Southwell (AW) 18:00 RESULTED
Class 6 8 Oct 2026

Thursday 8 October Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 1m13y

Official Result

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Arlecchino's Moon (GB) Clifford Lee · Mark Usher
    12/1
  2. 7/1
  3. 7/2
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Southwell (AW)

16:25–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Kaito silks
Kaito
Age 2 · 9-9
747
64
63
64
2
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
6/5 5/2 6/5
Kaito is winless in his last three, finishing seventh last time out, a fourth two starts back and a seventh three starts back, and he returns after 77 days off. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 64 matches his official mark, but he has little recent form to lean on.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 7/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Temple Court silks
Temple Court
Age 2 · 9-9
04343
64
60
71
2
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 7/2 13/2
Temple Court arrives consistent, third last time out and a fourth two starts back, while his own rating of 71 ranks second of 12 and he has run over today's trip before. The risk is a 54-day layoff, and he is yet to win in his last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Arlecchino's Moon silks
Arlecchino's Moon
Age 2 · 9-8
895
63
54
57
2
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 15/2 11/2
Winless in his last three, with a fifth last time out, a ninth two starts back and an eighth three starts back, Arlecchino's Moon is hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and going, but carrying 134 lb from draw 8 after 34 days off, he looks short of this level, with our rating of 57 ranking him tenth of twelve.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Thunda Struck silks
Thunda Struck
Age 2 · 9-6
25534
61
55
75
2
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 11/2 15/2
Thunda Struck is consistent, finishing fourth last time out and third two starts back, with a second five runs ago, and she has run over today's trip. Our top-rated runner at 75 against an official 61 is the one to beat, though she is yet to win in her last five.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Solar Mission silks
Solar Mission
Age 2 · 9-5
086
60
27
58
2
9-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 16/1 28/1
Solar Mission is yet to win in his last three starts, finishing sixth last time out after an eighth and an unplaced effort, though he's fresh enough off 17 days and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 131 lb from draw 4, he's ranked eighth of 12 by our rating, so a midfield finish looks likelier.
AI verdict

SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.

6
Unbeatable Fame silks
Unbeatable Fame
Age 2 · 9-3
76370
58
34
66
2
9-3
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 33/1 40/1
Unbeatable Fame is a leading danger on our figures, having been third three starts back and coming here off a 35-day break, with experience on today's going. Yet to win in his last five starts, though, and an unplaced run last time out is the main concern.
AI verdict

SR 34 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

7
Casablanca Dream silks
Casablanca Dream
Age 2 · 9-2
6553
57
55
64
2
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
13/2 5/2 6/1
Casablanca Dream was third last time out, 21 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going, but she is winless in her last four and finished fifth twice before that. Our rating of 64 ranks her fifth of 12, so she looks a midfield type carrying 128 lb from stall 12.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Courage Best silks
Courage Best
Age 2 · 9-1
990452
56
58
67
2
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
17/2 7/2 8/1
Courage Best bounced back with a second last time out just 10 days ago, and she has run over today's trip before, while our rating of 67 ranks her third of 12 and well clear of her official 56. The main risk is a yard going 0/20 over the last 14 days.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Strong Performance silks
Strong Performance
Age 2 · 9-0
896
55
47
56
2
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
10/1 9/1 17/2
Strong Performance is winless in his last three, finishing sixth last time out after a ninth and an eighth, so he is hard to fancy. He has run over today's trip and returns after 21 days, but our rating of 56 ranks him 11th of 12.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.

10
Purrista silks
Purrista
Age 2 · 8-9
305905
50
29
60
2
8-9
★☆☆☆☆
—
100/1 33/1 40/1
Purrista was fifth last time out just eight days ago, so she's fit, but she's winless in her last six starts and has a third six starts back as her best recent finish. Our rating of 60 sits above her official 50, though ranking seventh of 12 says midfield, drawn 1 and carrying 121 lb.
AI verdict

SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

11
Le Grand Etoile silks
Le Grand Etoile
Age 2 · 8-5
90575
46
40
57
2
8-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
18/1 12/1 16/1
Le Grand Etoile is hard to fancy, winless in his last five with a fifth last time out, a seventh two starts back and a ninth five runs ago, and he returns after 45 days off. He has run over today's trip and carries 117 lb from stall seven, but our rating ranks him ninth of twelve.
AI verdict

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

12
Ubettanotblink silks
Ubettanotblink
Age 2 · 8-4
866
33
13
37
2
8-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 33/1 28/1
Ubettanotblink is hard to fancy, having finished sixth, sixth and eighth in his last three starts, so he's yet to win in that spell and ranks last of 12 on our figures. A quick 12-day turnaround and a lowly official mark of 33 offer some mitigation, but little else stands out from draw 10.
AI verdict

