ago. Carrying 140 lb from draw 8, he has run over today's trip and going, yet our rating of 76 ranks him 13th of 17.
Form last 6322215
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR76RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lilli's Angel won last time out, but she was eighth and ninth in two of her three runs before that, and our figures rank her 15th of 17 at 74. Fresh from a run 13 days ago and with experience of today's trip and going, she still carries 139 lb off an official 78.
Form last 69841
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
76SR75RPR78OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Motta Alta arrives fit after 21 days, with two thirds and a win in her last five starts, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 82 ranks her fourth of 17, but a fifth last time out and 138 lb are the concerns.
Form last 661335
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR82RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Real Force is our top-rated runner, having run over today's trip and on this going before, and he returns fresh after 16 days; a fourth three starts back is his best recent effort, though he has been unplaced last time out. Our 88 rating, 12 clear of his official 76, makes him the one to beat from draw 4.
Form last 650-400
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
56SR88RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Winless in his last six, Spodo Komodo is hard to fancy, though a fourth last time out, just ten days ago, and a second five starts back show some ability; he has run over today's trip and our figures still rank him 16th of 17, carrying 138 lb from stall 16.
Form last 6020074
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR72RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tropical Retreat has been well beaten in her last four outings after a win five starts back, and a 111-day absence raises fitness questions, though she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 79 sits above her official 76, but 138 lb from stall 11 is a hefty load.
Form last 61000-0
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR79RPR76OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Tolebi has been consistent without troubling the judge, finishing fourth, fifth and fifth before an eighth last time out, though he is winless in his last six and has run over today's trip and going. Fresh enough after 16 days, he drops in from 137 lb off a mark of 75, and our 81 ranking of fifth of 17 suggests a midfield chance from stall one.
Form last 6404558
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR81RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Ballintogher won last time out and has a second and a fifth in his other recent runs, and he has run over today's trip and going before, but 335 days off is a big concern. Carrying 136 lb from stall 17, he sits ninth of 17 on our ratings.
Form last 6/5251-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR78RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Back quickly after five days off, Go Athletico was a ninth last time out but a fourth two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going, though he is yet to win in his last six outings. Our rating of 81 sits above his official 74, but 136 lb from stall five is a stiff ask.
Form last 6560049
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR81RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sixth last time out and quick back after eight days, Gypsy Queen has a win four starts back to point to and has run over today's trip, but she's been unplaced and eighth since, and 136 lb from stall three is a lot to carry; our rating of 78 puts her only eleventh of 17.
Form last 6518-06
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
67SR78RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 67 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Heddon Street was unplaced last time out, though a pair of seconds and a win four starts back show he's been in the frame recently, and he has run over today's trip and going. Rated 75 and ranked 14th of 17 by us, with 135 lb from stall 12, he's hard to fancy.
Form last 61-220
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR75RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Nakamura is only eight days since his last run and has run over today's trip and on this going, while our rating of 82 ranks him second of 17, making him a clear threat from stall seven. The risk is form that has tailed off, with unplaced efforts in his last two and a second five starts back his best finish.
Form last 6820700
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR83RPR73OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Michael's Well makes appeal as a leading danger, with our rating ranking him third of 17 and a win five starts back, while he has run over today's trip and going and returns fresh after 16 days. The main risk is that he has finished seventh last time out, and no better than a fifth since that win.
Form last 61-6857
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR82RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
All The Girls was fourth last time out, 18 days ago, and a second three starts back is her best finish in a winless run of six, though she has run over today's trip. Carrying 130 lb from stall 10, she sits mid-pack on our rating of 76, ranked twelfth of 17.
Form last 6638254
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR77RPR69OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Apache Outlaw has run over today's trip and going, and was third and second in the frame earlier in this spell, but he's slipped to a sixth and then a ninth in his last two starts, and a quick five-day turnaround adds a question. Our rating of 80 sits well above his official 67, though he's yet to win in his last six and carries 129 lb from draw 9.
Form last 6323969
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
71SR80RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out and a winner three starts back, Merisi Diamond has run over today's trip and going, though a 42-day break and a fifth two starts ago temper the case. Carrying 129 lb from stall 14, his 78 rating sits tenth of 17.
Form last 6673153
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR78RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Rosato was unplaced last time out and returns just two days later, a quick turnaround that is hard to like, though she won two starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 129 lb from draw 15, she is ranked last of 17 on our figures.
Form last 6209410
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
72SR68RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 72 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lilli's Angel owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (42) and market confidence (70). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/2Daniel McLoughlinConor Cusack(7)
69%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Nouvel Espoir
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · James M Barcoe✓ Value Signal
Heddon Street
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Leonard Paul Flynn◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Merisi Diamond (SR:80, 6/1, 9-3) is the joint-top SR in the field yet carries the lightest weight of the three SR:80 horses — a significant lbs advantage over Nouvel Espoir (10-0) and Motta Alta (9-12). The course record of W3P5 at the Curragh is the strongest course-specialist profile in the race, and the MarkMv:-2 signals she is running off a mark fractionally below her last winning mark. Dylan Browne McMonagle (17% career strike rate, 1,743 runners) is the standout jockey booking here, far superior to any other rider in the field. While GoingFit:? is the one uncertainty, her course record across multiple visits suggests she handles Curragh conditions, and the market has held relatively firm at 6/1.
Each-way alternative: Michael's Well.
Main danger: Michael's Well — Michael's Well (SR:71, 10/1, 9-7) has steamed in 21% (Mkt:in21%), carries the lightest weight among the market-fancied runners, and the tongue-tie application plus that sharp market move suggests connections are expecting a performance well above his recent form figures.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
42-day absence with HG:tp (tongue-tie and hood) suggests she needed equipment to control her last time; returning fresh with no recent racecourse sharpener is a risk in a competitive 17-runner handic…
Trainer Thomas Coyle strikes at just 4% (235 runners) — the weakest trainer strike rate among the leading fancies, making the jockey booking look more opportunistic than stable confidence.
Recent form figures 673153 show she has been running into placings and one win but has failed to score in her last three outings, suggesting she may be on a declining curve rather than a peak.
Michael's Well (Mkt:in21%) and Go Athletico (Mkt:in12%) are both attracting strong market support today, suggesting informed money is going elsewhere in this field despite Merisi Diamond's ostensible…
ShortlistMerisi Diamond, Michael's Well, Lilli's Angel, Go Athletico