Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Major Triumph owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (85) and market confidence (85). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
10/3Aidan O'BrienRyan Moore
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Sonny Hayes
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/2 · Robson De Aguiar✓ Value Signal
One Flash
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Adrian Sexton◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Major Triumph (SR:153, 7/4) is the clear SR leader in this field by 2 points over Sonny Hayes, trained by Aidan O'Brien with a 22% career strike rate and ridden by Ryan Moore (24% strike rate — the strongest jockey booking on the card). His form figure of 3 on debut is solid for a maiden, showing he already ran competitively, and a 9-day turnaround from O'Brien is a positive signal — the yard only runs horses back quickly when they believe there's a race to be won. He is the yard's #1 runner given Moore over Cleary on Tabasco River, and Tabasco River has drifted 16% in the market. The market at 7/4 reflects genuine confidence with no noted drift.
Each-way alternative: Sonny Hayes.
Main danger: Sonny Hayes — Sonny Hayes (SR:151, 10/3) is the second-highest-rated horse in the field, holds no market drift, and De Aguiar's yard has singled him out as their #1 with O'Connor aboard over Roche on Rejoinder — his debut fourth is a workmanlike platform and the price says the market respects his chance.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Major Triumph's only form figure is a '3' — third on debut — giving minimal evidence he can win; he's yet to break his maiden and faces the pressure of 7/4 market expectation.
Sonny Hayes (SR:151) is only 2 points behind and returns after 21 days with a stronger fresh record implied by his form figure of '4' — a tight SR gap makes the margin for error razor-thin at these o…
A 9-day turnaround is extremely quick for a 2-year-old; while O'Brien does it deliberately, the physical toll of racing back this fast on a still-maturing juvenile is a genuine concern, especially at…
Shake It Out (SR:146) showed a '6' on debut — closer than Major Triumph's '3' — and has had 24 days to improve; at 13/2 with a 14% market drift possibly already priced in, it represents a live threat…