SR 13 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Kaito 6/5 open 6.50 6/4 open 4.33 11/8 open 3.50 11/8 open 3.50 5/4 open 3.75 6/5 open 3.50 6/4 Paddy Power
2 Temple Court 13/2 open 6.00 13/2 open 4.50 7/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 5.00 13/2 open 5.50 7/1 open 5.00 7/1 Coral
3 Arlecchino's Moon 13/2 open 13.00 11/2 open 21.00 13/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 6/1 open 11.00 7/1 open 8.50 7/1 Betfred
4 Thunda Struck 11/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 6.50 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.50 10/1 open 7.00 11/1 Bet365
5 Solar Mission 33/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 21.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 21.00 28/1 open 19.00 33/1 Bet365
6 Unbeatable Fame 66/1 open 41.00 40/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 34.00 66/1 Bet365
7 Casablanca Dream 13/2 open 3.50 6/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 3.75 7/1 open 3.75 13/2 open 4.33 6/1 open 4.00 7/1 Coral
8 Courage Best 17/2 open 4.50 8/1 open 6.00 9/1 open 5.50 9/1 open 5.50 17/2 open 6.00 10/1 open 6.00 10/1 Betfred
9 Strong Performance 10/1 open 10.00 9/1 open 11.00 10/1 10/1 17/2 open 12.00 9/1 open 11.00 10/1 Bet365
10 Purrista 100/1 open 41.00 40/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 80/1 open 41.00 80/1 open 34.00 100/1 Bet365
11 Le Grand Etoile 18/1 open 21.00 16/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 17.00 16/1 open 15.00 18/1 Bet365
12 Ubettanotblink 66/1 open 41.00 50/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 41.00 40/1 open 34.00 66/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Kaito

Speculative

Kaito owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (35) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/5 George Boughey Jack Callan
71% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Casablanca Dream

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

13/2 · Marco Botti
✓ Value Signal

Purrista

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

100/1 · Gemma Tutty
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
35 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +13.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.8 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
31 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
32 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Live signal
60 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.8 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Kaito
49.0 6/5
2 7. Casablanca Dream
46.4 13/2
3 2. Temple Court
45.8 13/2
4 3. Arlecchino's Moon
44.1 13/2
5 8. Courage Best
43.1 17/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Kaito
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 2 · 9-9
6/5
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 suggests ability but 7/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 2 · 9-9
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 60 🐾 —

SR 60 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 2 · 9-8
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-2
13/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 suggests ability but 11/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 2 · 9-1
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾 —

SR 58 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 2 · 9-0
10/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 47 🐾 —

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 10/1.

4
Age 2 · 9-6
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾 —

SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 2 · 8-5
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 40 🐾 —

SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Kaito
Confidence: Speculative

Kaito (SR:63, 7/4) is the class standout in this field and carries the highest Saturday Rating by a clear margin over the next-best pack of SR:55-60 horses. The decisive signal is the 36% market steam — money has piled in significantly, and George Boughey (18% strike rate, 1311 runners) is a high-volume yard that hits with fancied runners. Dropping three class tiers means this horse faces considerably weaker opposition than its previous runs, and while the form string 747 is unspectacular, the class descent explains it — Kaito was running in better races. Distance and going are unproven (DistFit:? / GoingFit:?) but at 1m on AW good, there is nothing in the profile to suggest an obvious incompatibility, and the weight of 9-9 is manageable for the SR carried. Each-way alternative: Arlecchino's Moon. Main danger: Arlecchino's Moon — Arlecchino's Moon (SR:54, 6/1) has steamed 42% in the market — the second-largest move in the field — Clifford Lee (17% strike rate) is a strong booking, and the class drop of two tiers gives it a genuine chance of outrunning its raw SR.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 77-day absence is the longest layoff in the field — Kaito returns from over 10 weeks off with no mention of an intervening piece of work or trial to suggest readiness, and first-time-back winners at…
  • Both DistFit and GoingFit are unknown — Kaito has no recorded form at 1m on AW, so the class advantage could be neutralised if the horse fails to handle the Fibresand/Polytrack surface or trip.
  • Jack Callan (13% strike rate, 814 runners) is a modest booking for a horse carrying market confidence — stronger Boughey runners typically attract more prominent jockeys, raising a question about sta…
  • Form string 747 shows three consecutive defeats without any placed finish; even allowing for class, a horse that genuinely threatened in better company would normally show at least one second or thir…
Shortlist Kaito, Arlecchino's Moon, Courage Best, Temple Court
Each-way: Arlecchino's Moon Danger: Arlecchino's Moon

🗺 The Course Class 6

1m13y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 6 Race grade