LNAA Critical Care Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race) · 1m13y
Favourable weight of 9-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 123 suggests ability but 100/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 123 suggests ability but 125/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 136 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 127 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 125 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 147 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 126 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Regal Desire | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 Palladas | 2/7 open 1.44 | — | 1/4 open 1.33 | 1/4 open 1.33 | 1/4 open 1.36 | 2/7 open 1.30 | 2/7 Bet365 |
| 2 Cullinan Wolf | 100/1 | — | 66/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 | 66/1 | 100/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Wats On Tiger | 125/1 open 151.00 | — | 80/1 | 80/1 | 100/1 | 80/1 | 125/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Assiri Heights | 11/2 open 5.50 | — | 7/2 open 5.00 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 9/2 | 7/2 open 5.00 | 11/2 Bet365 |
| 5 Blue Boy Junior | 20/1 open 8.50 | — | 16/1 open 7.50 | 16/1 open 7.50 | 20/1 open 8.50 | 18/1 open 8.50 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Jetpack Jimmy | 125/1 open 101.00 | — | 80/1 | 80/1 | 100/1 | 80/1 | 125/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Mercantile | 28/1 open 21.00 | — | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 22/1 open 19.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 28/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Salvezza | 11/1 open 10.00 | — | 8/1 open 11.00 | 8/1 open 11.00 | 10/1 open 13.00 | 8/1 open 10.00 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Star of The Desert | 14/1 open 13.00 | — | 9/1 open 12.00 | 9/1 open 12.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 10/1 open 15.00 | 14/1 Bet365 |
| 10 Wyvill | 150/1 open 101.00 | — | 80/1 | 80/1 | 100/1 open 81.00 | — | 150/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Palladas owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (88) and market confidence (99). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 9-11 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 9-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 147 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 139 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 136 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Palladas (SR 158, 1/3) is a dominant selection by every available metric. The SR of 158 is a full 7 points clear of the next-best Assiri Heights (SR 151) and dwarfs the remainder of the field, most of whom sit in the 123-139 range. Charlie Appleby's 31% strike rate with 206 runners is elite-level, and Billy Loughnane at 19% from 1,740 rides provides high-quality steering. A debut winner who has clearly impressed connections enough to be sent to Southwell at heavy odds-on, the weight of 9-11 carries no penalty concerns in a novice context where rivals include 100/1 and 125/1 shots. The market's extreme confidence (1/3) reflects a Godolphin operation that simply does not send SR 158 horses to Class 4 Southwell novices unless they expect to win comfortably. Each-way alternative: Assiri Heights. Main danger: Salvezza — Salvezza (SR 147, 9/1) has steamed in 17% in the market — the strongest market move in the field outside the favourite — and Ed Walker's 15% strike rate with Kieran Shoemark aboard gives this horse the second-best connections profile on the card; stepping up in class (ClassMv:↑1) is a concern, but the market support suggests something has been seen at home.