Salisbury 14:30 RESULTED
Class 4 12 Aug 2026

Wednesday 12 August Michael Brunton Memorial British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Michael Brunton Memorial British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 0m6f0y

Official Result

Michael Brunton Memorial British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Forbidden Fire (GB) Oisin Murphy · Andrew Balding
    5/2
  2. Second Ongombo (GB)
    18/1
  3. 7/4F
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 4 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Arctic Tsar silks
Arctic Tsar
Age 2 · 9-7
86
121
2
9-7
28/1 14/1 25/1
SR 121 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 121 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Easy Answer silks
Easy Answer
Age 2 · 9-7
30
151
2
9-7
3/1 11/4 5/2
Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
First Mate silks
First Mate
Age 2 · 9-7
77
122
2
9-7
14/1 25/1 11/1
SR 122 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 122 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Flick Of An Eye silks
Flick Of An Eye
Age 2 · 9-7
149
2
9-7
SP 9/4 3/1
Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Gold Reef City silks
Gold Reef City
Age 2 · 9-7
73
136
2
9-7
11/1 FCST 10/1
SR 136 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 136 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Goodwood Meteor silks
Goodwood Meteor
Age 2 · 9-7
96
124
2
9-7
16/1 25/1 14/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Hackpen Hill silks
Hackpen Hill
Age 2 · 9-7
84
123
2
9-7
18/1 FCST 14/1
SR 123 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 123 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Ongombo silks
Ongombo
Age 2 · 9-7
86
124
2
9-7
14/1 22/1 11/1
SR 124 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 124 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Saturn Star silks
Saturn Star
Age 2 · 9-7
150
2
9-7
11/4 3/1 5/2
SR 150 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 150 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Forbidden Fire silks
Forbidden Fire
Age 2 · 9-2
154
2
9-2
11/4 4/1 9/4
Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Arctic Tsar 28/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 33/1 William Hill
2 Easy Answer 3/1 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.75 5/2 open 3.75 10/3 William Hill
3 First Mate 14/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 26.00 12/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 26.00 12/1 open 26.00 14/1 Bet365
4 Flick Of An Eye 3/1 open 3.25 10/3 open 3.50 10/3 open 3.50 10/3 open 3.75 10/3 open 3.75 10/3 Coral
5 Gold Reef City 11/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 11/1 Bet365
6 Goodwood Meteor 16/1 open 29.00 16/1 open 26.00 16/1 open 26.00 14/1 open 26.00 14/1 open 26.00 16/1 Bet365
7 Hackpen Hill 18/1 open 41.00 16/1 16/1 14/1 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 Bet365
8 Ongombo 14/1 open 29.00 12/1 open 26.00 12/1 open 26.00 11/1 open 23.00 12/1 open 26.00 14/1 Bet365
9 Saturn Star 11/4 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.00 11/4 open 4.00 11/4 open 4.00 5/2 open 4.00 11/4 Bet365
10 Forbidden Fire 11/4 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.00 5/2 open 5.00 9/4 open 5.00 9/4 open 5.00 11/4 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Saturn Star

High conviction

Saturn Star owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (83) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Ralph Beckett Hector Crouch
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Forbidden Fire

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/4 · Andrew Balding
✓ Value Signal

Arctic Tsar

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · Clive Cox
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating High conviction
83 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +31.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 9. Saturn Star
71.9 11/4
2 10. Forbidden Fire
70.6 11/4
3 2. Easy Answer
68.7 3/1
4 4. Flick Of An Eye
64.3 -
5 5. Gold Reef City
63.8 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Forbidden Fire
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

9
Age 2 · 9-7
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 150 🐾

SR 150 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 2 · 9-2
11/4
★★★★☆ SR 154 🐾

Favourable weight of 9-2 gives a real edge in this handicap.

2
Age 2 · 9-7
3/1
★★★★☆ SR 151 🐾

Favourable weight of 9-7 gives a real edge in this handicap.

5
Age 2 · 9-7
11/1
★★★☆☆ SR 136 🐾

SR 136 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 2 · 9-7
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 122 🐾

SR 122 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 2 · 9-7
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 124 🐾

SR 124 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 2 · 9-7
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 124 🐾

SR 124 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-7
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 123 🐾

SR 123 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Forbidden Fire
Confidence: Speculative

Forbidden Fire (SR:154, 10/3) carries the highest Saturday Rating in the field and has shortened 20% in the market — the only horse showing meaningful market confidence in this race. The 5lb weight allowance (9-2 vs 9-7 for the field) is a genuine edge in a level weights novice. Andrew Balding (19% strike rate, 1,424 runners — the strongest training record in the field) combines with Oisin Murphy (21%, 1,294 runners), the highest-calibre jockey booking on the card, sending a clear signal about stable confidence. As a debutant, the SR of 154 places it comfortably above the competitive threshold, and the Balding-Murphy axis on a market mover is the single strongest alignment of signals in this race. Each-way alternative: Saturn Star. Main danger: Saturn Star — Saturn Star (SR:150, 10/3) is the Beckett yard's flagged #1 runner, carries Hector Crouch at a 17% strike rate, and shares joint-favouritism at 10/3 — if Beckett has trained this debutant specifically for Salisbury, the yard's 17% overall strike rate makes it a genuine first-time-out threat.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Forbidden Fire is a debutant (Form:------) facing Easy Answer (SR:151, form:30) and Flick Of An Eye (SR:149, form:------) — two rivals with near-identical ratings, meaning the SR edge is razor-thin a…
  • Saturn Star (SR:150, Beckett/Crouch, 10/3 joint-favourite) is also a debutant with strong stable backing and an identical price — split market confidence undermines the 'only meaningful mover' narrat…
  • Flick Of An Eye (SR:149) is trained by Simon & Ed Crisford (20% strike rate, 334 runners) — higher trainer strike rate than Balding on a smaller, more selective book, suggesting a sharply-targeted ru…
  • The 5lb weight concession from Forbidden Fire (9-2) to the field (9-7) reflects an apprentice or conditional allowance for Murphy — but Murphy riding at 9-2 against a field at 9-7 means rivals carry…
Shortlist Forbidden Fire, Saturn Star, Easy Answer
Each-way: Saturn Star Danger: Saturn Star

🗺 The Course Class 4

0m6f0y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Salisbury Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade