Redcar 16:07 RESULTED
Class 4 23 Sep 2026

Wednesday 23 September Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) · 1m2f1y

Official Result

Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Rizal (FR) Darragh Keenan · George Scott
    5/1
  2. Second Optician (GB)
    12/1
  3. 4/1F
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

Goodwood

13:30–17:00 · 7 races

Redcar

13:47–17:17 · 7 races

Listowel

13:55–17:22 · 7 races

Perth

14:47–17:07 · 5 races

Kempton (AW)

16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Rizal silks
Rizal
Age 4 · 10-2
6-3114
82
85
77
4
10-2
★★★☆☆
—
3/1 9/4 11/4
Rizal won two of his last five starts, scoring back-to-back two and three runs back, but was fourth last time out and our rating of 77 leaves him below the top end of this field; experience over today's trip and going offers some encouragement, though 142 lb is no help.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Percy's Daydream silks
Percy's Daydream
Age 4 · 10-0
144452
80
77
90
4
10-0
★★☆☆☆
—
6/1 FCST 11/2
Percy's Daydream ran a fine second last time out and has experience of today's distance and going, making her an appealing proposition; she carries 140 lb from stall 10, yet her superior rating over these 12 rivals marks her as the one to beat.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Everyoneknowsadave silks
Everyoneknowsadave
Age 4 · 9-11
321428
77
70
78
4
9-11
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 10/1 12/1
Finished second two starts back and has experience of today's trip and going, but that eighth last time out gives pause, and 137 lb from stall 12 makes life no easier for a horse ranked sixth of twelve.
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Optician silks
Optician
Age 6 · 9-8
015293
74
69
82
6
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
15/2 8/1 13/2
Optician shaped well last time out with a third, and a winner five starts back shows he retains the ability to deliver; he has run over today's trip and going, and at 134 lb the weight is the chief concern.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Domination silks
Domination
Age 3 · 9-6
-14133
77
83
83
3
9-6
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 FCST 5/1
Domination shaped as a clear danger, winning three starts back and posting back-to-back thirds in his two most recent outings to arrive in solid nick; he has run over today's trip and going, and at 132 lb the weight burden is the chief risk to his claims.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Poet's Dawn silks
Poet's Dawn
Age 11 · 9-6
111793
72
61
73
11
9-6
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 11/1 16/1
Ranked near the foot of our assessments in an 11-of-12 rating, Poet's Dawn faces a stiff ask, and the absence of a win in his most recent three starts overshadows three wins further back; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 22 days between runs suggests he is at least fit.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

7
Night Wolf silks
Night Wolf
Age 3 · 9-5
53-69
76
51
84
3
9-5
★☆☆☆☆
—
50/1 33/1 40/1
Third three starts back keeps Night Wolf firmly in the mix here — he has experience of today's going and our rating of 84 suggests he holds solid claims against this field, yet his two latest efforts have been below that level and he needs to rediscover that form to threaten.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

8
Ciao Capo silks
Ciao Capo
Age 3 · 9-2
411613
73
81
75
3
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1 7/1 13/2
Ranked ninth of twelve on our figures, Ciao Capo is hard to fancy at the weights despite a third last time out and a win two starts back, and while he has experience over today's trip and going, his speed rating of 67 leaves him up against it here.
AI verdict

SR 81 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
His Finest Hour silks
His Finest Hour
Age 5 · 9-2
2-3250
68
61
79
5
9-2
★☆☆☆☆
—
11/1 14/1 11/1
Yet to score in his last five starts, His Finest Hour does at least bring distance and going experience to the table, and 12 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh; the concern is that unplaced effort last time, though second and third finishes earlier in the sequence show he can get involved.
AI verdict

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

10
Borjina silks
Borjina
Age 3 · 9-1
-17253
72
63
71
3
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
12/1 8/1 10/1
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and rated just 71, Borjina is hard to fancy despite a place last time out and a win in her last five starts, though she has run over today's going before and arrives fit enough on a 20-day break.
AI verdict

