Men of Honour tops our ratings at 62 against an official mark of 54, and he's fresh from a run 13 days ago, having run over today's trip and going before from stall 10. The risk is obvious though: he's winless in his last six, finishing eighth last time out, with the yard out of form at 1/26.
Form last 6695778
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR63RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Sonbelievable is hard to fancy, beaten into eighth last time out after a ninth and a seventh, and he returns from 90 days off carrying 133 lb from draw 2. He has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank him tenth of 13.
Form last 6798
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR50RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Fourth last time out and rested 24 days, Based has run over today's trip and going before, and his rating of 62 ranks him second of 13 on our figures. The risk is a winless record in his last six, with a seventh two starts back, while he carries 132 lb from draw 11.
Form last 6734074
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
59SR62RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Auradue is winless in her last four, finishing seventh last time out after a fourth two starts back, and she returns from 82 days off. She has run over today's trip and her official rating of 50 isn't daunting, but 131 lb and a 12th-of-13 ranking on our figures make her hard to fancy.
Form last 66647
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
45SR47RPR50OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Vitalline is yet to win in his last six, though a second two starts back and another second four starts back show he can get involved, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Eighth last time out and 130 lb from stall 1 temper the appeal, but 15 days' rest is fine.
Form last 6992628
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
54SR55RPR49OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 54 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Mickey Mongoose was sixth last time out and has been unplaced in his two runs before that, though he did win five starts back and has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 54 sits above his official 48, but 129 lb from stall five asks plenty.
Form last 6814006
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
46SR54RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 46 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Megaphone is yet to win in his last six starts, though a sixth last time out and a third six starts back show he's not far off, and our rating of 56 ranks him fourth of 13 against an official 48. He has run over today's trip and going, but 59 days off and 129 lb are the main worries.
Form last 6340956
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR56RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Distillate is fresh enough after 15 days off and has run over today's trip and on this going, with a third three starts back her best recent finish. Two eighths since temper that, but our figures rank her third of 13, and she's a sound pick from draw 12.
Form last 60B0388
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
59SR62RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 59 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Yet to win in her last five, Gloriola showed a decent level with a third and a second two and three starts back before a sixth last time out, and she has run over today's trip and going. A 70-day break and 127 lb from draw 9 temper the appeal, though our rating of 50 sits her ninth of 13.
Form last 6-05236
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
36SR50RPR48OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 36 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Winless in her last six, Edergole's Gift has been consistent without troubling the frame, finishing sixth last time out and fourth on two earlier starts, and she's back quickly after nine days. She has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 52 sits above her official 45, though 126 lb from draw 3 is a lot to carry.
Form last 6954486
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
47SR52RPR45OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 11/1.
Winless in her last six, Neat And Tidy was seventh last time out 17 days ago, though a fourth three starts back is her best recent finish, and she has run over today's trip and going. Our rating of 52 sits above her official 47, but she carries 126 lb from stall 13.
Form last 6055407
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
30SR52RPR47OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 30 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 40/1.
Pink Socks is winless in her last six, finishing eighth last time out and unplaced in the two runs before, which makes her hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going and returns after 17 days, while our figures rank her eleventh of thirteen.
Form last 6596008
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
27SR50RPR44OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 27 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.
My Prerogative is winless in her last four, finishing fifth last time out, an eighth two starts back, a fifth three back and an eighth four back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going, and 24 days since her last run is fine, but our figures rank her last of 13.
Form last 68-585
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
28SR43RPR43OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 28 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Distillate owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (33) and market confidence (87). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
11/4Adrian McGuinnessM. P. Sheehy
72%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Based
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
9/2 · William Knight✓ Value Signal
Neat And Tidy
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
40/1 · Damien Wingrove◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Sonbelievable (SR:56, 7/2, Wgt:9-7) has been steamed in 35% from its opening price — the most emphatic market move in the field by some distance — suggesting strong stable confidence after 90 days off. Dropping two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) into a Class 6 heat is a significant advantage, and at 3 years old there is scope for improvement that older rivals in this basement race lack. Luke Morris (12% career strike rate, 3,082 runners — a seasoned operator) is a positive booking for a Joseph Parr yard (12%, 413 runners) that sends runners out fit to win. The DistFit:- is noted — this trip is unproven — but GoingFit:? rather than GoingFit:- means there is no confirmed aversion to Good ground, and in a field where every runner carries a DistFit:-, it is not a differentiating weakness.
Each-way alternative: Distillate.
Main danger: Distillate — Distillate (SR:59, 4/1, Wgt:9-2) shares the joint-highest SR in the field, carries the lightest weight of the leading contenders, drops two class tiers (ClassMv:↓2) and has had its mark cut by 6lb (MarkMv:-6), making it potentially well-treated on a line through its best form despite the messy recent record of 0B0388.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
90-day absence is a significant fitness question — Joseph Parr's 12% strike rate gives no special confidence that first-time-out runners return cherry ripe, and there is no course-and-distance win to…
Shortest form line in the field (only 3 runs: 7-9-8) — all three starts show finishes outside the places, with no evidence of progression toward a winning performance.
Based (SR:59, same odds 7/2, Cieren Fallon 17% SR) has a higher speed rating, a busier and more recent campaign (24 days), and a superior jockey strike rate — representing a more solid value case at…
Carries 9-7, the second-highest weight in the field, conceding lumps to most rivals including Based and Vitalline who are fresher or course-proven — a material burden in a competitive Class 6.
ShortlistSonbelievable, Distillate, Based, Men of Honour