Kempton (AW) 16:20 RESULTED
Class 4 23 Sep 2026

Wednesday 23 September Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m

Official Result

Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Donegan (GB) Callum Hutchinson · Andrew Balding
    17/2
  2. 11/4
  3. 2/5F
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Kempton (AW)

16:20–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 3 weeks, 3 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Kodiac City silks
Kodiac City
Age 2 · 9-11
16
92
97
92OR
2
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
4/7 8/13 4/7
SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Donegan silks
Donegan
Age 2 · 9-4
—
—
148
—
2
9-4
★★★★☆
—
8/1 4/1 5/1
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

3
Playing Card silks
Playing Card
Age 2 · 9-4
—
—
151
—
2
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
11/4 7/2 5/2
SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Smash Royale silks
Smash Royale
Age 2 · 9-4
0
—
123
—
2
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
40/1 25/1 28/1
SR 123 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 123 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Bizzo Flavin silks
Bizzo Flavin
Age 2 · 9-1
—
—
122
—
2
9-1
★★★☆☆
—
28/1 14/1 25/1
SR 122 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 122 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Status Symbol silks
Status Symbol
Age 2 · 9-1
—
—
122
—
2
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 9/1 25/1
SR 122 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 122 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Tarn Hows silks
Tarn Hows
Age 2 · 9-1
0
—
126
—
2
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
66/1 40/1 33/1
SR 126 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 126 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Vestre Moon silks
Vestre Moon
Age 2 · 9-1
8
—
122
—
2
9-1
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 10/1 11/1
SR 122 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 122 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
True Impact silks
True Impact
Age 2 · 8-12
—
—
126
—
2
8-12
★★★☆☆
—
50/1 22/1 25/1
SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Kodiac City 4/7 open 1.62 4/6 4/7 open 1.62 4/7 open 1.62 4/6 8/13 open 1.67 4/6 Paddy Power
2 Donegan 8/1 open 7.00 15/2 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 5/1 open 5.00 15/2 open 5.00 13/2 open 5.00 8/1 Bet365
3 Playing Card 11/4 open 8.00 5/2 open 6.00 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 5.50 5/2 open 4.50 5/2 open 5.50 11/4 Bet365
4 Smash Royale 40/1 open 34.00 33/1 open 26.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 28/1 40/1 Bet365
5 Bizzo Flavin 28/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 Bet365
6 Status Symbol 33/1 open 10.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 25/1 open 15.00 33/1 Bet365
7 Tarn Hows 66/1 open 51.00 50/1 open 41.00 33/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 51.00 50/1 40/1 66/1 Bet365
8 Vestre Moon 16/1 open 11.00 14/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 14/1 11/1 open 13.00 16/1 Bet365
9 True Impact 50/1 open 23.00 40/1 open 26.00 25/1 open 29.00 25/1 open 29.00 40/1 open 29.00 33/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Playing Card

Live signal

Playing Card owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (84) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Harry Eustace Pat Cosgrave
81% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Donegan

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

8/1 · Andrew Balding
✓ Value Signal

True Impact

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

50/1 · Jonathan Portman
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
84 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +31.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.6 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Playing Card
71.0 11/4
2 2. Donegan
63.6 8/1
3 1. Kodiac City
62.5 4/7
4 8. Vestre Moon
58.8 16/1
5 9. True Impact
53.8 50/1
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Playing Card
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 2 · 9-11
4/7
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾 —

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 2 · 9-4
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 151 🐾 —

SR 151 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 2 · 9-4
8/1
★★★★☆ SR 148 🐾 —

Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

8
Age 2 · 9-1
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 122 🐾 —

SR 122 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Playing Card
Confidence: Speculative

Playing Card (SR:151, 7/2) posts the highest Saturday Rating in the field and has steamed in 24% in the market — the single most compelling market signal available in this race. Harry Eustace (13%, 552 runners) is a competent trainer for a debut, and Pat Cosgrave is an experienced booking that suggests connections are serious about winning today. The SR of 151 sits comfortably in the competitive handicap range and represents a meaningful 3-point edge over Donegan (SR:148), the only rival in the same ability bracket, who has received no notable market support and whose jockey Callum Hutchinson (12%) is the weakest booking among the leading contenders. Kodiac City (SR:97, 4/6 favourite) dropping three tiers represents a dramatic class drop but the SR is 54 points below Playing Card — the form-based ability gap is simply too large to ignore even accounting for AW experience. Each-way alternative: Donegan. Main danger: Donegan — Donegan (SR:148, 9/2) is the only other horse in the field rated within the competitive ability bracket, is trained by Andrew Balding (18%, 2,992 runners) — a top yard that debuts winners regularly — and at 9/2 represents genuine each-way value if Playing Card's market move proves premature.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Playing Card is a debut runner (Form:------) at Kempton AW — no evidence it handles Polytrack, and debutants in this type of 2yo field at Kempton AW win at a significantly lower rate than horses with…
  • Kodiac City is the 4/6 market favourite trained by Richard Hughes (15%) with Billy Loughnane (18%) aboard — both outrank Eustace/Cosgrave on trainer and jockey win-rate metrics, and the market has pr…
  • Pat Cosgrave's 11% win-rate is the lowest among the leading three jockeys in this race and is below average for a Kempton AW feature booking, weakening the 'serious jockey' narrative relative to Loug…
  • Donegan (SR:148, Andrew Balding 18%) is also a debut runner from a significantly higher-strike-rate yard and sits only 3 SR points below Playing Card — the margin is razor-thin if Balding's superior…
Shortlist Playing Card, Donegan, Kodiac City
Each-way: Donegan Danger: Donegan

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m Distance to cover
Good to Soft Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Kempton (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade