Dundalk 16:35 RESULTED
15 Aug 2026

Saturday 15 August Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap · 1m2f150y

Official Result

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Touch The Moon (IRE) Chris Hayes · William Durkan
    15/2
  2. 11/2
  3. 20/1
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Settled
  • 14 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Iron Fist silks
Iron Fist
Age 4 · 10-0
1-0230
95
86
93
4
10-0
15/2 6/1 15/2
SR 86 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 86 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Apercu silks
Apercu
Age 6 · 9-9
-48027
90
79
93
6
9-9
14/1 9/1 14/1
Second two starts back shows Apercu has the ability to compete at this level, and returning after 23 days she arrives in decent order; she has run over today's trip and going before, and at 135 lb from stall one, the mare is worth noting despite being winless in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Genoah silks
Genoah
Age 5 · 9-9
190256
90
79
89
5
9-9
12/1 17/2 12/1
Genoah drops into this off a sixth last time out, though a second three starts back hints at better, and he has run over today's trip and going before; carrying 135 lb from stall 12 on a rating of 90 makes life tough, but he is at least race-fit on a 12-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Star Harbour silks
Star Harbour
Age 8 · 9-9
042552
90
82
92
8
9-9
11/2 15/2 5/1
Star Harbour has been winless in his last six starts, though a pair of runner-up finishes at his best suggest ability, and he has experience over today's trip and conditions; the concern is the quick three-day turnaround and his tendency to find one or two too good.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Touch The Moon silks
Touch The Moon
Age 5 · 9-8
8-1248
89
82
92
5
9-8
15/2 17/2 7/1
Finished second three starts back and a winner four starts back, Touch The Moon arrives here fit on a 15-day turnaround, has run over today's trip, and carries 134 lb from stall six; the risk is that his last two runs have yielded an eighth and a fourth.
AI verdict

SR 82 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Crypto Force silks
Crypto Force
Age 6 · 9-6
4-4500
87
67
96
6
9-6
25/1 20/1 25/1
Crypto Force has experience of today's trip and conditions and, rated 96 against his rivals here, he shapes as a live threat despite carrying 132 lb from stall nine; the concern is that he has been winless in his last five starts, with two unplaced efforts most recently.
AI verdict

SR 67 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

7
Tribal Star silks
Tribal Star
Age 5 · 9-6
439020
87
75
90
5
9-6
10/1 9/1 10/1
Tribal Star showed up well for a second two starts back but has struggled either side of that effort, leaving him winless in his last six starts; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 132 lb from stall 11 makes this no easier.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Slieve Binnian silks
Slieve Binnian
Age 6 · 9-2
500697
83
81
89
6
9-2
9/2 4/1 9/2
Winless in his last six starts, Slieve Binnian arrives 37 days since a seventh and has experience of today's trip and conditions in his favour, though his recent form offers limited encouragement and, rated 89 by us, he shapes as a midfield player at best from stall seven carrying 128 lb.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Beauparc silks
Beauparc
Age 6 · 8-12
472662
79
68
84
6
8-12
20/1 18/1 20/1
Winless in her last six starts, Beauparc at least ran second last time out and has experience of today's distance and going, though two further sixths in recent starts suggest consistency remains elusive at 124 lb from stall ten.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Follow Me silks
Follow Me
Age 5 · 8-12
04-983
79
67
83
5
8-12
14/1 16/1 14/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked 11 of 14 on our figures, Follow Me faces a stiff task, and a trainer striking at just 5% in the past 14 days does little to inspire confidence, though he does have distance experience and a third last time out to note.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

11
Steel Cut silks
Steel Cut
Age 4 · 8-12
9-2548
79
56
77
4
8-12
28/1 25/1 28/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked near the foot of the field on our figures, Steel Cut faces a stiff ask here; he has experience of today's trip and conditions, and 26 days between runs suggests he arrives fresh, but little else in his recent profile invites confidence.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Quatre Bras silks
Quatre Bras
Age 5 · 8-11
408844
78
77
84
5
8-11
10/1 6/1 10/1
Winless in his last six starts, Quatre Bras at least shows some consistency with three fourth-place finishes in that sequence, though the pair of eighths and an unplaced effort are a concern; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 30 days between runs leaves him reasonably fresh.
AI verdict

