Curragh 15:55 RESULTED
16 Aug 2026

Sunday 16 August Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap

Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap · 1m2f0y

Official Result

Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Liberation Date (GB) Orla Tynan · Jack Foley
    7/1
  2. Second Thyer (GB)
    3/1F
  3. 11/1
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Southwell (AW)

13:30–17:40 · 9 races

Curragh

13:35–17:25 · 8 races

Tramore

13:45–17:05 · 7 races

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15:45–18:45 · 7 races

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Settled
  • 12 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Sonoran silks
Sonoran
Age 4 · 10-0
-03699
80
69
93
4
10-0
14/1 10/1 12/1
Ranked top of the field on our rating, Sonoran arrives fresh on 36 days' rest and has run over today's trip and going, offering genuine each-way claims from stall one — though winless in his last five starts, and his last two efforts both finishing ninth, the upturn needs to come sharply.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Thyer silks
Thyer
Age 5 · 9-10
00-653
76
78
88
5
9-10
10/3 9/2 10/3
Thyer has run over today's trip and going, and shaped with encouragement when third last time out after a testing spell; back within a fortnight and carrying 136 lb from stall six, his profile looks stronger than his official mark of 76 suggests, making him an appealing each-way proposition despite being winless in his last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Youcansaythatagain silks
Youcansaythatagain
Age 3 · 9-10
71
Ben Coen 11%
A Oliver 11%
83
72
71
3
9-10
6/1 5/1 6/1
Inconsistency is the concern here — a winner last time out but a seventh the start before that, and a rating of 71 ranked tenth of twelve suggests he has plenty to find on these terms despite the recent form boost.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Great Mover silks
Great Mover
Age 4 · 9-9
663260
75
74
88
4
9-9
8/1 FCST 15/2
Placed twice in her last six starts, including a second three runs back and a third four runs back, Great Mover has experience of today's trip and going and our rating of 88 makes her a leading threat — though the unplaced run last time is the obvious concern.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Unterberg silks
Unterberg
Age 7 · 9-7
110880
73
55
86
7
9-7
20/1 16/1 20/1
Unterberg has run over today's trip and going, and his two wins in his last six starts show he can find the winner's enclosure, though three subsequent starts have yielded little, including two eighths and an unplaced run last time out 15 days ago; the 133 lb burden is another obstacle to overcome from stall four.
AI verdict

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

6
Admiral Will Brown silks
Admiral Will Brown
Age 3 · 9-5
77-719
78
71
76
3
9-5
15/2 11/1 13/2
Won two starts back but has disappointed either side of that victory, finishing seventh on three of his last five starts, so consistency is the real question mark; has run over today's trip and going, carries 131 lb from stall two, and 20 days since his last run leaves him reasonably fresh.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Liberation Date silks
Liberation Date
Age 3 · 9-5
-96836
78
72
85
3
9-5
9/1 9/1 17/2
Winless in her last five starts, Liberation Date does bring distance and going experience to the table, and her third two runs back hints at better, but the 131 lb burden from stall 12 makes progression a tougher ask here.
AI verdict

SR 72 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Mighty Danu silks
Mighty Danu
Age 3 · 9-4
17-68
77
56
87
3
9-4
28/1 14/1 28/1
Mighty Danu showed she can win at this level with a victory four starts back, and her going experience is a solid foundation, but she has to prove she can recapture that form after three below-par efforts since, with 130 lb to shoulder from stall nine.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Storzando silks
Storzando
Age 3 · 9-4
637
77
51
62
3
9-4
28/1 11/1 25/1
Winless in his last three starts and ranked last on our figures, Storzando faces a stiff task here, though a third two starts back and experience over today's trip and going offer slim crumbs of comfort; the weight of 130 lb does him no favours either.
AI verdict

SR 51 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.

