Expound has been winless in his last six, with a fourth three starts back his best recent effort, but he's fresh from a run 12 days ago and has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 74 sits well clear of his official 60, making him the one to beat from draw 5.
Form last 6047480
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR74RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Final Boss is winless in his last five, with unplaced efforts last time out and twice more, a sixth four starts back and a seventh two starts back, though he is fresh enough after 13 days and has run over today's trip. Carrying 140 lb from stall eight off 60, he looks a midfield type, ranked seventh of 14 by our rating.
Form last 6-06070
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR60RPR60OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
All Hail steps up from a fourth last time out and has run over today's trip and going, while our rating of 66 ranks him second of 14 in a modest field. The main risk is a yard going 0/22 lately and a winless run in his last six starts.
Form last 6409804
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
48SR67RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
Roman Harry arrives on a break of 48 days after a ninth last time out, but he was second two starts back and has run over today's trip and going before; our rating of 63 ranks him fourth of 14. The risk is a winless run in his last six and a modest recent pattern of finishes.
Form last 6309829
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR63RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Una Matata arrives fit after 12 days off, fresh from a third last time out, and she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 65 ranks her third of 14, but she is yet to win in her last six starts and carries 139 lb from draw 3.
Form last 6675073
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR65RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 3/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Whistling Jamesie won five starts back but has slipped since, with a fifth last time out, and returns after 108 days off. He has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 62 sits above his official 58, though 138 lb from stall 14 is a stiff task.
Form last 61-8005
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
49SR62RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 9/1.
Pattyandselma has finished ninth in each of her last three starts and is winless in her last four, though she's fresh enough after 23 days and has run on today's going. Carrying 137 lb from stall 1, she looks held by an official mark of 57, with our rating of 55 placing her tenth of 14.
Form last 60999
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
25SR55RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Shamanka is winless in her last five, though a sixth last time out and a fifth two starts back suggest she's competitive at this level, and she has run over today's trip and going. A 58-day break and 135 lb from draw 4 temper enthusiasm, but our rating of 62 sits well above her official 53.
Form last 6-04056
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
42SR62RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 42 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Jazzy Dancer is winless in his last six, with an eighth last time out and a second six starts back the only real highlight, though he's fresh enough after 12 days and has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 132 lb from draw 9, he looks held by a modest official mark of 50, though our rating of 58 hints at a little more.
Form last 6207908
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR58RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Winless in his last five, with unplaced efforts in each of his last three outings, Never Mind Me has at least run over today's trip and going before and returns after 33 days off. Our rating of 57 sits well above his official mark of 47, but he carries 129 lb from stall six.
Form last 6790/00
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR57RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 80/1.
Winless in his last six, Glen Breeze was seventh last time out and has finished no better than fifth in that spell, so he is hard to fancy; he has run over today's trip and going, and a 27-day break is no concern, but our ranking of 12 of 14 says plenty.
Form last 6659057
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
40SR54RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Strikepoint is winless in his last five, with unplaced efforts last time out and two starts back and a ninth three starts back, so he is hard to fancy. He is back quickly after nine days and has run over this trip and going, but our ranking of 11 of 14 says plenty.
Form last 670900
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR54RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Churchill Gale is winless in her last five, unplaced in her last two and a sixth four starts back, so she is hard to fancy after 43 days off. She has run over today's trip and going and has a lowly official rating of 38, but our rating of 50 ranks her 13th of 14.
Form last 6468-00
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR50RPR38OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Leannespour is winless in her last five, finishing seventh last time out and no better than a fourth four starts back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, and a 33-day break is no concern, but our figures rank her last of 14.
Form last 6-04857
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR48RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 9/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Una Matata owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
9/4Adrian McGuinnessSam Coen(5)
79%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Leannespour
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
11/2 · Edward Lynam✓ Value Signal
Never Mind Me
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · David Geraghty◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Una Matata (SR:59, 3/1) is the clear SR leader in this field and carries a competitive 9-13 — the highest-rated horse is not top-weight here, giving her an edge. Her MarkMv:-12 means she runs off a mark well below her last winning mark, and the market has backed her in 8% since opening. Crucially, she has an outstanding Course:W4P10 record at Dundalk AW, making her a genuine course specialist at this venue. As the McGuinness yard's designated #1 (Stable:1 flag, better jockey booking with Sam Coen vs Patrick McGettigan on Pattyandselma), connections are clearly focused on this runner, and the GoingFit:~ suggests no serious ground concern on the AW.
Each-way alternative: Roman Harry.
Main danger: Strikepoint — Strikepoint (SR:51, 7/2) is the market's second choice with a trainer strike rate of 10% and runs off just 9-1, giving a significant weight advantage over Una Matata, and the DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags mean there is no proven barrier to her performing at this trip on this surface.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Recent form reads 675073 — that sequence includes no win in the last 6 outings, and the '3' most recently was a third, suggesting she is currently below her best despite the favourable mark.
Strikepoint (SR:51, 7/2) has drifted only 10% and is fresh off a 9-day turnaround with a yard (Feane, 10% strike rate) running hot; at a 6-point SR gap to Una Matata it is a live danger at a better p…
The 8% market support looks modest for a 'clear specialist' — Roman Harry has moved in 23% and Whistling Jamesie is on course with W1P1, suggesting market participants are not fully convinced by the…
Course record of W4P10 shows she visits Dundalk frequently but wins relatively rarely (29% win rate from 14 starts), and her last win here may predate the current form slump reflected in the 675073 s…
ShortlistUna Matata, Strikepoint, Leannespour, Roman Harry