Irish EBF Pat Smullen Stakes (Listed) · 1m
Strong 156 Saturday Rating and dominant 8/15 market position justify 4/5 stars, despite carrying top weight of 9-6.
Moderate 5/1 odds, a Saturday Rating of 146, and recent form showing a win followed by a second suggest solid but not elite contention.
A Saturday Rating of 132 and single-figure form combined with 16/1 odds and non-favourite status signal limited market confidence.
Ranting Duke's 143 Saturday Rating has potential but 10/1 odds, 9-4 weight, and patchy 52D form limit confidence to a mid-tier three stars.
Long odds of 20/1 and a Saturday Rating of 129 signal limited market confidence against stronger, better-fancied rivals.
Outsider odds of 14/1 and a single recent form figure of 5 limit confidence despite a competitive 136 Saturday Rating.
Long odds of 33/1 and unknown recent form make Cedrela a 127-rated outsider with little market confidence.
Rated 89 with inconsistent 134 form and 9/1 odds suggest Dancing Destiny is a mid-tier contender carrying 8-7.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Florida Bay | 8/13 open 1.53 | — | 4/7 | 4/7 | 8/11 | 8/13 | 8/11 William Hill |
| 2 One Number | 9/2 open 6.00 | — | 7/2 | 7/2 | 4/1 open 4.00 | 4/1 | 9/2 Bet365 |
| 3 Wo Wo Never | 14/1 open 17.00 | — | 14/1 open 17.00 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 26.00 | 14/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 William Hill |
| 4 Ranting Duke | 10/1 | — | 17/2 | 17/2 | 10/1 open 8.50 | 9/1 open 9.50 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Sarah's Choice | 20/1 | — | 18/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 open 26.00 | 18/1 open 21.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Tosca No Candis | 16/1 open 15.00 | — | 14/1 | 14/1 | 18/1 open 13.00 | 14/1 | 18/1 William Hill |
| 7 Cedrela | 40/1 open 34.00 | — | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 | 50/1 Coral |
| 8 Dancing Destiny | 8/1 open 10.00 | — | 13/2 | 13/2 | 8/1 open 19.00 | 13/2 | 8/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Florida Bay owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (87) and market confidence (97). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalStrong 156 Saturday Rating and dominant 8/15 market position justify 4/5 stars, despite carrying top weight of 9-6.
Moderate 5/1 odds, a Saturday Rating of 146, and recent form showing a win followed by a second suggest solid but not elite contention.
Rated 89 with inconsistent 134 form and 9/1 odds suggest Dancing Destiny is a mid-tier contender carrying 8-7.
Ranting Duke's 143 Saturday Rating has potential but 10/1 odds, 9-4 weight, and patchy 52D form limit confidence to a mid-tier three stars.
A Saturday Rating of 132 and single-figure form combined with 16/1 odds and non-favourite status signal limited market confidence.
Outsider odds of 14/1 and a single recent form figure of 5 limit confidence despite a competitive 136 Saturday Rating.
Long odds of 20/1 and a Saturday Rating of 129 signal limited market confidence against stronger, better-fancied rivals.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Florida Bay (SR 156, 8/15) is the standout in this field by a clear margin — a 10-point SR gap over the next-best One Number (SR 146) is substantial at Listed level. The form reading of '31' shows a debut third followed by a win, the classic progressive 2yo trajectory, and A P O'Brien's record in juvenile Listed races at Naas is exemplary. At 9-6 the weight is level with One Number, removing any lbs disadvantage, and the 4-star AI probability combined with a dominant market position (odds-on, no sign of drift) confirms cross-signal alignment: SR, weight, market, and trainer all point the same direction. Good ground over 1m suits a Ballydoyle juvenile stepping up from a maiden win. Each-way alternative: One Number. Main danger: One Number — One Number (SR 146, 5/1) has the second-best SR in the field, runs off the same 9-6 weight, and Joseph O'Brien's yard is dangerous at this level — the '20' form hides a debut win, and improvement from a juvenile second run is entirely plausible.