Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m90y
Favourable weight of 11-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 134 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 123 suggests ability but 33/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 11-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 119 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 122 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 129 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 126 suggests ability but 80/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Coolishael | 13/8 open 3.00 | 6/4 open 3.00 | 6/4 open 2.75 | 6/4 open 3.00 | 6/4 open 3.00 | 6/4 open 3.00 | 13/8 Bet365 |
| 2 Ellis Redding | 22/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 22/1 Bet365 |
| 3 Fun Daddy | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 4 If You Believe | 2/1 open 7.00 | 5/2 open 7.00 | 9/4 open 7.00 | 9/4 open 7.00 | 9/4 open 7.00 | 9/4 open 7.00 | 5/2 Paddy Power |
| 5 Ruled By The Sun | 80/1 open 67.00 | 66/1 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 open 51.00 | 66/1 | 66/1 | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 6 The Bosses Order | 66/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 34.00 | 66/1 Bet365 |
| 7 For My Lady | 40/1 open 51.00 | 33/1 open 51.00 | 33/1 open 51.00 | 33/1 open 51.00 | 33/1 open 51.00 | 33/1 open 51.00 | 40/1 Bet365 |
| 8 Give It A Crack | 5/1 open 3.75 | 9/2 open 3.50 | 9/2 open 3.75 | 9/2 open 3.50 | 9/2 open 3.50 | 9/2 open 3.50 | 5/1 Bet365 |
| 9 Jury Time | 13/2 open 7.00 | 11/2 open 7.00 | 6/1 | 6/1 | 6/1 | 6/1 | 13/2 Bet365 |
| 10 Missouri Snow | 11/1 open 4.50 | 10/1 open 4.33 | 10/1 open 4.50 | 10/1 open 4.33 | 10/1 open 4.33 | 10/1 open 4.33 | 11/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Naught But Nice | 100/1 open 126.00 | 80/1 open 151.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 51.00 | 80/1 open 126.00 | 80/1 open 126.00 | 100/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
If You Believe owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (82) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 11-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-12 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
Favourable weight of 11-5 gives a real edge in this handicap.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Coolishael (SR:123, 7/4) is the market leader and the money is backing it up — a 9% market move inward confirms stable confidence. The form string 3-3232 shows consistent, reliable placing in maiden hurdles, and DistFit:+ confirms this 2m trip is proven territory. The tongue-tie is retained from previous runs, suggesting connections have found the right setup. While the SR of 123 is workmanlike, this is a wide-open maiden where the two highest-rated runners (Missouri Snow SR:157 and Give It A Crack SR:152) both carry significant market concerns: Missouri Snow has drifted 14% and Give It A Crack has drifted a alarming 26% — both being actively opposed by informed money. If You Believe (SR:148) is the most threatening on paper but returns after 354 days off, a serious absence concern in a maiden hurdle context. Each-way alternative: If You Believe. Main danger: If You Believe — If You Believe (SR:148, 11/2) holds the highest SR among the market-backed runners with a form line showing a win (1), and Cromwell's yard has given the better jockey booking in Keith Donoghue (13% strike rate) — a clear signal this is their stable number one — and the 7% market inward move suggests connections are confident despite the 354-day absence.