Southwell (AW) 18:30 RESULTED
Class 6 15 Oct 2026

Yesterday Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II) · 7f14y

Official Result

Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Distillate (GB) M. P. Sheehy · Adrian McGuinness
    11/4F
  2. Second Based (IRE)
    7/2
  3. 100/30
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Settled
  • 13 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Men of Honour silks
Men of Honour
Age 4 · 9-9
695778
54
54
63
4
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1 FCST 6/1
Men of Honour tops our ratings at 62 against an official mark of 54, and he's fresh from a run 13 days ago, having run over today's trip and going before from stall 10. The risk is obvious though: he's winless in his last six, finishing eighth last time out, with the yard out of form at 1/26.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Sonbelievable silks
Sonbelievable
Age 3 · 9-7
798
54
56
50
3
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
7/2 9/2 7/2
Sonbelievable is hard to fancy, beaten into eighth last time out after a ninth and a seventh, and he returns from 90 days off carrying 133 lb from draw 2. He has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him tenth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Based silks
Based
Age 3 · 9-6
734074
53
59
62
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
9/2 2/1 4/1
Fourth last time out and rested 24 days, Based has run over today's trip and going before, and his rating of 62 ranks him second of 13 on our figures. The risk is a winless record in his last six, with a seventh two starts back, while he carries 132 lb from draw 11.
AI verdict

SR 59 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Auradue silks
Auradue
Age 4 · 9-5
6647
50
45
47
4
9-5
★★☆☆☆
—
18/1 4/1 16/1
Auradue is winless in her last four, finishing seventh last time out after a fourth two starts back, and she returns from 82 days off. She has run over today's trip and her official rating of 50 isn't daunting, but 131 lb and a 12th-of-13 ranking on our figures make her hard to fancy.
AI verdict

SR 45 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Vitalline silks
Vitalline
Age 8 · 9-4
992628
49
54
55
8
9-4
★★☆☆☆
—
9/1 11/1 9/1
Vitalline is yet to win in his last six, though a second two starts back and another second four starts back show he can get involved, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Eighth last time out and 130 lb from stall 1 temper the appeal, but 15 days' rest is fine.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Mickey Mongoose silks
Mickey Mongoose
Age 6 · 9-3
814006
48
46
54
6
9-3
★★☆☆☆
—
8/1 8/1 7/1
Mickey Mongoose was sixth last time out and has been unplaced in his two runs before that, though he did win five starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 54 sits above his official 48, but 129 lb from stall five asks plenty.
AI verdict

SR 46 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Megaphone silks
Megaphone
Age 4 · 9-3
340956
48
41
56
4
9-3
★☆☆☆☆
—
12/1 16/1 10/1
Megaphone is yet to win in his last six starts, though a sixth last time out and a third six starts back show he's not far off, and our rating of 56 ranks him fourth of 13 against an official 48. He has run over today's trip and going, but 59 days off and 129 lb are the main worries.
AI verdict

SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

8
Distillate silks
Distillate FAV
Age 6 · 9-2
0B0388
47
59
62
6
9-2
★★★☆☆
—
11/4 7/2 9/4
Distillate is fresh enough after 15 days off and has run over today's trip and on this going, with a third three starts back her best recent finish. Two eighths since temper that, but our figures rank her third of 13, and she's a sound pick from draw 12.
AI verdict

SR 59 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

9
Gloriola silks
Gloriola
Age 3 · 9-1
-05236
48
36
50
3
9-1
★☆☆☆☆
—
25/1 14/1 20/1
Yet to win in her last five, Gloriola showed a decent level with a third and a second two and three starts back before a sixth last time out, and she has run over today's trip and going. A 70-day break and 127 lb from draw 9 temper the appeal, though our rating of 50 sits her ninth of 13.
AI verdict

SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

10
Edergole's Gift silks
Edergole's Gift
Age 5 · 9-0
954486
45
47
52
5
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
11/1 12/1 10/1
Winless in her last six, Edergole's Gift has been consistent without troubling the frame, finishing sixth last time out and fourth on two earlier starts, and she's back quickly after nine days. She has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 52 sits above her official 45, though 126 lb from draw 3 is a lot to carry.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

11
Neat And Tidy silks
Neat And Tidy
Age 3 · 9-0
055407
47
30
52
3
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
40/1 FCST 33/1
Winless in her last six, Neat And Tidy was seventh last time out 17 days ago, though a fourth three starts back is her best recent finish, and she has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 52 sits above her official 47, but she carries 126 lb from stall 13.
AI verdict

SR 30 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.

