Fizzy Bear has been consistent, finishing third last time out and second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. Quick back out after two days is the main risk, though he's yet to win in his last six.
Form last 6043623
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
66SR62RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 66 suggests ability but 6/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Roccobear showed consistent form with a fourth last time out and a third three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Our top-rated runner at 66, he is yet to win in his last six, but returns 29 days since his last run.
Form last 6256354
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR66RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Chelio arrives with a second and two thirds in his last four outings, and our rating of 65 ranks him second of 8, with experience of today's trip and going; he's yet to win in recent starts, though, and an eighth last time out is the concern after 23 days off.
Form last 6682338
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
68SR65RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Melodical comes into this on the back of a third last time out, her best finish in a consistent run of fifths and a sixth, and she has run over today's trip before. Our rating of 60 sits above her official 56, though she is yet to win and carrying 132 lb from draw 7 is the main risk.
Form last 65-6553
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR60RPR56OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Crown The Future arrives in cracking recent form, second last time out and a winner two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Only four days since his last run and a cold stable (2/40) temper enthusiasm, while 131 lb from stall four is a stiff ask.
Form last 6045212
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
71SR59RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 71 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five, with finishes of ninth, sixth and eighth before two unplaced efforts, Baggie Boy is hard to fancy, and a yard going 2/40 recently doesn't help. He has run over today's trip and is rated 47 by us, seventh of eight.
Form last 69-6800
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
40SR47RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 40 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Claytons Kolatonic has run over today's trip and going and arrives fresh after 26 days, but he is winless in his last six, finishing sixth last time out, and he carries 125 lb from stall 9; our rating of 58 puts him sixth of eight.
Form last 6966506
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
46SR58RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Gloriola is winless in her last six and was unplaced last time out, which makes her hard to fancy, ranked last of eight on our figures. She has run over today's trip and is back quickly after 13 days, with a third and a second in recent form the best of it.
Form last 6052360
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
38SR47RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 38 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Crown The Future owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (39) and market confidence (98). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/11Tony CarrollMarco Ghiani
77%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Chelio
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
7/2 · Denis Coakley✓ Value Signal
Baggie Boy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
50/1 · Tony Carroll◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Chelio (SR:68, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field on a favourable weight of 9-7, drops a class (ClassMv:↓1) which is a tangible advantage, and crucially is the only runner with a proven distance record (DistFit:+) — every other runner carries DistFit:-, meaning the mile is an unknown or a documented weakness for them. The market has backed this assessment hard, steaming in 45% from opening price. Crown The Future (SR:71, 5/6F) holds the SR edge but carries MarkMv:+5, meaning it runs off a mark 5lb higher than its last win, has DistFit:- at this trip, and despite being the yard's #1 with strong market support, the combination of a higher mark and unproven mile is a specific vulnerability. Chelio's class drop plus distance fitness is a multi-signal case that justifies opposing the favourite at 7/2.
Each-way alternative: Fizzy Bear.
Main danger: Crown The Future — Crown The Future has the best SR in the field at 71, carries the lightest competitive weight of 9-5 for the yard's #1 booking (Marco Ghiani, 16% strike rate), has steamed in 36%, and the recent 045212 form includes two consecutive placed efforts — if the MarkMv:+5 and DistFit:- concern prove unfounded on the day, it wins.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Chelio's recent form reads 682338 — that final '8' means a last-place finish last time out, and no win in the sequence; a horse without a recent win signal is vulnerable even dropping a class.
Denis Coakley runs at just 11% strike rate from 329 runners, and jockey George Bass at 12% — neither is a particularly sharp handler/rider combination for a race where the market has priced Chelio at…
Fizzy Bear (6/4) ran just 2 days ago and is course-placed (W0P1 at Kempton AW), suggesting significant fitness and track-specific suitability that Chelio's field-high SR and class drop do not obvious…
Melodical at 11/4 is also shorter in the market despite a lower SR, carries 1lb less, and is trained by the high-strike Ed Walker (16%) — the market may be signalling a runner the primary analyst has…
ShortlistChelio, Crown The Future, Fizzy Bear, Melodical