Ernst Blofeld arrives in good heart, third last time out and a second two starts back, and fresh enough after 17 days off. He has run over today's trip, though 143 lb is a notable burden and his only win in his last six came six starts back.
Form last 6175523
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
89SR98RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 suggests ability but 4/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Second last time out after 26 days off, he has run over today's trip and going and arrives in his best form for a while, while his 142 lb is a stiff burden. The main risk is a yard that is out of sorts, with just one winner from 21 lately.
Form last 6-50002
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR96RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Oursin won two starts back and again three starts back, with a second four starts back, but he was sixth last time out and returns after 158 days off. Carrying 141 lb off an official mark of 94, he looks a midfield type, and our rating of 88 ranks him sixth of nine.
Form last 62/11-6
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
90SR89RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Teumessias Fox has run over today's trip and going, and our figures rank him top of nine, with 101 well clear of his official 93 and a third five starts back showing his ability. The risk is clear, though: he is winless in recent starts and finished ninth last time out, 44 days ago.
Form last 6535P09
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
76SR101RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 76 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 9/1.
Dark Moon Rising won four starts back and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 92 sits well above his official 85. The risk is a seventh last time out and a yard in poor form.
Form last 6501607
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
60SR92RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Tiernan was third last time out and fresh enough after 20 days, with a win five starts back and a second three starts back in a consistent set of runs. He has run over today's trip, but a sixth two starts back and 132 lb leave him more midfield than match-winner.
Form last 6215263
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR89RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Folk Pageant has finished sixth, fifth and sixth in her last three starts, and she returns after 81 days off, so she is hard to fancy; carrying 126 lb doesn't help. In her favour, she won five and six starts back and has run over today's trip and going.
Form last 6110656
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR85RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
High Point has finished eighth and sixth in his last two runs and is winless since a victory six starts back, which makes him hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going, and is back quickly after ten days off, though our rating ranks him eighth of nine.
Form last 6100068
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR81RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Wardlaw has been in the frame in each of his last six starts, with a second last time out, a second two starts back, a second three starts back and a win four starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. Even so, he's hard to fancy: our figures rank him ninth of nine, with 118 lb to carry.
Form last 6231222
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
87SR75RPR77OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Circus of Rome owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (48) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Richard HughesFinley Marsh
66%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Ernst Blofeld
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Hamad Al Jehani✓ Value Signal
Dark Moon Rising
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Kevin Ryan◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Circus of Rome (SR 86, 11/4) is the market favourite and has shortened 10% — genuine money behind it on an AW track where it already has a course win and a place (Course:W1P1). It carries 10-2 which is manageable, runs off a mark 9lb above its last win but that is offset by a drop in trip uncertainty (DistFit:? is not a negative, merely unproven here) and proven going suitability (GoingFit:~). Richard Hughes at 15% with 1,412 career runners is a reliable handler, and Finley Marsh at 14% is in good order. The ClassMv:= means no upward class pressure, and the Mkt:in10% move is the clearest single signal in this field.
Each-way alternative: Oursin.
Main danger: Wardlaw — Wardlaw (SR 87, 5/1) has the strongest recent consistent form in the field (231222), is proven at the distance (DistFit:+) and on this going (GoingFit:+), and Sir Mark Prescott at 18% is one of the shrewdest handlers on AW — the 19% market drift is the only concern, but Prescott's runners frequently run to their mark regardless of market moves.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads -50002: five consecutive failures to win, including two zeros — Circus of Rome has not found the winner's enclosure since the course win that underpins the selection's confidence.
Running off a mark 9lb above its last win (MarkMv:+9) is a meaningful rise; in a field where Oursin (SR:90) and Wardlaw (SR:87) both rate higher on speed figures, the handicapper may have caught up w…
Tiernan (11/2) has also shortened 12% in the market today and carries 9-6 vs Circus of Rome's 10-2 — 10lb pull in the weights for a horse in similar form, representing a live danger the market move m…
DistFit:? is a genuine unknown at this trip, not merely 'unproven' — combined with recent form of 0002, there is no evidence it can reproduce its course win form at today's distance.
ShortlistCircus of Rome, Oursin, Wardlaw, Ernst Blofeld