12
Pink Socks silks
Pink Socks
Age 7 · 9-0
596008
44
27
50
7
9-0
★☆☆☆☆
—
66/1 40/1 50/1
Pink Socks is winless in her last six, finishing eighth last time out and unplaced in the two runs before, which makes her hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going and returns after 17 days, while our figures rank her eleventh of thirteen.
AI verdict

SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

13
My Prerogative silks
My Prerogative
Age 3 · 8-12
8-585
43
28
43
3
8-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
22/1 14/1 18/1
My Prerogative is winless in her last four, finishing fifth last time out, an eighth two starts back, a fifth three back and an eighth four back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, and 24 days since her last run is fine, but our figures rank her last of 13.
AI verdict

SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Men of Honour 7/1 open 11.00 6/1 13/2 open 8.50 13/2 open 8.50 7/1 13/2 7/1 Bet365
2 Sonbelievable 7/2 open 8.00 4/1 open 9.00 7/2 open 8.50 7/2 open 8.50 4/1 open 8.50 7/2 open 5.50 4/1 Paddy Power
3 Based 9/2 open 4.50 4/1 open 3.00 4/1 open 3.75 4/1 open 3.75 9/2 open 3.75 4/1 open 3.50 9/2 Bet365
4 Auradue 18/1 open 5.00 16/1 open 7.00 16/1 open 6.00 16/1 open 6.00 18/1 open 6.00 16/1 open 6.50 18/1 Bet365
5 Vitalline 9/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 15.00 9/1 open 12.00 9/1 Bet365
6 Mickey Mongoose 8/1 7/1 open 12.00 15/2 open 10.00 15/2 open 10.00 8/1 open 10.00 15/2 open 12.00 8/1 Bet365
7 Megaphone 12/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 19.00 11/1 open 17.00 12/1 open 17.00 11/1 open 19.00 12/1 Bet365
8 Distillate 11/4 open 5.00 9/4 open 4.50 9/4 open 5.00 9/4 open 5.00 5/2 open 5.00 5/2 open 4.50 11/4 Bet365
9 Gloriola 25/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 17.00 20/1 open 17.00 22/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 17.00 25/1 Bet365
10 Edergole's Gift 11/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 11/1 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 11/1 Bet365
11 Neat And Tidy 40/1 open 34.00 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 40/1 Bet365
12 Pink Socks 66/1 open 51.00 50/1 open 41.00 50/1 50/1 50/1 50/1 open 41.00 66/1 Bet365
13 My Prerogative 22/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 17.00 18/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 18/1 open 15.00 22/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Distillate

Speculative

Distillate owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/4 Adrian McGuinness M. P. Sheehy
72% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Based

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

9/2 · William Knight
✓ Value Signal

Neat And Tidy

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Damien Wingrove
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
33 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +12.5 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
87 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.2 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
30 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.3 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
36 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.6 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 8. Distillate
48.6 11/4
2 3. Based
45.3 9/2
3 2. Sonbelievable
43.6 7/2
4 5. Vitalline
43.0 9/1
5 6. Mickey Mongoose
42.2 8/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Sonbelievable
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

8
Age 6 · 9-2
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 3 · 9-7
7/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 56 🐾 —

SR 56 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 3 · 9-6
9/2
★★☆☆☆ SR 59 🐾 —

SR 59 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

1
Age 4 · 9-9
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Age 6 · 9-3
8/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 46 🐾 —

SR 46 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Age 8 · 9-4
9/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 5 · 9-0
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 47 🐾 —

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.

7
Age 4 · 9-3
12/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 41 🐾 —

SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

4
Age 4 · 9-5
18/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 45 🐾 —

SR 45 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Sonbelievable
Confidence: Speculative

Sonbelievable (SR:56, 7/2, Wgt:9-7) has been steamed in 35% from its opening price — the most emphatic market move in the field by some distance — suggesting strong stable confidence after 90 days off. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) into a Class 6 heat is a significant advantage, and at 3 years old there is scope for improvement that older rivals in this basement race lack. Luke Morris (12% career strike rate, 3,082 runners — a seasoned operator) is a positive booking for a Joseph Parr yard (12%, 413 runners) that sends runners out fit to win. The DistFit:- is noted — this trip is unproven — but GoingFit:? rather than GoingFit:- means there is no confirmed aversion to Good ground, and in a field where every runner carries a DistFit:-, it is not a differentiating weakness. Each-way alternative: Distillate. Main danger: Distillate — Distillate (SR:59, 4/1, Wgt:9-2) shares the joint-highest SR in the field, carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders, drops two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) and has had its mark cut by 6lb (MarkMv:-6), making it potentially well-treated on a line through its best form despite the messy recent record of 0B0388.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 90-day absence is a significant fitness question — Joseph Parr's 12% strike rate gives no special confidence that first-time-out runners return cherry ripe, and there is no course-and-distance win to…
  • Shortest form line in the field (only 3 runs: 7-9-8) — all three starts show finishes outside the places, with no evidence of progression toward a winning performance.
  • Based (SR:59, same odds 7/2, Cieren Fallon 17% SR) has a higher speed rating, a busier and more recent campaign (24 days), and a superior jockey strike rate — representing a more solid value case at…
  • Carries 9-7, the second-highest weight in the field, conceding lumps to most rivals including Based and Vitalline who are fresher or course-proven — a material burden in a competitive Class 6.
Shortlist Sonbelievable, Distillate, Based, Men of Honour
Each-way: Distillate Danger: Distillate

🗺 The Course Class 6

7f14y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
13 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 6 Race grade