Power Fizz won last time out and was also a winner four starts back, so he arrives in good heart, having run over today's trip and on this going before. The risk is a 33-day break and 137 lb from stall 17, with our rating of 95 making him a leading threat.
Form last 64-1001
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
87SR95RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 87 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Our top-rated runner, Northern Express won four starts back and was third three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before, though a ninth last time out and a stable at 0/27 are the reservations. Our 104 against his official 95 sets him apart, and he is fresh enough after 20 days off.
Form last 6551359
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
86SR105RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 86 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ozat rates a leading danger, with our figures ranking him second of 18 and a third two starts back showing he can still run well, plus he has run over today's trip and going before. The main risk is a seventh last time out and no win in his last six starts.
Form last 6080037
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR100RPR95OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Beagle Bay arrives with three wins in his last five starts, including back-to-back victories latest, and has run over today's trip and going before, but 118 days off the track raises fitness doubts and 134 lb is a notable burden from draw 9. Our rating of 95 ranks him fifth of 18.
Form last 62-1411
★AI Rating★★★★☆
105SR95RPR94OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 backed by market confidence at 11/8 — a genuine contender.
Three wins in his last six starts, including a win two starts back and another three starts back, make for strong recent form, though he was unplaced last time out, 27 days ago. He has run over today's trip and going, but 132 lb from stall 18 and our rating of 91, ranked twelfth of 18, leave him a midfield proposition.
Form last 6212110
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
91SR91RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Nikovo was fifth last time out, but he won two starts back and has been placed twice in his last six, while having run over today's trip and going before. A 34-day break and a mid-pack ranking of 10 of 18 on our rating temper the appeal, carrying 132 lb from stall four.
Form last 6543315
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR94RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mirsky bounced back with a second two starts back, but he was unplaced last time out and has finished ninth in three of his other recent runs, so he remains winless in his last six. He has run over today's trip and going, is fresh after 27 days, and our rating of 94 sits just above his official 92, though 132 lb from stall seven asks plenty.
Form last 6799920
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
65SR95RPR92OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Henlein bounced back with a second last time out, just seven days ago, and has run over today's trip and on this going before, while our rating of 98 ranks him third of 18; the risk is that he is yet to win in his last six starts and carries 130 lb from stall 12.
Form last 6700802
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
83SR98RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 83 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Spoken Truth arrives in solid form, third last time out and a winner two starts back, with 20 days since that run and experience over today's trip and going. Carrying 130 lb from draw 1, though, he sits ninth of 18 on our rating of 94, so he looks more of a midfield player than a threat.
Form last 6264313
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR94RPR90OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Mr Swivell has run over today's trip and going, but he's finished eighth, seventh and eighth in his last three outings, with a second four starts back his best recent effort. He's had 20 days off and our rating of 94 sits above his official 89, though he is yet to win in recent form.
Form last 6042878
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR95RPR89OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Khafiz has run over today's trip and going before, but he's yet to win in his last six, finishing seventh last time out, with a fourth three starts back, and another fourth four starts back. A 33-day break and our 93 rating, ranked 11 of 18, point to a midfield role from stall 8.
Form last 6004407
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
61SR93RPR87OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Nizam is hard to fancy, unplaced in each of his last four runs and winless in his last six, with a seventh five starts back his best recent finish. He has run over this trip and on this going, and 13 days since his last outing is fine, but our rating ranks him 15th of 18.
Form last 6070000
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
59SR86RPR86OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Runner-up last time out and a winner four and five starts back, but he has been unplaced in the two runs between and returns after just eight days. He has run over today's trip and going, yet our rating of 84 ranks him 16th of 18, and 125 lb from stall 16 is a tough ask.
Form last 6-11002
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR84RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Point of Contact has run over today's trip and on this going, and his 23-day break is no concern, but a seventh last time out and a fifth two starts back show only modest recent form. His one win came five starts back, and our rating of 94 puts him eighth of 18 under 125 lb from stall three.
Form last 6618457
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
81SR94RPR85OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 suggests ability but 11/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Military Leader was unplaced last time out after a run of four seconds and a win in his previous five, and that dip makes him hard to fancy; our figures have him 14th of 18. He has run over today's trip and going, and 19 days since his last run is no concern.
Form last 6222120
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
68SR86RPR83OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 68 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six, Final Night was fourth last time out after a second two starts back and another second three starts back, so he is consistent without getting his head in front lately. He has run over today's trip and on this going, but ranking 17th of 18 on our figures, carrying 122 lb from stall 13, makes him hard to fancy.
Form last 6360224
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
64SR82RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 64 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Glenfinnan has slipped to a fifth last time out and an eighth before that, and with his yard 0/27 in the last 14 days he is hard to fancy. A win three starts back and previous experience of today's trip and going are in his favour, but our rating of 80 ranks him last of 18.
Form last 6420185
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR81RPR81OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 66/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Salam Dubawi is hard to fancy, unplaced last time out and winless in his last six, with a sixth two starts back and a fourth five starts back his best recent efforts. He has run over this trip and going and is fit after 13 days, but the yard is cold at 1/34, and our rating of 87 ranks him 13th of 18.
Form last 6D40060
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
80SR87RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Beagle Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/8Ralph BeckettHector Crouch
74%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Spoken Truth
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
13/2 · David O'Meara✓ Value Signal
Nikovo
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Michael Herrington◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Beagle Bay (SR 105, 11/8) is the clear class standout in this field — the next-best SR is Spoken Truth at 94, a 11-point gap that is decisive at this level. Carrying 9-8 after dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1), the weight is workable and proven distance and going credentials (DistFit:+, GoingFit:+) mean conditions are ideal. The 12% market support (Mkt:in12%) confirms professional confidence despite 118 days off, and Ralph Beckett (19% strike rate, 1713 runners) is a trainer who targets big-field handicaps with freshened horses. The recent form of 2-1411 shows progressive, consistent winning form at this class, with the class drop providing an additional edge over rivals struggling to match the SR benchmark.
Each-way alternative: Spoken Truth.
Main danger: Spoken Truth — Spoken Truth (SR 94, 7/1) is O'Meara's yard pick over Mirsky (confirmed by Daniel Tudhope booking vs Mark Winn), drops a class, has a positive going record (GoingFit:+), and recent form of 264313 shows consistency at a mark only 5lb above his last win — he is the most credible threat to Beagle Bay at a realistic price.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
118-day layoff is a significant fitness question — Beckett's 19% strike rate covers all runners, not specifically horses returning after 16+ weeks off, and the form line 2-1411 shows Beagle Bay last…
Despite 12% market support (in), the odds of 11/8 imply ~42% win probability — in an 18-runner handicap, that is a very short price for a horse off a 4-month break, leaving almost no margin for anyth…
Inspired (SR:91, MarkMv:+12) has shown a sharp recent form trajectory with a course win, racing just 27 days ago — a fresher, improving rival with course form at a much bigger price represents a live…
Carrying 9-8 as the top weight on a class drop in a large 18-runner field increases the risk of being caught in traffic or racing wide, especially returning from a long break where Beagle Bay may not…
ShortlistBeagle Bay, Spoken Truth, Inspired, Mr Swivell