SR 77 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Cala Bonita silks
Cala Bonita
Age 4 · 8-9
-48471
76
67
75
4
8-9
11/1 FCST 10/1
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Cala Bonita faces a stiff ask despite winning last time out, as her form beyond that has been patchy in recent starts; she has run over today's trip and going, and 16 days on from that victory she arrives reasonably fresh.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Nermal silks
Nermal
Age 3 · 8-7
522314
80
84
79
3
8-7
11/2 8/1 5/1
Ranked 12 of 14 on our figures, Nermal faces a stiff ask at his current rating, and a fourth last time out does little to inspire confidence, though he did score the start before that and has experience of today's trip and going.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Iron Fist 15/2 open 7.00 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 15/2 open 7.50 8/1 open 7.50 8/1 Coral
2 Apercu 14/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 16/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 14/1 open 10.00 16/1 Coral
3 Genoah 12/1 open 9.50 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 open 10.00 12/1 Bet365
4 Star Harbour 11/2 open 9.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 5/1 open 8.50 11/2 Bet365
5 Touch The Moon 15/2 open 12.00 7/1 open 10.00 7/1 open 10.00 7/1 open 10.00 7/1 open 9.50 15/2 Bet365
6 Crypto Force 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 21.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 Bet365
7 Tribal Star 10/1 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 Bet365
8 Slieve Binnian 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 open 5.00 9/2 9/2 Bet365
9 Beauparc 20/1 open 19.00 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 20/1 Bet365
10 Follow Me 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 open 17.00 14/1 Bet365
11 Steel Cut 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 open 26.00 28/1 28/1 Bet365
12 Quatre Bras 10/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.00 11/1 open 7.50 11/1 Coral
13 Cala Bonita 11/1 open 15.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 11/1 Bet365
14 Nermal 11/2 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 5/1 open 9.00 6/1 open 9.00 6/1 Coral

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Star Harbour

Speculative

Star Harbour owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (46) and market confidence (75). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/2 Adrian McGuinness Declan McDonogh
69% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Nermal

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/2 · Andrew Slattery
✓ Value Signal

Crypto Force

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · M D O'Callaghan
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.3 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
75 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +16.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.1 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor High conviction
67 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.1 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Star Harbour
55.2 11/2
2 14. Nermal
52.7 11/2
3 5. Touch The Moon
51.1 15/2
4 1. Iron Fist
50.6 15/2
5 8. Slieve Binnian
50.5 9/2
YOUR DECISION

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Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.

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🤖 AI view
Touch The Moon
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 6 · 9-2
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 8 · 9-9
11/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

14
Age 3 · 8-7
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 86 🐾

SR 86 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 5 · 9-8
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 5 · 9-6
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 75 🐾

SR 75 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

12
Age 5 · 8-11
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

13
Age 4 · 8-9
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 5 · 9-9
12/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 6 · 9-9
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾

SR 79 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 5 · 8-12
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾

SR 67 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 6 · 8-12
20/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 18/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Touch The Moon
Confidence: Speculative

Touch The Moon (SR:82, 8/1) is one of the stronger SRs in the field and carries a very manageable 9-8, giving it a real weight advantage over Iron Fist (10-0) and Apercu/Genoah/Star Harbour (9-9). Crucially, it is the only runner in the field showing a significant market move — steaming in 15% from its opening price — which in a 14-runner handicap at this level is a meaningful signal that connections are expecting a performance. Trainer William Durkan runs at a 13% strike rate from just 121 runners, suggesting a focused, selective operation that doesn't fire for fun, and Chris Hayes (11%, 355 runners) is a reliable booking. The recent form of 8-1248 shows a win and placed efforts mixed with less competitive outings, consistent with a horse that can run well fresh (15 days since last run) when the right race presents itself. Each-way alternative: Iron Fist. Main danger: Iron Fist — Iron Fist (SR:84, the field's joint-highest rating, 13/2) has confirmed DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — the only runner ticking both boxes definitively — and Shane Foley is a stronger jockey booking than most in this field, though the top-weight of 10-0 and a mark 11lb above last win are real concerns.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form figure '8' as the most recent run is a poor last-place finish, and the sequence 8-1248 read chronologically means the horse is regressing — beaten further back in its last outing than in any pre…
  • At 8/1 in a 14-runner handicap, Touch The Moon is NOT the market leader; Iron Fist (13/2) and Slieve Binnian (9/2) are both shorter, suggesting the 15% steam may simply be noise rather than a dominan…
  • SR:82 is matched exactly by Star Harbour and is exceeded by Iron Fist (SR:86) and Nermal (SR:84), so the speed-rating edge cited by the primary analyst does not actually exist — it's mid-table on SR.
  • William Durkan's 13% strike rate comes from only 121 runners, a very small sample that inflates the figure's reliability, and Chris Hayes's 11% book rate is below-average for a competitive 14-runner…
Shortlist Touch The Moon, Iron Fist, Nermal, Slieve Binnian
Each-way: Iron Fist Danger: Iron Fist

🗺 The Course Race conditions

1m2f150y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
14 Confirmed runners
Dundalk Track and setting