SR 63 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Saxophonist silks
Saxophonist
Age 3 · 9-1
-33522
72
77
76
3
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1 5/1 11/2
Consistent without quite landing the prize, Saxophonist has finished second in each of his last two starts yet remains winless in his last five, and 46 days off the track is a query; he has experience over today's trip and going, but an official mark of 72 and a draw of seven leave him with plenty to find against stronger rivals.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Mayflower Billy silks
Mayflower Billy
Age 3 · 8-9
825634
66
57
73
3
8-9
★★☆☆☆
—
22/1 14/1 22/1
Mayflower Billy has been winless in his last six starts, with only a third two runs back offering any encouragement, and a ranking of tenth of twelve on our figures makes him hard to fancy; he does return quickly fit after 12 days and has experience of today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 57 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Rizal 3/1 11/4 open 4.00 10/3 open 4.00 10/3 open 4.00 3/1 11/4 open 3.25 10/3 Coral
2 Percy's Daydream 6/1 6/1 open 6.50 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 open 7.00 6/1 Bet365
3 Everyoneknowsadave 12/1 12/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 13.00 14/1 Coral
4 Optician 15/2 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.00 15/2 open 9.50 15/2 Bet365
5 Domination 11/2 open 8.00 5/1 11/2 open 7.00 11/2 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 Betfred
6 Poet's Dawn 22/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 17.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 Paddy Power
7 Night Wolf 50/1 open 34.00 40/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 66/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 34.00 66/1 Coral
8 Ciao Capo 7/1 open 8.50 13/2 open 10.00 7/1 open 9.00 7/1 open 9.00 13/2 open 9.00 7/1 7/1 Bet365
9 His Finest Hour 11/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 15.00 12/1 Paddy Power
10 Borjina 12/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 9.00 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 Bet365
11 Saxophonist 7/1 open 6.50 7/1 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 11/2 open 6.00 15/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 15/2 William Hill
12 Mayflower Billy 22/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Rizal

Speculative

Rizal owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 George Scott Darragh Keenan
70% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Domination

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Harriet Bethell
✓ Value Signal

Poet's Dawn

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Tim Easterby
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Rizal
54.1 3/1
2 5. Domination
51.7 11/2
3 8. Ciao Capo
50.2 7/1
4 2. Percy's Daydream
50.2 6/1
5 11. Saxophonist
48.2 7/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Rizal
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 10-2
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 3 · 9-6
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 10-0
6/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾 —

SR 77 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-2
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 3 · 9-1
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾 —

SR 77 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 6 · 9-8
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾 —

SR 69 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 5 · 9-2
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 61 🐾 —

SR 61 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

3
Age 4 · 9-11
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 70 🐾 —

SR 70 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 3 · 9-1
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 63 🐾 —

SR 63 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Rizal
Confidence: Speculative

Rizal (SR 85, 5/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by two clear SR points and has been freshened by a 33-day break following a recent 4-1-1 run of form that signals peak condition. The GoingFit:+ confirms he handles today's good-to-firm surface, and a 10% market move in strongly suggests money is following him despite the MarkMv:+5 burden. Carrying 10-2 is the heaviest weight in the field, but at SR 85 his class edge over the next-best contenders (Domination SR 83, Ciao Capo SR 81) is meaningful enough to offset that penalty on good-to-firm ground where topweights are not as disadvantaged as in testing conditions. Each-way alternative: Ciao Capo. Main danger: Domination — Domination (SR 83, 6/1) carries only 9-6 — a 10lb weight advantage over Rizal — and trainer Harriet Bethell's 21% strike rate is the best in the field; a recent 3-3-1-4 sequence including wins suggests genuine progression at this class level.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Jockey Darragh Keenan has a low 10% strike rate across 1261 rides — well below the field average — and brings no visible course advantage at Redcar.
  • Ciao Capo (SR 81, 7/1) is carrying 1-0 less, has fresher form (411613) with a recent win, and is drifting into market at 15% — a sharper move than Rizal's 10% swing.
  • A +5 marks rise combined with top weight of 10-2 makes Rizal the most penalised horse in the field; in a competitive 12-runner handicap that double burden is a material stacking of disadvantages.
  • Domination (SR 83) is only 2 SR points behind, carries 12lbs less (9-6), is trained by Harriet Bethell at a 21% strike rate, and has not drifted in the market — the weight-for-SR ratio strongly favou…
Shortlist Rizal, Domination, Ciao Capo, Saxophonist
Each-way: Ciao Capo Danger: Domination

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m2f1y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Redcar Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade