Newmarket (July) 14:10 RESULTED
Class 4 15 Aug 2026

Saturday 15 August Betway Grey Horse Handicap Stakes

Betway Grey Horse Handicap Stakes · 0m6f0y

Official Result

Betway Grey Horse Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Havana Blue (GB) Ryan Sexton · Julie Camacho
    6/4F
  2. 11/2
  3. 5/1
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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Havana Blue silks
Havana Blue
Age 6 · 9-12
654222
80
85
82
6
9-12
9/4 3/1 2/1
Havana Blue returns quickly off an eight-day turnaround, has experience of today's trip and going, and his sequence of three consecutive runner-up finishes marks him as the one to beat at the top of the ratings, though connections will be keen to see him convert that consistency into a win.
AI verdict

SR 85 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Maelstrom silks
Maelstrom
Age 4 · 9-12
1730-8
80
68
82
4
9-12
10/1 17/2 8/1
Maelstrom was a winner five starts back and arrives here 19 days later in solid nick, with experience over today's trip and going working in his favour and a rating of 82 giving him strong claims. The worry is that his last two runs — an unplaced effort and an eighth — suggest he must find his best form again.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Archduke Ferdinand silks
Archduke Ferdinand
Age 7 · 9-11
983041
79
76
77
7
9-11
5/1
Archduke Ferdinand showed a smart turn of form when winning last time out and arrives here fit on a 17-day turnaround, with experience of both today's trip and going in his favour; the concern is whether he can back that up after a patchy run of results before that success.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
First Folio silks
First Folio
Age 8 · 9-5
6-4604
73
70
82
8
9-5
17/2 9/1 8/1
First Folio arrives here fit enough after just 17 days off, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 82 makes him a leading contender from stall 2; the main risk is that he remains winless in his last five starts.
AI verdict

SR 70 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Secret Guest silks
Secret Guest
Age 6 · 9-5
586500
73
64
76
6
9-5
15/2 10/1 7/1
Secret Guest has run over today's trip and going before, and 19 days since his last outing he arrives reasonably fresh, but winless in his last six starts and drawn in stall nine carrying 131 lb, he faces a stern task from off the pace.
AI verdict

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Cayman Tai silks
Cayman Tai
Age 4 · 9-4
129357
72
55
77
4
9-4
16/1 17/2 14/1
Cayman Tai showed promise with a third three starts back, though he has managed just one win in his last six starts and a seventh last time out suggests he arrives short of his best; experience over today's trip and going, plus a rating of 77, keep him in the mix from stall 3 under 130 lb.
AI verdict

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

7
Strike silks
Strike
Age 8 · 9-2
283241
70
70
73
8
9-2
7/1 9/2 7/1
Strike won last time out and has run over today's trip and going, giving him an each-way profile, though 37 days off the track introduces a fitness query and he sits seventh of ten on our ratings carrying 128 lb from stall six.
AI verdict

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Nevasca Cinza silks
Nevasca Cinza
Age 3 · 9-0
-43423
72
66
66
3
9-0
11/1 7/1 11/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked eighth of ten on our figures, Nevasca Cinza is hard to fancy despite drawing stall one, though he has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a reasonable 32-day break carrying 126 lb.
AI verdict

SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Act Of Violence silks
Act Of Violence
Age 5 · 8-8
96-841
62
58
64
5
8-8
17/2 13/2 17/2
Act Of Violence won last time out — the form pick ends there, however, as his last-five profile shows three finishes of sixth or worse, and ranked ninth of ten on our figures, he faces a stiff ask here despite returning fit on a trip and going he has encountered before.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Fancy Dancer silks
Fancy Dancer
Age 4 · 8-2
-57852
49
32
54
4
8-2
66/1
Winless in her last five starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Fancy Dancer faces a stiff task here, though she did finish second last time out and has run over today's distance and going before, offering slim encouragement.
AI verdict

SR 32 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Havana Blue 9/4 open 4.33 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 open 4.00 9/4 open 4.33 2/1 open 4.00 9/4 Bet365
2 Maelstrom 10/1 open 12.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 8/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 12.00 10/1 Bet365
3 Archduke Ferdinand 5/1 5/1 5/1 5/1 open 7.00 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 Bet365
4 First Folio 17/2 open 10.00 8/1 open 12.00 8/1 open 12.00 8/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 12.00 17/2 Bet365
5 Secret Guest 15/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 7/1 open 12.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 Bet365
6 Cayman Tai 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 16/1 open 13.00 14/1 open 9.50 16/1 open 12.00 16/1 Bet365
7 Strike 7/1 open 6.00 15/2 open 5.50 15/2 open 5.50 15/2 open 6.00 8/1 open 6.00 8/1 Betfred
8 Nevasca Cinza 11/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 open 8.50 12/1 open 9.00 14/1 open 8.50 14/1 Coral
9 Act Of Violence 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 open 7.50 17/2 Bet365
10 Fancy Dancer 66/1 66/1 66/1 66/1 open 101.00 66/1 66/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Havana Blue

Speculative

Havana Blue owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/4 Julie Camacho Ryan Sexton
72% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Archduke Ferdinand

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Seb Spencer
✓ Value Signal

Fancy Dancer

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

66/1 · Hayley Burton
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
90 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Havana Blue
54.7 9/4
2 3. Archduke Ferdinand
51.5 5/1
3 7. Strike
50.0 7/1
4 5. Secret Guest
48.5 15/2
5 2. Maelstrom
46.1 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Havana Blue
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 6 · 9-12
9/4
★★☆☆☆ SR 85 🐾

SR 85 suggests ability but 9/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 7 · 9-11
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 8 · 9-2
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 70 🐾

SR 70 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 6 · 9-5
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 8 · 9-5
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 70 🐾

SR 70 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Age 5 · 8-8
17/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾

SR 58 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 4 · 9-12
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾

SR 68 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Age 3 · 9-0
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 66 🐾

SR 66 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 4 · 9-4
16/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 55 🐾

SR 55 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Havana Blue
Confidence: Speculative

Havana Blue (SR 85, 9/4) is comfortably the highest-rated horse in this field by a margin of 9 points over Archduke Ferdinand, and the market has hammered it in 26% from its opening price — the strongest steam in the race. The form string 654222 shows consistent placed efforts and a horse in a rhythm (only 8 days since last run), while Course:W1P2 at Newmarket July confirms genuine affinity for the track. The 9-12 weight is the joint heaviest burden alongside Maelstrom, but at SR 85 in a Class 4 sprint, this horse has a clear ability edge that absorbs the weight penalty — and Julie Camacho's yard has two runners here, with Havana Blue clearly the stable's number-one booking given Ryan Sexton vs Clifford Lee. DistFit:- is the principal concern at 6f, but the market confidence overrides that reservation. Each-way alternative: Archduke Ferdinand. Main danger: Archduke Ferdinand — Archduke Ferdinand (SR 76, 5/1) posted a '1' last time out, carries only 9-11, has a confirmed GoingFit:+ on today's good-to-firm ground, and at 5/1 represents the best-priced alternative with recent winning form at this class.

Case against 4 clamped
  • DistFit:- at 6f is a concrete flag — Havana Blue's form string of 654222 shows consistent placing but no win, and the distance unsuitability has not been resolved by the market confidence alone.
  • Ryan Sexton's yard strike rate is only 7% (102 runs) — a materially poor conversion rate for a trainer's supposed number-one booking at 9/4 in a competitive Class 4 sprint.
  • Archduke Ferdinand (SR 76, Form:983041) arrives on a +5 market mover with a recent win and 1lb less weight — represents a live threat the primary analyst undersells given Havana Blue's six-run sequen…
  • The form string 654222 shows six consecutive races without a win; at SR 85 in Class 4, if this horse was going to break through it arguably should have done so already, raising a question about a rec…
Shortlist Havana Blue, Archduke Ferdinand, Maelstrom, First Folio
Each-way: Archduke Ferdinand Danger: Archduke Ferdinand

🗺 The Course Class 4

0m6f0y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Newmarket (July) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade