Southwell (AW) 17:40 RESULTED
16 Aug 2026

Sunday 16 August IFAHR Cup Handicap Stakes (0-95) - Arab Race

IFAHR Cup Handicap Stakes (0-95) - Arab Race · 1m3f23y

Official Result

IFAHR Cup Handicap Stakes (0-95) - Arab Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Mdawi (A) Ray Dawson · P Collington
    100/30
  2. Second Jeewan (A)
    5/1
  3. Third Ashj'Aa (A)
    4/6F
AI ExplorerBETA Deep analytics
Race picker

Switch race

Southwell (AW)

13:30–17:40 · 9 races

Curragh

13:35–17:25 · 8 races

Tramore

13:45–17:05 · 7 races

Pontefract

15:45–18:45 · 7 races

Recently viewed

Settled
  • 4 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Ashj'Aa (A) silks
Ashj'Aa (A)
Age 4 · 10-0
1
149
4
10-0
5/6 6/5 8/11
SR 149 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 149 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Mdawi (A) silks
Mdawi (A)
Age 5 · 9-2
272-11
159
5
9-2
4/1 10/3 4/1
SR 159 backed by market confidence at 7/2 — a genuine contender.
AI verdict

SR 159 backed by market confidence at 7/2 — a genuine contender.

3
Jeewan (A) silks
Jeewan (A)
Age 10 · 8-12
61-553
155
10
8-12
4/1 3/1 4/1
Favourable weight of 8-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 8-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.

4
Mayfair (A) silks
Mayfair (A)
Age 7 · 8-4
4/45-4
150
7
8-4
11/2 7/2 11/2
Favourable weight of 8-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.
AI verdict

Favourable weight of 8-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Ashj'Aa (A) 5/6 open 2.25 8/11 open 2.20 5/6 Bet365
2 Mdawi (A) 4/1 open 4.33 4/1 4/1 Bet365
3 Jeewan (A) 4/1 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.00 9/2 William Hill
4 Mayfair (A) 11/2 open 4.50 6/1 open 5.00 6/1 William Hill

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Jeewan (A)

High conviction

Jeewan (A) owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (86) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Barry Brennan Ebrahim Nader
67% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Ashj'Aa (A)

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/6 · P Collington
✓ Value Signal

Mayfair (A)

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

11/2 · J M Morris
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +32.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
59 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 4 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Jeewan (A)
71.8 4/1
2 1. Ashj'Aa (A)
70.5 5/6
3 2. Mdawi (A)
69.8 4/1
4 4. Mayfair (A)
66.9 11/2
YOUR DECISION

See your angle before you make your move

Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

🐾 Your pick
No horse picked yet
Voting open now

Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.

Choose your horse →
🤖 AI view
Mdawi (A)
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 10-0
5/6
★★★☆☆ SR 149 🐾

SR 149 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 5 · 9-2
4/1
★★★★☆ SR 159 🐾

SR 159 backed by market confidence at 7/2 — a genuine contender.

3
Age 10 · 8-12
4/1
★★★★☆ SR 155 🐾

Favourable weight of 8-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.

4
Age 7 · 8-4
11/2
★★★★☆ SR 150 🐾

Favourable weight of 8-4 gives a real edge in this handicap.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Mdawi (A)
Confidence: Speculative

Mdawi (SR:159) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a favourable weight of 9-2 — a full 12lb less than stablemate Ashj'Aa (10-0) despite superior ability. His form string 272-11 shows two consecutive wins in most recent outings, confirming peak condition, and the market has responded with a 5% inward move to 7/2. Jockey Ray Dawson (16% strike rate from 426 rides) is meaningfully stronger in the saddle than any other booking here. The Collington yard running two horses raises the stablemate question, but Mdawi's SR edge, weight advantage, and better recent form make him the clear yard number one. Each-way alternative: Ashj'Aa (A). Main danger: Ashj'Aa (A) — Ashj'Aa (SR:149) is a 4-year-old whose sole form figure is a win, carries market support (6% inward move to 11/10), and the youth and upside of a once-raced improver in the same yard could make him more progressive than his SR currently reflects.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Ashj'Aa is the market favourite at 11/10 — a full 240% shorter in price — suggesting the stable and market firmly believe the stablemate is the yard's intended winner today, despite Mdawi's rating ed…
  • Dougie Costello's 7% strike rate is misleading here: Ashj'Aa is on a 'Form:1' — a single recorded run that was a win — indicating a lightly-raced horse potentially being laid out for this spot, while…
  • Jeewan (SR:155) at 10/3 is only 4lbs inferior on ratings but carries 6lbs less than Mdawi and is priced almost identically — representing a credible each-way threat that the market has not dismissed.
  • Mdawi is 5 years old carrying 9-2 on Southwell AW where weight-carrying ability on Fibresand can be a decisive leveller, and his two wins may have come against weaker company given the stablemate at…
Shortlist Mdawi (A), Ashj'Aa (A), Jeewan (A)
Each-way: Ashj'Aa (A) Danger: Ashj'Aa (A)

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m3f23y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
4 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting