Conquer The Breeze arrives with four wins in his last six starts, including a second last time out, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. Carrying 168 lb after 34 days off is the one query, but our top-rated runner is the one to beat.
Form last 6114112
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
106SR107RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 106 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Codger's Rock arrives in rising form, third last time out and a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. Quick back-out just two days later is the main risk, along with 164 lb on his back.
Form last 6606923
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
95SR102RPR104OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 95 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fifth last time out and a third five starts back, Kool Raoul has run over today's trip and going before, and with our figures ranking him second of nine he's a leading danger off 161 lb. The risk is a 190-day absence, as he's yet to win in his last five starts.
Form last 635785-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR106RPR101OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Unplaced last time out and off for 207 days since, and a fifth two starts back, Forest Blaze is hard to fancy, though he was second three starts back and again five starts back, and has run over today's trip and going. A weight of 160 lb doesn't help, and our figures rank him seventh of nine.
Form last 623250-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR101RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five, The Jeweller's Pet signed off with a second last time out and a third before that, but he returns after 239 days off and carries 159 lb, which makes him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going, and our figures rank him eighth of nine.
Form last 64U432-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR100RPR99OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Well Educated has been going close, with a second last time out and four runner-up finishes in his last six, and he's fresh enough after 18 days, having run over today's trip and going. Yet to win in that spell, he carries 156 lb off 96, which looks a hefty burden for a midfield type.
Form last 6222402
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
94SR102RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Lester Mail has been consistent, finishing fourth last time out, fourth two starts back and a fifth three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before; our rating of 102 sits well above his official 95. The risk is a 167-day absence, and he is yet to win in recent starts while carrying 155 lb.
Form last 60454-4
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR102RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out and only 18 days ago, Les's Legacy is fit and has run over today's trip and going, but he's yet to win in his last five starts and a fifth and an eighth before that show his limits. Carrying 152 lb off 92, he looks a mid-pack type, though our rating of 102 hints at a little more.
Form last 60-4853
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR102RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mickthesoldier is winless in his last five, though a fourth last time out and a third two starts back show some consistency, and he has run on today's going before. A 148-day absence and 144 lb are hard to overlook, and our rating ranks him last of nine.
Form last 64P-734
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
73SR87RPR84OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 73 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Conquer The Breeze owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (59) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Adam NicolRyan Mania
68%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Codger's Rock
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/4 · Cian Collins✓ Value Signal
The Jeweller's Pet
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
20/1 · Ian Duncan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Conquer The Breeze (SR:106, 10/3) is the clear SR leader in this field by at least 11 points, and his Course:W4P5 record at Hexham is exceptional — no other runner comes close to that level of course expertise. He drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) and runs off a mark 2lb lower than his last win (MarkMv:-2), giving connections every reason to expect a forward showing. The 12% market drift (Mkt:out12%) is the one concern and is likely attributable to DistFit:- at 2m4f, but his recent form string 114112 shows consistent competitiveness and his GoingFit:~ suggests he handles today's good ground adequately if not ideally. At 10/3 he is the logical selection despite the drift — no rival has a comparable combination of raw ability, course record, and class drop.
Each-way alternative: Well Educated.
Main danger: Les's Legacy — Les's Legacy (SR:91, 8/1) has shown a 7% market move inward (Mkt:in7%), carries a very favourable mark 13lb below his last win (MarkMv:-13), and boasts a Course:W4P8 record at Hexham that rivals the selection's course expertise — if the going and distance concerns prove manageable he could outrun his price.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
DistFit:- at 2m4f is a concrete flag — Conquer The Breeze has not proven effective at this trip, and the 12% market drift strongly suggests connections or informed money share that doubt.
The 12% drift is sizeable and unexplained by the analyst beyond DistFit — combined with HG:t (tongue-tie, equipment flag), this market move carries real informational weight against him today.
Well Educated (SR:94, Course:W4P12) has a far deeper Hexham course record over 16 runs and is 10lb lower in the weights (MarkMv:-10), making him a legitimate course specialist threat at a generous 13…
Les's Legacy (MarkMv:-13, Course:W4P8, Mkt:in7%) is being backed in sharply — a horse with 12 Hexham runs, 13lb mark reduction, and positive market move is a direct course-record rival to CTB at bigg…
ShortlistConquer The Breeze, Well Educated, Les's Legacy