Winless in her last five starts, Tardaff has at least run over today's trip and comes here fresh enough on 17 days' rest, but a fifth last time out and little improvement in recent outings make her a modest each-way proposition at best from stall four carrying 135 lb.
Form last 654-005
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR56RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ribston Pippin landed a win and posted a second in his last five starts, but has disappointed in his two most recent outings; he has run over today's trip and going before, and at 134 lb from stall seven, a return to form after 29 days off would be needed to make an impact.
Form last 61-6297
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR55RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Barleybrown brings useful experience over today's distance and going, and our rating ranks him top of the 14 — second two starts back highlights his capability, though he has been winless in his last six and that latest eighth is the concern.
Form last 6376628
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
61SR59RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 61 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mercurius Power returns on a sharp 22-day turnaround having posted a runner-up finish last time out, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions; ranked second of 14 on our ratings, the chief risk is his failure to convert, winless in his last six starts.
Form last 6667852
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR56RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Three losses sandwiching a win in her last five starts make Love You More inconsistent at best, and ranked eleventh of fourteen on our figures she faces a stiff task at the weights carrying 133 lb from stall eight, though she has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6-27071
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR54RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last five starts and unplaced in the two most recent, Implied Volatility faces a stiff ask, though he has run over today's distance and going before and a 41-day break may have freshened him up from stall three carrying 132 lb.
Form last 677-700
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR55RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in his last six starts, The Spotlight Kid does bring distance and going experience to the table, and a third two starts back shows he can get competitive; at 131 lb from stall 11, however, he faces a stiff ask to break that duck here.
Form last 6443536
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
46SR55RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Create shaped up well on her latest start to score, and having already run over today's trip and going, conditions pose no fresh questions. She carries 131 lb from stall 14, but her recent winning fitness makes her our pick here.
Form last 6000471
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR55RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Heretic has been consistently placed in recent starts, finishing second and third in his last two outings, and has experience of today's distance and going; the main concern is that he has been off the track for 66 days and is yet to score.
Form last 6438732
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR56RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts, Splinterwood has experience of today's trip and conditions, but his finishing positions have been modest throughout and a trainer in lean form — just one success from 21 runners in the past fortnight — does little to inspire confidence despite the low draw at stall two.
Form last 67-679
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR54RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked 13 of 14 on our figures, Have You A Minute faces a stiff task from stall 12 off 61 days, though he has run over today's distance and going before and does at least bring a win in recent form.
Form last 61560-9
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR51RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last four starts and absent for 257 days, Muddy Marvellous faces a stiff task as the bottom-ranked runner on our figures, though he has run over today's trip and going before and a featherweight draw from stall one offers at least a neutral starting point.
Form last 648/05-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
31SR48RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 31 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
Timebar has been consistently placed, finishing second three times in his last five starts, though he remains yet to win in recent form; he has run over today's trip and going before, and a 22-day break looks fair enough, though 129 lb from stall nine may test his resolution.
Form last 642-822
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
52SR55RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts and ranked 12 of 14 on our figures, Evelyn's Phoenix faces a stiff task here; sixth last time out and largely out of the frame in recent outings, he does have experience over today's trip and returns on a handy 15-day turnaround.
Form last 6296906
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR52RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 25/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Barleybrown owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (34) and market confidence (70). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/2Ruth CarrP J McDonald
63%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Love You More
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
6/1 · Joseph Parr✓ Value Signal
Muddy Marvellous
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
66/1 · Seb Spencer◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Have You A Minute (SR:57, 8/1) arrives dropping a class (ClassMv:↓1) off a mark that has dropped 1lb since last win (MarkMv:-1), and crucially the market has steamed in 36% — the strongest market move in the entire field by a considerable margin. At 8/1 with that level of money arriving, connections clearly have confidence. The trainer Tom Tate has a 16% strike rate from a small but meaningful 25-runner sample, and jockey Hector Crouch (18% career SR, 808 rides) is a high-quality booking that underlines yard intent. The form line 1560-9 shows a winning profile, and dropping a class makes the recent 9 (last run) easier to excuse after a layoff of 61 days — the money coming in strongly suggests the horse is fit and ready.
Each-way alternative: Barleybrown.
Main danger: Heretic — Heretic (SR:59, 13/2) carries the highest SR among the leading contenders, has also steamed in 18% matching Barleybrown for market confidence, and a last-run second (form:438732) shows a sharp return to form — the 66-day break is the only real doubt.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Form figure '9' last time out (61 days ago) was a beaten last or near-last — a significant confidence issue even with the class drop, as the horse may have regressed rather than simply needed a break.
Barleybrown (SR:61) has a higher speed rating than Have You A Minute (SR:57) and is also being backed in (18%), suggesting it is a stronger market rival at shorter odds of 5/1.
Tom Tate's 16% strike rate comes from a tiny 25-runner sample — too small to treat as statistically reliable evidence of trainer ability to have horses fit to win off a layoff.
A 61-day absence followed by a poor last run with no headgear flag in the data gives no evidence of a physical or equipment reason for the improvement connections appear to be expecting today.
ShortlistHave You A Minute, Barleybrown, Heretic, Create