Thankyou & Farewell Dr. Tim Tilsley Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Category 3 Elimination) (GBB Race) · 2m0f167y
SR 123 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 120 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 123 suggests ability but 200/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 10-10 gives a real edge in this handicap.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 He's Happy | 40/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 25/1 | 33/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Let's Have A Drink | 40/1 open 19.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 50/1 open 26.00 | 40/1 open 23.00 | 40/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 Paddy Power |
| 3 Par Avion | evn open 3.50 | 1/1 open 2.88 | 1/1 open 3.25 | 1/1 open 3.25 | 11/10 open 3.25 | 11/10 open 3.00 | 11/10 William Hill |
| 4 The Gift Shop | 7/2 open 3.50 | 7/2 open 3.25 | 10/3 open 3.50 | 10/3 open 3.50 | 10/3 open 3.50 | 7/2 open 3.50 | 7/2 Bet365 |
| 5 De Inovator | 11/2 open 4.50 | 5/1 open 3.75 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 11/2 open 4.00 | 5/1 open 4.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 6 Straw Merchant | 15/2 open 11.00 | 7/1 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 15/2 open 11.00 | 8/1 open 11.00 | 7/1 open 11.00 | 8/1 William Hill |
| 7 Miss Spec | 14/1 open 11.00 | 12/1 open 17.00 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 open 15.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Hottentotta | 250/1 open 67.00 | 200/1 open 126.00 | 200/1 open 101.00 | 200/1 open 101.00 | 200/1 open 101.00 | 200/1 open 126.00 | 250/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Storm Cracker | 14/1 open 5.50 | 12/1 open 8.00 | 12/1 open 6.50 | 12/1 open 6.50 | 12/1 open 6.50 | 14/1 open 7.50 | 14/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
The Gift Shop owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (84). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-3 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 143 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 10-10 gives a real edge in this handicap.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Par Avion (SR 153, 15/8) is the market favourite and has been backed in 12% since opening — meaningful money in a maiden NHF where stable confidence is the primary signal. Harry Fry (17% career strike rate from 167 runners) is a solid yard for bumpers, and Bryan Carver at 13% from 386 rides is a competent booking. The Gift Shop holds the marginally superior SR (154) and the Skelton/Skelton combination is elite, but the market has elected to make Par Avion favourite and The Gift Shop shows no drift — meaning the market sees them as very close, and Par Avion's 12% shortening tips the balance. In a 9-runner maiden with universal DistFit:? and GoingFit:? across all runners, the strongest single discriminator is which horse the market trusts most, and that is Par Avion. Each-way alternative: The Gift Shop. Main danger: The Gift Shop — The Gift Shop carries the joint-top SR (154) with a winning debut run and the Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton partnership — the highest combined strike-rate team in the race — giving it a genuine case to reverse market order.