Consistently knocking on the door with three fourth-place finishes in his last five starts, Caballo de Guerra has experience over today's trip and going and our rating of 120 ranks him second in the field — the chief risk is a 159-day absence and his tendency to fall just short.
Form last 644456-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
114SR120RPR115OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 114 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last four starts, Tintintin nevertheless sits top of the ratings here and has run over today's trip and going, giving him solid claims; carrying 165 lb is the one burden connections must overcome.
Form last 6/7P9-7
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
103SR127RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Bathgate landed back-to-back wins three and four starts back and has experience of both today's trip and conditions, making him a live contender off a mark of 112; the chief concern is a 186-day absence that leaves his current fitness an open question.
Form last 641169-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
88SR112RPR112OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 88 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out following back-to-back wins, Follow Charlie arrives on a sharp 16-day turnaround with distance and going experience in his favour, though a hefty 163 lb burden and a ranking of sixth of ten suggest he faces a stiff task here.
Form last 64-4113
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
112SR110RPR110OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 112 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Annie Agnew arrives in good heart after winning last time out and a second before that, and she has run over today's trip and going before; carrying 161 lb against a ten-runner field could test her, however, and her record in recent starts has been inconsistent.
Form last 6P-4021
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
104SR108RPR108OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 104 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Nobotheratall won four starts back and followed up with a second three starts back, but a seventh last time out gives pause; he carries 158 lb here, though his experience over today's trip and going offers some grounding.
Form last 69-1247
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
102SR112RPR105OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 102 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Try Them won one start back but has finished fourth on his most recent outing, and ranked eighth of ten on our figures he faces a stiff ask under 158 lb, despite having experience of today's trip and going.
Form last 65-0214
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
103SR107RPR107OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Pure Gold faces a stiff task ranked ninth of ten on our figures, and a burden of 155 lb adds to her challenge; some consolation is that she has run over today's trip and going before, and arrives here on a fresh 16-day break.
Form last 6-44343
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
105SR107RPR102OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in his last five starts and absent for 200 days, El Jefe has an uphill task ranked bottom of this field on our figures, and 153 lb is a stern burden; experience over today's trip and going offers a slim foothold, but he is hard to fancy on this evidence.
Form last 633464-
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
85SR105RPR100OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 85 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Caballo de Guerra owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (63) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
4/1Lucinda Russell & Michael ScudamoreJack Power(5)
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Follow Charlie
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · R. Mike Smith✓ Value Signal
El Jefe
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Andrew Hamilton◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Caballo de Guerra (SR 114, 7/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin and has steamed dramatically in the market — shortening 47% from its opening price, which is by far the strongest market signal in this race. Carrying 12-0 (top weight) is a concern, but with an SR advantage of 2lb over the next-best and a 5-year-old's physical profile suggesting further improvement, the market confidence cannot be ignored. The trainer/jockey combination at 5% and 11% respectively is modest, but the sheer scale of the market move (47% in) suggests informed money rather than casual punting. Distance and going fitness are unproven (?), which limits certainty, but no rival combines SR, age, and market support to match.
Each-way alternative: Follow Charlie.
Main danger: Follow Charlie — Follow Charlie (SR 112, 9/2) has Course:W3P5 at Perth — an outstanding course record — GoingFit:+, and recent form of '4-4113' showing a sharp upswing; the 5lb claimer Murray Dodd offsets the +6 mark rise and this horse knows every bend at the track.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form reads 44456- with a dash suggesting an absence; distance and going fitness explicitly unproven (?), meaning horse has not demonstrated it handles today's conditions at this track.
Trainer Lucinda Russell/Michael Scudamore at 5% strike rate (297 runners) and jockey Jack Power (claiming, 5lb, 11% from 88 rides) are both modest — a 47% market move paired with this handler combo r…
Follow Charlie (SR 112, Course: W3P5) has three course wins and five course places at Perth and is freshened after 16 days, drifting only 10% — a rival with proven course aptitude being quietly overl…
Carrying top weight 12-0 while distance/going suitability is unproven (?): no evidence horse has handled this track or conditions before, unlike several rivals with established Perth course records.
ShortlistCaballo de Guerra, Follow Charlie, Annie Agnew, Tintintin