Roscommon 19:15 RESULTED
18 Aug 2026

Tuesday 18 August WTW Willis Handicap

WTW Willis Handicap · 7f111y

Official Result

WTW Willis Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Sagasti (IRE) Colin Keane · M D O'Callaghan
    28/1
  2. 11/2
  3. 9/1
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Chepstow

14:15–17:00 · 6 races

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Roscommon

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17:30–20:00 · 6 races

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Settled
  • 18 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Engines On silks
Engines On
Age 6 · 10-2
31-000
82
54
82
6
10-2
22/1 18/1 22/1
Engines On showed he can win at this level when scoring four starts back, but three unplaced efforts since then cast doubt on whether he has recaptured that form; 65 days off adds further uncertainty, though he has run over today's trip and going before.
AI verdict

SR 54 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

2
Summer Island silks
Summer Island
Age 4 · 9-13
631215
79
84
76
4
9-13
11/2 9/2 5/1
Ranked well down the field on our figures, Summer Island faces a stiff task from stall 17 carrying 139 lb, and that fifth last time out does little to inspire confidence; the saving graces are his experience over today's trip and going, and a winner twice in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Earls silks
Earls
Age 9 · 9-12
002223
78
85
81
9
9-12
9/2 11/2 4/1
Winless in his last six starts, Earls has been consistently close — second three of his last four completed efforts and third last time out — and he has experience over today's trip and conditions, but at 138 lb from stall 3, he faces a stiff ask to finally go one better.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Spodo Komodo silks
Spodo Komodo
Age 4 · 9-12
31-020
78
68
80
4
9-12
14/1
Spodo Komodo showed his quality with a win and a runner-up finish in recent starts, but two unplaced efforts either side temper enthusiasm; he has run over today's trip and going, and drops in at 138 lb from stall 11 on a handy 15-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Tokyo Treasure silks
Tokyo Treasure
Age 4 · 9-11
838-72
77
73
75
4
9-11
17/2 13/2 8/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 14 of 18 on our figures, Tokyo Treasure looks a tough proposition here, though he is at least fit from a run 11 days ago, has run over today's trip and going before, and his second last time out offers a crumb of hope.
AI verdict

SR 73 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Dragon Of Malta silks
Dragon Of Malta
Age 9 · 9-9
0-8045
75
63
80
9
9-9
18/1 22/1 16/1
Winless in his last five starts, Dragon Of Malta at least arrives on a quick turnaround of 21 days and has run over today's trip and going before, but modest recent efforts and 135 lb from stall eight leave him with plenty to find against 17 rivals.
AI verdict

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

7
Mehman silks
Mehman
Age 7 · 9-9
292300
75
53
79
7
9-9
33/1 FCST 28/1
Winless in his last six starts, Mehman at least showed some consistency with a second and third in that sequence, though he has been unplaced in his two most recent outings; he has run over today's trip and going before, but a rating of 79 leaves him with ground to make up from stall five carrying 135 lb.
AI verdict

SR 53 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

8
Red Hugh O'Donnell silks
Red Hugh O'Donnell
Age 5 · 9-7
-08148
73
49
69
5
9-7
22/1 20/1 22/1
Red Hugh O'Donnell finished eighth last time out and has been largely inconsistent in recent starts, winning one from his last five, and our rating ranks him near the foot of the field; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 21 days since his last run suggests he arrives fresh.
AI verdict

SR 49 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Thenandnow silks
Thenandnow
Age 3 · 9-7
-15035
79
72
82
3
9-7
11/1 17/2 10/1
Thenandnow shaped with promise when third two starts back and has experience of today's distance and going in her favour, but she needs to bounce back from a fifth last time out carrying a hefty 133 lb from stall 13.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Cool Azul silks
Cool Azul
Age 3 · 9-6
22371
W J Lee 14%
A Oliver 11%
78
86
85
3
9-6
9/2 FCST 4/1
Cool Azul arrives on the back of a win last time out and has experience of today's going, with our rating of 85 marking him out as the top-ranked runner in the field; the main concern is a 38-day absence that leaves fitness a question mark.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Dolly Hello silks
Dolly Hello
Age 4 · 9-6
7345-3
72
58
72
4
9-6
18/1 16/1 18/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked well adrift of the field on our figures, Dolly Hello faces a stiff task from stall 14 carrying 132 lb, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a manageable 35-day break.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

12
Contrary To Law silks
Contrary To Law
Age 3 · 9-5
4-6714
77
82
80
3
9-5
4/1 3/1 7/2
Contrary To Law won two starts back and returns here on a 27-day break in good heart, with experience over today's trip and conditions working in his favour; the 131 lb burden and draw 18 are the questions, but his recent winning form makes him our pick.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

13
Perfect Base silks
Perfect Base
Age 4 · 9-4
203D-0
70
55
78
4
9-4
SP FCST 18/1
Winless in her last five starts, Perfect Base does at least have experience of today's distance and going, and a draw of two could be relevant; however, 61 days off the track and a tricky recent record — including a disqualification — leave questions to answer at 130 lb.
AI verdict

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

14
Venetian Star silks
Venetian Star
Age 3 · 9-2
433020
74
57
77
3
9-2
25/1 FCST 22/1
Venetian Star returns after 40 days off winless in his last six starts, with two unplaced efforts sandwiching a second two starts back offering some encouragement, though his ranking of 12 of 18 and 128 lb from stall 15 suggest he faces a stiff task here.
AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.

15
Sagasti silks
Sagasti
Age 3 · 9-0
-63020
72
58
71
3
9-0
22/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, Sagasti is hard to fancy, though a second two starts back and experience over today's trip and going offer slim encouragement from stall ten off 126 lb.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

16
Mercurial silks
Mercurial
Age 7 · 9-4
429-42
Reserve 1
70
74
79
7
9-4
9/1 9/1 8/1
Placed second last time out and fourth two starts back, Mercurial has shown enough consistency to be of interest from stall one, though a return from 79 days off and a winless recent run of form give pause for thought at 130 lb.
AI verdict

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

17
Java Wood silks
Java Wood
Age 6 · 9-3
401307
Reserve 2
K Smith 0%
69
55
67
6
9-3
20/1
Java Wood has finished seventh last time out and unplaced two starts back, and with our figures ranking him last of 18 runners, he is hard to fancy despite the experience over today's distance and going.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

18
Flaming Rib silks
Flaming Rib
Age 7 · 9-3
0-5487
Reserve 3
69
52
84
7
9-3
SP FCST 25/1
Flaming Rib catches the eye on our ratings, ranked second of eighteen in the field, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions, returning after a sharp 15-day break; the risk is that he has been winless in his last five starts, including two poor efforts at the foot of the field.
AI verdict

SR 52 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Engines On 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 open 19.00 22/1 Bet365
2 Summer Island 11/2 open 5.50 5/1 open 5.50 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 6/1 open 5.50 11/2 open 5.50 6/1 William Hill
3 Earls 9/2 open 7.00 4/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 9/2 Bet365
4 Spodo Komodo 14/1 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 16/1 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 Paddy Power
5 Tokyo Treasure 17/2 open 8.00 8/1 open 7.50 17/2 open 8.50 17/2 open 8.50 9/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 9/1 William Hill
6 Dragon Of Malta 18/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 23.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 26.00 18/1 open 23.00 16/1 open 23.00 18/1 Bet365
7 Mehman 33/1 33/1 open 31.00 33/1 33/1 28/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 Bet365
8 Red Hugh O'Donnell 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 22/1 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 open 21.00 22/1 Bet365
9 Thenandnow 11/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 10.00 11/1 Bet365
10 Cool Azul 9/2 4/1 9/2 9/2 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 Bet365
11 Dolly Hello 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 18/1 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 Bet365
12 Contrary To Law 4/1 open 4.50 7/2 open 4.00 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.50 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 open 4.00 4/1 Bet365
13 Perfect Base 18/1 18/1 18/1 open 21.00 18/1 open 21.00 18/1 18/1 18/1 Bet365
14 Venetian Star 25/1 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 25/1 22/1 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 Bet365
15 Sagasti 22/1 22/1 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 open 26.00 22/1 22/1 22/1 Bet365
16 Mercurial 9/1 8/1 open 10.00 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 9/1 9/1 Bet365
17 Java Wood 20/1 20/1 22/1 22/1 20/1 20/1 22/1 Coral
18 Flaming Rib 25/1 25/1 25/1 open 29.00 25/1 open 29.00 25/1 25/1 25/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Earls

Speculative

Earls owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 Gavin Cromwell Gary Carroll
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Cool Azul

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/2 · A Oliver
✓ Value Signal

Venetian Star

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Patrick T Foley
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.7 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Earls
55.8 9/2
2 10. Cool Azul
54.1 9/2
3 12. Contrary To Law
53.5 4/1
4 2. Summer Island
53.5 11/2
5 16. Mercurial
49.3 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Earls
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

12
Age 3 · 9-5
4/1
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 9 · 9-12
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 3 · 9-6
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-13
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 4 · 9-11
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

16
Age 7 · 9-4
9/1
J: Reserve 1
T: John J Nallen
★★★☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Age 3 · 9-7
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 9-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 9 · 9-9
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾

SR 63 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

11
Age 4 · 9-6
18/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

17
Age 6 · 9-3
20/1
J: Reserve 2
T: K Smith
★★☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 suggests ability but 22/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Earls
Confidence: Speculative

Earls (SR:85, 5/1, 9-12) is the standout shortlist pick once the weight-adjusted SR landscape is considered. A 15% market move in — meaningful in an 18-runner handicap — signals informed money, and the form string 002223 shows consistent competitive proximity at this level. Gavin Cromwell (9% strike rate across 1,374 runners) is a high-volume operator who rarely runs a horse without a plan, and the tongue-tie/blinker combination suggests connections are pressing for the win. The concern is DistFit:- at 7f111y, but the GoingFit:~ is manageable on good ground and at 5/1 the market is clearly prepared to overlook the trip query in favour of the live market move. Each-way alternative: Cool Azul. Main danger: Cool Azul — Cool Azul (SR:86, 5/1, 9-6) is the highest-rated runner in the field, carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-6, and the recent 22371 form line shows a win last time out — A Oliver at 12% strike rate with W J Lee booked is a serious combination, and despite the 10% drift the raw ability edge is real.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Earls is 9 years old with a form string of 002223 — six consecutive runs without a win, suggesting he finds consistent ways to finish second or third without converting, a concerning pattern in an 18…
  • DistFit:- at 7f111y is a flagged concern; at age 9 with no recent evidence of staying this trip, asking him to excel at an unproven distance is a material risk.
  • Cool Azul (SR:86, 5/1) is a 3yo carrying 9-6 with a recent win (form 22371) and higher raw SR than Earls, representing a sharper, improving rival at identical odds with better age profile and recency…
  • Summer Island (SR:84, 5/1) has won more recently, carries just 1lb more, and is trained by a yard firing at 9% with DBM (15% strike rate) in the saddle — Earls' jockey Gary Carroll sits at 9%, a mean…
Shortlist Earls, Cool Azul, Summer Island, Contrary To Law
Each-way: Cool Azul Danger: Cool Azul

🗺 The Course Race conditions

7f111y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
18 Confirmed runners
Roscommon Track and setting