Newcastle (AW) 18:00 RESULTED
Class 5 20 Oct 2026

Today AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)

AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 1m5y

Official Result

AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Sandy Craic (IRE) Mark Winn · David O'Meara
    15/2
  2. 15/2
  3. 8/1
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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 55 minutes ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Danehill Star silks
Danehill Star
Age 5 · 10-0
235113
70
73
68
5
10-0
★★★☆☆
—
9/1 9/2 7/1
Danehill Star arrives in solid nick, third last time out after back-to-back wins, and has run over today's trip and going before, though he's rated 68 by us, eighth of 12, and a trainer on 2/37 lately offers little encouragement from stall three.
AI verdict

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Quiet Resolve silks
Quiet Resolve
Age 5 · 9-13
646209
69
58
73
5
9-13
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 9/1 16/1
Quiet Resolve showed he can go close with a second three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before, while our rating of 73 ranks him third of 12 from stall two. The risk is a ninth last time out and a 33-day absence, with 139 lb to carry.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Kindest Nation silks
Kindest Nation
Age 5 · 9-12
030933
68
71
78
5
9-12
★★☆☆☆
—
5/1 11/2 5/1
Kindest Nation heads the field on our figures, having finished third last time out and third again two starts back, and she returns fresh after 21 days with experience of today's trip and going. She is yet to win in her last six starts, but she is the one to beat.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Tee Aitch Aye silks
Tee Aitch Aye
Age 5 · 9-11
632145
67
68
70
5
9-11
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 13/2 17/2
Tee Aitch Aye is a consistent sort, with a win three starts back and a fourth two starts back, though he was only fifth last time out, and he's back quickly after eight days. He has run over today's trip and going, but 137 lb from draw 4 and a sixth-ranked profile at 70 suggest a midfield finish.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Sandy Craic silks
Sandy Craic
Age 3 · 9-10
223532
69
74
76
3
9-10
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 FCST 6/1
Sandy Craic arrives fit after a second last time out ten days ago, and she has been in the frame in five of her last six, having run over today's trip and going before. The one concern is that she is yet to win, and she carries 136 lb from stall 12.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Napolian silks
Napolian
Age 3 · 9-9
472655
68
54
66
3
9-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 11/1 18/1
Napolian is winless in his last six, with fifths in his last two outings and a sixth three starts back, and he's only 6 days since his last run. He has run over today's trip and a second four starts back is his best, but 135 lb from draw 7 and a ranking of tenth of twelve on our figures make him hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

7
Boubyan silks
Boubyan FAV
Age 4 · 9-8
433551
59
66
66
4
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
7/2 4/1 3/1
Boubyan won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, but he's only back after eight days and a fifth, then another fifth, sit before that win. Carrying 134 lb from stall six, he's ranked ninth of 12 on our rating, so he's hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Tasever silks
Tasever
Age 6 · 9-7
387040
63
55
72
6
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 16/1 18/1
Tasever is a leading danger on our figures, ranked fourth of twelve with a speed rating of 71, and he has run over today's trip and going before after a 25-day break from the last outing. The risk is a winless recent run, with an unplaced effort last time out and a fourth two starts back the best of his last five.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Al Muddy silks
Al Muddy
Age 6 · 9-6
55-47
62
37
57
6
9-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
80/1 33/1 80/1
Al Muddy is winless in his last four, finishing seventh last time out, and that run came 270 days ago, so fitness is a real question. He has run over today's trip and going and sits on an official 62, but our figures rank him last of twelve from draw 9.
AI verdict

SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

10
Dalamara silks
Dalamara
Age 3 · 9-4
464131
63
75
63
3
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 3/1 9/2
Dalamara arrives in fine heart, a winner last time out and a third two starts back, with a win three starts back too, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our figures rank her 11th of 12 though, and 130 lb from draw 8 looks a stiff ask.
AI verdict

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Titainium silks
Titainium
Age 5 · 9-4
7-8769
60
59
69
5
9-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
12/1 10/1 17/2
Titainium is winless in his last five, finishing ninth last time out and no better than sixth in that spell, and he returns after 57 days off; he has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 68 sits above his official 60.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

