Jeriko du Reponet was runner-up twice in his last five starts, a second four starts back and another five back, and he has run over today's trip and going before; our top-rated runner, he is yet to win in that spell and returns after 192 days off, but his 159 lb is workable.
Form last 62250P-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
140SR141RPR140OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Royal Infantry has run over today's trip and going, and a second three starts back and a third five starts back show he can get involved, with our rating ranking him second of three. The main risk is a 188-day absence, plus 159 lb and a ninth two starts back.
Form last 635295-
★AI Rating★★★★☆
139SR136RPR138OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Welonlyhavedone has a third three starts back to point to and has run on today's going, but he's yet to win in his last five, with an unseated, a pulled up and a fell in that spell. Top weight of 159 lb after 197 days off is the main risk.
Form last 6FP3PU-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR119RPR133OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Royal Infantry owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (77) and market confidence (98). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
2/5Dan SkeltonHarry Skelton
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Jeriko du Reponet
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · Ben Haslam✓ Value Signal
Welonlyhavedone
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
8/1 · Sandy Thomson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Royal Infantry (SR:139, 10/11) is the favourite and the data supports it. The Skelton yard runs at 22% and Harry Skelton at 26% — among the sharpest connections in jump racing — and the horse drops a class (ClassMv:↓1), which is a meaningful positive in a three-runner beginners' chase. The market has firmed 7% (Mkt:in7%), while the chief rival Jeriko du Reponet has drifted 6% (Mkt:out6%), suggesting informed money is clearly siding with Royal Infantry. The tongue-tie application (HG:t) is consistent with connections making a specific adjustment for this run, and the moderate distance and going fit (DistFit:~, GoingFit:~) is no worse than Jeriko's unproven record at both (DistFit:?, GoingFit:?).
Each-way alternative: Jeriko du Reponet.
Main danger: Jeriko du Reponet — Jeriko du Reponet holds a 1lb SR edge (140 vs 139), carries identical weight, and Harry Cobden is an elite jump jockey — if the drift is merely price movement rather than a genuine negative, the higher SR could prove decisive in what is a small, evenly-matched field.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Royal Infantry has been off the track for 188 days, and his last run ended in a '5' (fifth place) — a horse returning from a six-month absence with no recent winning form is a risk.
His form string 35295- shows no chase win and a last-time-out pull-up or last-place finish; he has not convincingly beaten rivals in recent starts despite presumably facing comparable fields.
The tongue-tie is being applied for the first time or as a specific adjustment (HG:t), which introduces uncertainty — first-time headgear interventions can unsettle or fail to produce the desired eff…
Jeriko du Reponet holds a marginally higher SR (140 vs 139) and is trained by Cobden at 22% — the market drift on Jeriko may reflect stable confidence issues rather than genuine weakness in the horse…
ShortlistRoyal Infantry, Jeriko du Reponet
Each-way: Jeriko du ReponetDanger: Jeriko du Reponet