Newmarket (July) 17:00 RESULTED
Class 3 4 Jul 2026

Saturday 4 July Betway Launches Super Sub Handicap

Betway Launches Super Sub Handicap · 7f

Official Result

Betway Launches Super Sub Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Ironwill (IRE) Marco Ghiani · Stuart Williams
    2/1F
  2. 11/4
  3. 9/2
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Big race Sat 18 Jul Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (GBB Race) Newbury · 15:37

Naas

13:22–17:30 · 8 races

Newmarket (July)

13:30–17:00 · 7 races

Sandown

13:50–17:22 · 7 races

Leicester

14:11–17:35 · 7 races

Beverley

14:17–17:40 · 7 races

Bellewstown

17:15–20:18 · 7 races

Nottingham

18:00–21:00 · 7 races

Carlisle

18:09–20:39 · 6 races

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Settled
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 5 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
I'll Be Back silks
I'll Be Back
Age 3 · 9-11
1-1
92
97
92OR
3
9-11
11/10 10/11 Evs
I'll Be Back is unbeaten in two starts, following up a short break with a comfortable length victory in a strong novice event at Leicester, form since franked emphatically by that race's form. With signs he'll stay beyond this trip, he looks sure to progress again on testing or better ground, though the lengthy absence since that win adds a note of caution at 92 on our figures.
AI verdict

Carrying top weight of 9-11 with a Saturday Rating of 97 and short 10/11 odds, perfect 1-1 form doesn't fully justify favouritism concerns.

2
Winding Stream silks
Winding Stream
Age 3 · 9-6
1-269
87
88
87OR
3
9-6
5/1 6/1 9/2
Winding Stream was ridden prominently and found little, beaten four and a quarter lengths in a high-class handicap at Ascot last time, but this looks a notably easier opportunity than his recent novice company and he could yet improve on his mark. The stable has been successful in two of the last three runnings of this race, and with this trip well within range on a sound surface, he rates a leading threat at 94 on our figures.
AI verdict

Solid Saturday Rating of 88 and a recent win in form offset by 9-6 weight and mid-market 15/2 odds.

3
Proud Nation silks
Proud Nation
Age 3 · 9-5
21-35
86
95
86OR
3
9-5
10/3 4/1 3/1
Proud Nation performed to expectations on his handicap debut, beaten three lengths off a higher mark at Chester last time, continuing a genuinely consistent record that includes a win in this sequence. A nice sort who handles some cut in the ground as well as good going, he is suited by this trip, though his figures leave him towards the bottom of this field at 83.
AI verdict

Solid 95 Saturday Rating and recent form showing two top-three finishes justify mid-market 9/2 odds despite carrying 9-5.

4
Ironwill silks
Ironwill
Age 3 · 9-4
11-553
85
89
85OR
3
9-4
6/1 5/1 6/1
Ironwill arrives on the back of two wins in his last five starts and ran to form again when beaten two and a half lengths off this same mark at Sandown last time, only his second try at this trip. Not quite at his sharpest over 7f in those two runs but a picture of consistency throughout, he tops our figures at 94 and, despite the yard's recent lull, rates the one to beat.
AI verdict

Solid Saturday Rating of 89 and winning form is offset by 9-4 weight burden and a fading 553 sequence.

5
Alaminos silks
Alaminos
Age 3 · 9-2
14-270
83
77
83OR
3
9-2
18/1 14/1 18/1
Alaminos looked well below his true level in a handicap at York last time, a run that jars with an otherwise solid recent record including a win in this sequence. Sharper form prior suggests he can bounce back if this longer trip suits, and he is best served by a sound surface, but he sits bottom of these figures at 78 with the stable out of sorts.
AI verdict

Alaminos rates poorly at 14/1 with a Saturday Rating of 77, carrying 9-2 with uninspiring form figures of 14-270.

6
Lightning Polka silks
Lightning Polka
Age 3 · 9-0
1703-9
81
74
81OR
3
9-0
22/1 14/1 20/1
Lightning Polka became unsettled following an awkward start and trailed the field in a handicap right here last time, a display that undersells her better recent form including a win in this sequence. Fairly treated on her form as a juvenile, she has a stamina query at this longer trip but is suited by give in the ground, and now wears a first-time hood.
AI verdict

Rated just 74 with weak 1703-9 form and unfancied at 14/1, Lightning Polka carries 9-0 with little market confidence.

7
Aqua Bear silks
Aqua Bear
Age 3 · 8-13
21-403
80
80
80OR
3
8-13
16/1 11/1 16/1
Aqua Bear performed up to expectations over this sort of trip when beaten three lengths off this same mark at Carlisle last time, part of a largely dependable record that includes a win in this sequence. Versatile with the ground across this trip range, he is fancied to give another honest account and rates a leading threat at 90 on our figures.
AI verdict

Aqua Bear's inconsistent form of 21-403, 11/1 odds, and Saturday Rating of 80 suggest limited winning prospects at 8-13.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 I'll Be Back 11/10 open 1.91 evn evn 6/5 open 2.00 evn 6/5 William Hill
2 Winding Stream 5/1 open 8.50 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 5/1 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 5/1 Bet365
3 Proud Nation 10/3 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.00 10/3 open 5.50 3/1 open 5.50 10/3 Bet365
4 Ironwill 6/1 6/1 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.00 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 William Hill
5 Alaminos 18/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 Coral
6 Lightning Polka 22/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 17.00 22/1 Bet365
7 Aqua Bear 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 12.00 16/1 open 12.00 18/1 William Hill

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Winding Stream

Speculative

Winding Stream owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (49) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

5/1 Richard Hughes Hector Crouch
65% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Proud Nation

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

10/3 · Richard & Peter Fahey
✓ Value Signal

Lightning Polka

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

22/1 · Ed Walker
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +18.6 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
77 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
48 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
65 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.5 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
52 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Winding Stream
58.3 5/1
2 3. Proud Nation
57.6 10/3
3 1. I'll Be Back
57.5 11/10
4 4. Ironwill
51.6 6/1
5 5. Alaminos
44.9 18/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
I'll Be Back
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 3 · 9-11
11/10
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾

Carrying top weight of 9-11 with a Saturday Rating of 97 and short 10/11 odds, perfect 1-1 form doesn't fully justify favouritism concerns.

3
Age 3 · 9-5
10/3
★★★☆☆ SR 95 🐾

Solid 95 Saturday Rating and recent form showing two top-three finishes justify mid-market 9/2 odds despite carrying 9-5.

2
Age 3 · 9-6
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾

Solid Saturday Rating of 88 and a recent win in form offset by 9-6 weight and mid-market 15/2 odds.

4
Age 3 · 9-4
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 89 🐾

Solid Saturday Rating of 89 and winning form is offset by 9-4 weight burden and a fading 553 sequence.

7
Age 3 · 8-13
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

Aqua Bear's inconsistent form of 21-403, 11/1 odds, and Saturday Rating of 80 suggest limited winning prospects at 8-13.

5
Age 3 · 9-2
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾

Alaminos rates poorly at 14/1 with a Saturday Rating of 77, carrying 9-2 with uninspiring form figures of 14-270.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
I'll Be Back
Confidence: Medium

I'll Be Back (SR 97, 10/11) leads the field on SR by 2 points over Proud Nation and carries a manageable 9-11 — only 6lb over the lowest weight in the field. The form string 1-1 (two wins in two starts across seasons) is the cleanest record in the race and the market's strong support at 10/11 reflects genuine confidence rather than blind favouritism. K R Burke is a trainer who targets these conditions-based 3yo contests with well-prepared horses, and a 7f trip on Good to Firm at Newmarket suits a horse with a clean, progressive profile. The SR advantage combined with unbeaten form and market confidence constitutes multiple aligning signals. Each-way alternative: Proud Nation. Main danger: Proud Nation — Proud Nation (SR 95, 9/2) is only 2 points below the selection on SR, carries a 6lb weight advantage at 9-5, and the Fahey yard has a strong record placing 3yos in this type of handicap — the 21-35 form shows consistency at a decent level and a bounce-back run cannot be ruled out.

Shortlist I'll Be Back, Proud Nation, Ironwill
Each-way: Proud Nation Danger: Proud Nation

🗺 The Course Class 3

7f Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Newmarket (July) Track and setting
Class 3 Race grade