12
Alkumatic Jo Jo silks
Alkumatic Jo Jo
Age 3 · 9-2
735655
61
67
71
3
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 8/1 5/1
Alkumatic Jo Jo is yet to win in her last six, though a fifth last time out, a fifth two starts back and a third five starts back show she's consistent, and she's back quickly after eight days having run over this trip and going before. Carrying 128 lb from draw 11, she's rated 71 by us against an official 61, but she hasn't finished better than fifth lately.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Danehill Star 9/1 open 6.50 17/2 open 5.50 7/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 10/1 open 6.50 9/1 open 6.00 10/1 William Hill
2 Quiet Resolve 18/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 10.00 18/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 Bet365
3 Kindest Nation 5/1 open 9.00 11/2 open 10.00 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 Coral
4 Tee Aitch Aye 9/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 8.50 11/1 open 8.50 11/1 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 10/1 open 8.50 11/1 Coral
5 Sandy Craic 13/2 open 7.00 6/1 7/1 open 7.00 7/1 open 7.50 13/2 13/2 open 7.00 7/1 Coral
6 Napolian 22/1 open 19.00 18/1 open 12.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 Bet365
7 Boubyan 7/2 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.00 4/1 4/1 7/2 open 5.00 4/1 4/1 Coral
8 Tasever 18/1 open 34.00 18/1 open 34.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 Coral
9 Al Muddy 80/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 open 51.00 80/1 Bet365
10 Dalamara 5/1 open 4.00 5/1 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 11/2 open 4.50 11/2 Betfred
11 Titainium 12/1 open 19.00 10/1 17/2 open 15.00 17/2 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 12/1 Bet365
12 Alkumatic Jo Jo 6/1 open 11.00 5/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 11/2 open 9.50 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Boubyan

Speculative

Boubyan owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (37) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

7/2 Michael Appleby Kevin Stott
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Sandy Craic

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/2 · David O'Meara
✓ Value Signal

Napolian

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · David O'Meara
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +18.5 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
31 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 7. Boubyan
52.1 7/2
2 5. Sandy Craic
51.7 13/2
3 3. Kindest Nation
49.8 5/1
4 10. Dalamara
49.5 5/1
5 4. Tee Aitch Aye
48.9 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Dalamara
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

7
Boubyan FAV
Age 4 · 9-8
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 5 · 9-12
5/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 3 · 9-4
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 75 🐾 —

SR 75 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

12
Age 3 · 9-2
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 3 · 9-10
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 5 · 10-0
9/1
★★★☆☆ SR 73 🐾 —

SR 73 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 5 · 9-11
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 5 · 9-4
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 12/1.

2
Age 5 · 9-13
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾 —

SR 58 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 6 · 9-7
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Dalamara
Confidence: Speculative

Dalamara (SR:75, 9/2) holds the joint-top SR in the field and is proven at both this trip (DistFit:+) and this going (GoingFit:+) — the only runner to show confirmed positives on both counts. Course form is strong too (Course:W2P3), and a recent 464131 form string shows the horse in excellent heart with a last-time-out win. The step up in class (ClassMv:↑1) and a 3lb mark rise (MarkMv:+3) are the only negatives, but a 14% market drift is noted and must be acknowledged — the market is sceptical of the class jump. Against that, no other runner combines top SR, proven distance fit, proven going fit, and strong course form simultaneously, which makes Dalamara the most complete profile in the field. Each-way alternative: Kindest Nation. Main danger: Danehill Star — Danehill Star (SR:73, 13/2) brings a 235113 form string — last-time-out winner at the same class — carries blinkers, has course form (W1P1), and Marco Ghiani's 16% strike rate is strong, though the 18% market drift and a mark rise of 8lb (MarkMv:+8) are significant headwinds that could be underestimated by its price.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 14% market drift out to 9/2 is a red flag — money has moved away from Dalamara despite the strong profile, suggesting connections or market insiders have doubts about this class jump.
  • ClassMv:↑1 combined with a +3lb mark rise means Dalamara faces a materially stiffer task than the LTO win; as a 3yo carrying 9-4, the weight-for-age concession dynamic could be unfavourable against o…
  • Jockey Andrew Mullen strikes at only 10% — below the field average — and Dalamara's trainer Ben Haslam has a modest 14% strike rate with a small yard (702 runs), raising execution risk in a competiti…
  • Sandy Craic (SR:74, Stable:1 flag) is almost as well-rated, fresher (10 days), and carries 6lb less; a stable-in-form pointer plus a flat mark (MarkMv:=) makes this rival a live pace threat that coul…
Shortlist Dalamara, Danehill Star, Kindest Nation, Sandy Craic
Each-way: Kindest Nation Danger: Danehill Star

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m5y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Newcastle (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade