Fit after just four days off, You Make Me Smile has run over today's trip and on this going, and a second and a third in her last five starts show some ability. However, she's winless in that spell, was a fifth last time, and carries 137 lb.
Form last 6-73285
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
55SR56RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 55 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Duke Of Leggagh arrives fresh enough after 27 days, having finished fifth last time out, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 71 puts him top of the 18 and well clear of his official 58, though he is winless in his last five and carries 140 lb.
Form last 6-90005
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
37SR71RPR58OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Mapa is winless in her last six, finishing eighth last time out and unplaced in four of the five runs before that, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going and is back after 23 days, but ranked 16 of 18 on our figures, she looks up against it off 127 lb.
Form last 6000608
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
23SR49RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 23 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Dark Summit arrives in cracking nick, second last time out and third two starts back, and he's back quickly after just seven days; he has run on today's going, though he's yet to win and that remains the main risk, with 144 lb to carry.
Form last 6083032
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
60SR68RPR62OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 60 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Metamorpheus arrives fit after 27 days, a third last time out and a winner three starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 62 ranks him fourth of 18, though 139 lb is the main risk.
Form last 635-143
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
57SR62RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ranked third of 18 on our rating of 63, nine points clear of his official mark of 54, The Rock Factor has run over today's going and gets a case as a leading danger. The risk is plain: he's finished eighth or ninth in his last four starts and returns after 137 days off.
Form last 69899
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR63RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Third last time out and a second the run before, Starting Monday arrives quick-fit after seven days and has run over today's trip and going, though he's won just once in his last five and carries 135 lb. Our rating of 60 ranks him seventh of 18, a midfield profile.
Form last 6-01523
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR60RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Ellaat is winless in his last four, finishing seventh last time out, and returns after 139 days off, which raises fitness questions. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 60 sits above his official 52 while he carries 134 lb.
Form last 6/80-07
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR61RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Inver Bay arrives fresh from a win last time out just 15 days ago, and has run over today's trip, but that came after an eighth three starts back and an unplaced effort before that. Carrying 134 lb off an official mark of 52, she looks a midfield sort, with our rating ranking her 14th of 18.
Form last 6080-1
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR52RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 5/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Pure Granite won last time out, but that came after a ninth, a fourth, a sixth and an unplaced run, and he is 4 lb below his official mark of 52 on our figures. He has run on today's going and is fit after 16 days, yet carrying 134 lb he looks tough to fancy as our bottom-ranked runner.
Form last 606-491
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
49SR48RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 49 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Calamint is yet to win in her last five starts, though a third two starts back and a second four starts back show she can get involved, and she has run over today's trip and going. Unplaced last time and carrying 131 lb off 49 hold her back, despite our rating of 60.
Form last 66-2830
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR60RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 14/1.
Sands Castle is winless in her last six, with a second four starts back the only real shine among her recent runs and an eighth last time out, though she has run over today's trip and is back quickly after eight days. Our rating of 60 sits above her official 54, but 130 lb is a big burden.
Form last 6502008
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
37SR60RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 37 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 18/1.
Surrey Force returns after 280 days off, having finished eighth last time out, eighth two starts back and third four starts back, so he is winless in recent starts. He has run over today's trip and our rating of 57 sits above his official 48, but 130 lb and the long absence temper the case.
Form last 63/088-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
25SR57RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 25 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Winless in her last six, Sweetie Too was seventh last time out, 29 days ago, and has run over today's trip, but a fourth four starts back is her best recent finish. Our rating of 54 sits just above her official 52, though carrying 128 lb leaves her plenty to prove.
Form last 6084507
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR54RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last six, Limestone Red has run over today's trip and going before and showed some promise with a third three starts back, but he was seventh last time out and meets this field carrying 127 lb off an official mark of 45, with our rating of 58 only ninth of 18.
Form last 6882357
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
50SR58RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 50 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Omissions is hard to fancy, winless in his last four with a pair of ninth-place finishes and unplaced efforts either side, and he returns after 76 days off. His official rating of 51 is the only crumb, but our figures rank him among the lowest of the field.
Form last 69-090
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
21SR41RPR51OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 21 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Premier Princess is winless in her last six, with a seventh last time out and nothing better than a fifth six starts back, though she has run over today's trip and going before. Our rating of 52 sits above her official 47, but a trainer on 1/20 lately offers little support.
Form last 6506807
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR52RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Tintinabulla is hard to fancy, winless in her last six and ranked 15th of 18 on our figures, though a third last time out, 26 days ago, suggests she is heading the right way, and she has run over today's trip and going before.
Form last 6087043
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
51SR51RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 51 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Chant d'Or is hard to fancy, yet to win in his last five starts and unplaced in three of them, though a fifth last time out is his best recent effort and he has run over today's trip. Rated 39 on our figures, he sits at the bottom of this field.
Form last 600-705
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
29SR39RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 29 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Duleek Street is hard to fancy, yet to win in his last four starts and beaten into seventh twice and ninth before an unplaced latest effort, with a yard 0/24 over the last 14 days. On the plus side, he has run over today's trip, is only 15 days since his last run and races off a lowly 40.
Form last 69/77-0
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
24SR49RPR40OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 24 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Winless in his last five, The Monday Club was unplaced last time out and a ninth two starts back, so he is hard to fancy, and a ranking of 19 of 18 on our figures confirms it. In his favour, he has run over today's trip and tackles it off a modest official mark of 45 after 29 days off.
Form last 655090
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR45RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Dark Summit owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (77). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
5/1Paul W FlynnJ M Sheridan
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
You Make Me Smile
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
15/2 · P A Fahy✓ Value Signal
Mapa
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Ms Sheila Lavery◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Inver Bay (SR:59, 5/1) is the standout on multiple aligned signals: proven at today's distance (DistFit:+), the market has backed him meaningfully (Mkt:in15%), and his form reads 080-1 — a recent winner returning after just 15 days in good order. At 9-8 he carries a lighter burden than Dark Summit (10-4) and avoids the going concern that afflicts several rivals (GoingFit:? is neutral rather than negative, meaning no evidence against him on heavy). The in15% market move in a 21-runner handicap at 5/1 is a significant steer — that is not noise. Dark Summit (5/1 co-favourite, SR:60) is marginally the top SR but carries 10-4 top-weight, has a proven poor going record (GoingFit:-), and is only 7 days off his last run with a trip that is unproven (DistFit:?), making Inver Bay the more rounded case.
Each-way alternative: Starting Monday.
Main danger: Dark Summit — Dark Summit holds the top SR in the field (60) and shares the joint-shortest price at 5/1 with a capable jockey booking, and if the heavy ground inconveniences him less than his GoingFit:- suggests he has the raw ability to win.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Inver Bay's form reads 080-1 — his win was sandwiched between a 0 and an 8, suggesting inconsistency; the single recent win may flatter a horse prone to running below par.
Trainer Aidan Anthony Howard strikes at just 7% with a small yard (112 runners), offering limited confidence that the yard can routinely deliver horses primed for big-field handicap wins.
Jockey Robbie Colgan's 5% strike rate in a 21-runner competitive handicap at Galway is a meaningful negative — big-field navigation and positional racing require a high-percentage pilot.
You Make Me Smile (in51% market move, Course:W1P1) and Metamorpheus (in10%, DistFit implied by form) both offer stronger market/course signals at bigger prices, suggesting the in15% move for Inver Ba…
ShortlistInver Bay, Dark Summit, Starting Monday, You Make Me Smile