10
Blackjack Hills silks
Blackjack Hills
Age 4 · 8-13
11-728
65
72
73
4
8-13
7/1 7/1 13/2
Showed a turn of foot with back-to-back wins in recent starts, but has since posted an eighth and a seventh, suggesting inconsistency; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 17 days between runs keeps him fresh enough to creep back into the argument from stall three.
AI verdict

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

11
Guinelot silks
Guinelot
Age 3 · 8-12
541
71
73
72
3
8-12
15/2 5/1 15/2
Guinelot won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, which counts for something, but ranked ninth of twelve on our figures she faces a stiff task at 124 lb from stall ten.
AI verdict

SR 73 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Nibras Rainbow silks
Nibras Rainbow
Age 6 · 8-7
132139
56
64
68
6
8-7
10/1 11/1 9/1
Beaten a long way back in ninth last time out and ranked 11th of 12 on our figures, Nibras Rainbow is hard to fancy despite a third and two wins in earlier recent starts; a struggling trainer — winless in 21 attempts over the last 14 days — only adds to the concern, though he has distance and going experience to call on.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Sonoran 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 12.00 14/1 open 11.00 12/1 open 12.00 14/1 Bet365
2 Thyer 10/3 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 6.00 4/1 open 7.00 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 Coral
3 Youcansaythatagain 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 open 6.50 6/1 Bet365
4 Great Mover 8/1 open 8.50 8/1 8/1 8/1 open 8.50 15/2 open 9.50 8/1 Bet365
5 Unterberg 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 Bet365
6 Admiral Will Brown 15/2 open 12.00 8/1 open 12.00 8/1 open 12.00 13/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 12.00 8/1 Coral
7 Liberation Date 9/1 open 11.00 9/1 9/1 17/2 open 11.00 17/2 open 10.00 9/1 Bet365
8 Mighty Danu 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 Bet365
9 Storzando 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 12.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 Bet365
10 Blackjack Hills 7/1 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.00 13/2 open 8.50 7/1 Bet365
11 Guinelot 15/2 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.50 8/1 open 6.50 15/2 open 7.00 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 Coral
12 Nibras Rainbow 10/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Youcansaythatagain

Speculative

Youcansaythatagain owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (40) and market confidence (72). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

6/1 A Oliver Ben Coen
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Blackjack Hills

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

7/1 · Matthew J Smith
✓ Value Signal

Mighty Danu

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

28/1 · Gavin Cromwell
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +15.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
72 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +15.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
34 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.5 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
62 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Youcansaythatagain
52.1 6/1
2 10. Blackjack Hills
51.3 7/1
3 2. Thyer
50.7 10/3
4 7. Liberation Date
47.5 9/1
5 4. Great Mover
46.9 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Thyer
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

2
Age 5 · 9-10
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 3 · 9-10
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 4 · 8-13
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-5
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Age 3 · 8-12
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 73 🐾

SR 73 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 4 · 9-9
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾

SR 74 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-5
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 72 🐾

SR 72 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 6 · 8-7
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 7 · 9-7
20/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Thyer
Confidence: Speculative

Thyer (SR:78, 3/1, 9-10) is the highest-rated horse in this field by a clear margin and carries a manageable weight. The standout signal is the 23% market inward move — the sharpest steam in the race — from a 3/1 starting point, indicating strong informed money despite a trainer (Ahern, 8%) and jockey (Roche, 6%) who are not headline operators. The form string 00-653 is uninspiring on paper but the visor application is new and the significant market support suggests connections expect it to unlock improvement. GoingFit:- is the key risk on good ground, but the market has clearly taken that into account and still backed it aggressively. Each-way alternative: Nibras Rainbow. Main danger: Nibras Rainbow — Nibras Rainbow (SR:64, 12/1, 8-7) has the sole DistFit:+ in the field, ran only 4 days ago showing peak readiness, has shortened 9% in the market, and the lightest weight in the field at 8-7 gives a significant physical edge in a 12-runner handicap.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form string 00-653 shows Thyer has finished no better than 3rd in recent starts, with two last-place finishes — the new visor is unproven and first-time headgear can just as easily unsettle a horse a…
  • GoingFit marked as '-' (unknown/unproven on good ground at Curragh) is a concrete red flag: if the horse needs cut in the ground, today's conditions could simply not suit regardless of market confide…
  • Trainer Ahern at 8% and jockey Roche at 6% are notably low-strike-rate operators in this context — the combination gives the market steam less credibility, as neither has a record of placing horses t…
  • Guinelot (SR:73, 13/2) ran 1-4-5 recently and Blackjack Hills (SR:72, 15/2) has two wins in form — both are drifting out in the market but represent live dangers whose recent form is meaningfully mor…
Shortlist Thyer, Nibras Rainbow, Guinelot, Youcansaythatagain
Each-way: Nibras Rainbow Danger: Nibras Rainbow

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m2f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
12 Confirmed runners
Curragh Track and setting