Chester 14:45 RESULTED
Class 4 11 Jul 2026

Last Saturday Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)

Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (Div 1) · 7f127y

Official Result

Tom Jones Live At Chester Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Advance Twentyfive (FR) Harry Russell · Richard & Peter Fahey
    22/1
  2. Second Vixey (GB)
    17/2
  3. Third Giant (GB)
    9/2
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
  • 1 NR
Saturday Draw Updated 4 days, 16 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
?
Eagle Bay silks
Eagle Bay Non-Runner
Age 3 · 9-7
3-11
85
75
85OR
3
9-7
SP 31/19 3/2
Two wins in his last three starts look strong on paper, yet he's ranked only ninth of ten on our figures. Ran over today's trip before and fit enough 14 days on, but hard to fancy from that lowly spot, drawn 5.
1
Percy's Lad silks
Percy's Lad
Age 8 · 10-4
4/0062
87
83
87OR
8
10-4
9/4 9/2 9/4
Boasts the smartest figures in this field, backed by a good second last time out and fitness in hand from a run just 12 days ago. Drawn 4, and yet to get his head in front this spell, but clearly the leading contender here.
AI verdict

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Miami Matrix silks
Miami Matrix
Age 4 · 10-1
002-49
84
82
84OR
4
10-1
6/1 9/2 6/1
A leading threat on figures, with a runner-up effort three starts back the standout in this sequence, though it's a stretch after 42 days off and a below-par ninth last time out. Drawn 3, and yet to score this spell, but capable of bouncing back.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Obelix silks
Obelix
Age 6 · 10-0
89-015
83
84
83OR
6
10-0
3/1 6/1 5/2
A leading contender who won two starts back, since dipping into modest placings including a below-par run last time out. Ran over today's trip before, fresh enough 21 days on and drawn 2, he clearly holds claims on the stronger of his recent efforts.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Vixey silks
Vixey
Age 6 · 9-8
1335-8
77
71
77OR
6
9-8
15/2 12/1 13/2
Outclassed on these figures, with a lone win five starts back since fading into modest placings, an eighth last time out among them. Raced over today's trip before, fitness fine 17 days on, but a moderate speed figure leaves plenty to find from draw 8.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
He's A Gentleman silks
He's A Gentleman
Age 7 · 9-7
29-722
76
78
76OR
7
9-7
18/1 11/1 18/1
Frequently placed without landing the prize, with three runner-up efforts in his last five starts, the latest of them last time out. A 102-day layoff is the obvious concern, though he's raced over today's trip before, and drawn 10, looks no better than a minor player in this company.
AI verdict

SR 78 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Moon Beginnings silks
Moon Beginnings
Age 4 · 9-5
-88054
74
71
74OR
4
9-5
11/1 11/1 10/1
A modest recent record, without a placing better than fourth in his last five starts, including two below-par efforts further back in that sequence. Fit enough 29 days on and with today's trip previously covered, drawn 9, he's more workmanlike than incisive on these figures.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Paws For Thought silks
Paws For Thought
Age 8 · 9-3
09-075
72
60
72OR
8
9-3
25/1 22/1 25/1
Yet to threaten the frame in this sequence, with nothing better than a fifth in his last five starts and two unplaced efforts among them. Quick enough back within 16 days and having raced over today's trip before, drawn 7 he needs more than a step forward to feature.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Advance Twentyfive silks
Advance Twentyfive
Age 3 · 9-0
95-607
78
55
78OR
3
9-0
22/1 28/1 22/1
Our figures place him above his recent form, which reads modestly with nothing better than fifth in his last five starts. Fresh from a 42-day break and with today's trip covered before, drawn 6, the scope in his figures makes him a leading threat despite that form.
AI verdict

SR 55 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Giant silks
Giant
Age 6 · 8-11
630024
60
69
60OR
6
8-11
7/1 15/2 13/2
Prop the field on official and our figures alike, last of ten, with modest placings including two unplaced efforts in his last six starts. A strong speed figure is the one plus, and though fit on a swift 9-day turnaround, he's hard to fancy from draw 1.
AI verdict

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
0 Eagle Bay 7/4 13/8 13/8 13/8 6/4 open 2.75 7/4 Bet365
1 Percy's Lad 9/4 open 6.00 9/4 open 5.50 9/4 open 5.50 9/4 open 5.50 9/4 open 5.50 9/4 Bet365
2 Miami Matrix 6/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 open 5.50 13/2 Coral
3 Obelix 3/1 open 7.00 5/2 open 7.00 5/2 open 7.00 11/4 open 7.00 5/2 open 7.00 3/1 Bet365
4 Vixey 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 13/2 open 13.00 15/2 open 13.00 15/2 Bet365
6 He's A Gentleman 18/1 open 12.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 open 13.00 18/1 Bet365
7 Moon Beginnings 11/1 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 11/1 Bet365
8 Paws For Thought 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 open 23.00 25/1 Bet365
9 Advance Twentyfive 22/1 open 34.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 open 29.00 22/1 Bet365
10 Giant 7/1 open 8.50 7/1 open 9.50 7/1 open 9.50 7/1 open 9.50 13/2 open 9.50 7/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Obelix

Speculative

Obelix owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (47) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 Julie Camacho Dylan Hogan
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Percy's Lad

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/4 · Daniel & Claire Kubler
✓ Value Signal

Paws For Thought

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Donald McCain
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +17.7 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
43 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
41 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.1 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.1 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Obelix
57.1 3/1
2 1. Percy's Lad
56.2 9/4
3 2. Miami Matrix
52.3 6/1
4 4. Vixey
48.4 15/2
5 7. Moon Beginnings
47.7 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Obelix
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 8 · 10-4
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 83 🐾

SR 83 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 6 · 10-0
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 10-1
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

10
Age 6 · 8-11
7/1
★★★☆☆ SR 69 🐾

SR 69 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 6 · 9-8
15/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 4 · 9-5
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 7 · 9-7
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 78 🐾

SR 78 suggests ability but 8/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Obelix
Confidence: Medium

Obelix (SR:84, 7/2) leads the field on ability and is the most comprehensively supported by conditions: DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirm he handles today's 7f127y on good ground, the strongest distance/going combination in the field. The market has steamed in 37% — the sharpest move among the genuine contenders — suggesting informed money is very much on his side. He's running off a mark 5lb higher than his last win (MarkMv:+5), which is the main caveat, but Julie Camacho's 12% yard strike rate and the significant market support suggest connections believe the recent Class 5 win (form ending in '5' with the prior '0-1' pattern indicating a horse finding its form) has been rated fairly. Wgt:10-0 is manageable versus Percy's Lad's top-weight 10-4. Each-way alternative: Miami Matrix. Main danger: Percy's Lad — Percy's Lad (SR:83, 11/4) has steamed in 35% in the market — the second sharpest move — and Edward Greatrex at 14% strike rate gives it strong handler confidence, though DistFit:- and GoingFit:- on today's conditions are genuine negatives that the market may be overriding.

Shortlist Obelix, Percy's Lad, Miami Matrix
Each-way: Miami Matrix Danger: Percy's Lad

🗺 The Course Class 4

7f127y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Chester Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade