Southwell (AW) 20:30 RESULTED
Class 4 26 Oct 2026

Last Monday Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) · 2m102y

Official Result

Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Tarbat Ness (GB) Gina Mangan · John Berry
    6/1
  2. 5/1
  3. Third Benvoy (IRE)
    2/1F
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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 21 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Charging Thunder silks
Charging Thunder
Age 8 · 9-13
270043
80
85
92
8
9-13
★★★☆☆
—
7/1 11/4 7/1
Third last time out and a fourth two starts back, fresh from a run just 13 days ago, he has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 92 ranks him second of six. The risk is that he is winless in his last six starts and carries 139 lb.
AI verdict

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Shadow Dance silks
Shadow Dance
Age 6 · 9-13
670075
80
71
96
6
9-13
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 FCST 12/1
Shadow Dance steps up from a fifth last time out, 30 days ago, and has run over today's trip and on this going before, while our top-rated 96 gives him a narrow edge in this field of six. He is winless in recent starts, but he looks the one to beat off an official 80.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Benvoy silks
Benvoy FAV
Age 5 · 9-7
737/21
74
84
76
5
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
11/8 32/17 18/13
Benvoy won last time out and was second two starts back, with fitness not a worry after 19 days off, and he has run over today's trip and going. Even so, our figures rank him fifth of six, and carrying 133 lb makes it hard to fancy him after a win.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Tarbat Ness silks
Tarbat Ness
Age 7 · 9-5
310322
72
70
72
7
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
15/2 9/2 5/1
Tarbat Ness arrives in solid form, a second last time out and another second two starts back, but he's been unable to get his head in front since winning five starts back. He has run over today's trip and going, yet carrying 131 lb and ranked last of six on our figures, he's hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Vaguely Royal silks
Vaguely Royal
Age 6 · 9-5
611650
72
83
77
6
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
7/2 7/4 10/3
Vaguely Royal won twice in his last six starts, four and five starts back, and has run over today's trip and going before, while our 77 rating sits five pounds above his official 72. The main risk is a trainer cold at 1/24 and his unplaced effort last time out.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Solar Pass silks
Solar Pass
Age 4 · 9-4
222770
71
79
77
4
9-4
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 11/2 9/2
Solar Pass banked three seconds in her last six starts and has run over today's trip and going, while a fresh 15 days since her last run helps; our rating of 77 ranks her third of six. The risk is a slide to a seventh, then an unplaced run last time.
AI verdict

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Charging Thunder 7/1 open 3.75 7/1 open 3.75 7/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 4.00 7/1 open 4.33 7/1 open 4.00 7/1 Bet365
2 Shadow Dance 16/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 13.00 12/1 open 15.00 12/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 open 15.00 16/1 Bet365
3 Benvoy 11/8 open 3.50 11/8 open 2.88 11/8 open 3.25 11/8 open 3.25 11/8 open 3.25 11/8 open 3.50 11/8 Bet365
4 Tarbat Ness 15/2 open 5.50 6/1 open 5.50 5/1 5/1 7/1 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 15/2 Bet365
5 Vaguely Royal 7/2 open 5.50 7/2 open 5.50 10/3 open 3.00 10/3 open 3.00 7/2 open 2.75 10/3 open 2.88 7/2 Bet365
6 Solar Pass 5/1 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 9/2 open 9.00 5/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Benvoy

Speculative

Benvoy owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (94). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/8 Jo Davis Tom Marquand
68% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Solar Pass

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Andrew Balding
✓ Value Signal

Shadow Dance

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

16/1 · Rebecca Menzies
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
94 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.6 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
42 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.2 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Benvoy
55.3 11/8
2 6. Solar Pass
53.9 5/1
3 1. Charging Thunder
52.9 7/1
4 5. Vaguely Royal
51.4 7/2
5 4. Tarbat Ness
47.9 15/2
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Benvoy
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

3
Benvoy FAV
Age 5 · 9-7
11/8
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾 —

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 6 · 9-5
7/2
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾 —

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 4 · 9-4
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 8 · 9-13
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 85 🐾 —

SR 85 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 7 · 9-5
15/2
★★★☆☆ SR 70 🐾 —

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 6 · 9-13
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾 —

SR 71 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Benvoy
Confidence: Speculative

Benvoy (SR:84, 2/1) is the field's joint-highest rated runner, carries a manageable 9-7 — 6lb less than the top-weights — and arrives on a sharp form line of 21 (wins at last two starts) with the market backing him in 11%. Tom Marquand's booking (16% strike rate, 2626 career rides) is the strongest jockey engagement in the race, and DistFit:+ confirms Benvoy handles this marathon trip. The GoingFit:- flag is the one concern, but Southwell AW good is a controlled surface and his recent wins suggest he is in peak form that can override a marginal going preference. ClassMv:↑1 is modest given the field quality here, and the MarkMv:+5 penalty is offset by the weight advantage over rivals carrying more. Each-way alternative: Vaguely Royal. Main danger: Vaguely Royal — Vaguely Royal (SR:83, 9/4) has steamed in 14% in the market, drops two classes (ClassMv:↓2) which is a significant positive, and Billy Loughnane's 18% strike rate is the best in the field — the combination of class relief, market confidence and a top jockey makes him the most likely to deny Benvoy.

Case against 4 clamped
  • GoingFit:- is a live concern — Benvoy's headgear record shows only a tongue-tie ('t'), suggesting his two recent wins may have come on different going conditions that Southwell AW good does not repli…
  • Trainer Jo Davis has just 72 career runs in the database (11% strike rate) — a very thin sample for a small yard; limited big-race experience at this level raises execution risk.
  • Vaguely Royal (SR:83, 9/4) is backed in 14% with a stronger market move and Billy Loughnane (18% SR) — the superior jockey booking — is nearly as short in the market, suggesting market confidence in…
  • Form string 737/21 contains a long mid-career break (the '/') and a '7' just two runs before his winning streak — the two wins may flatter a horse who found easy opportunities rather than a horse in…
Shortlist Benvoy, Vaguely Royal, Solar Pass
Each-way: Vaguely Royal Danger: Vaguely Royal

🗺 The Course Class 4

2m102y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade