Fontwell 17:14 RESULTED
Class 5 15 Oct 2026

Yesterday tigerbet.co.uk Lucky Odds Boost Handicap Hurdle Race

tigerbet.co.uk Lucky Odds Boost Handicap Hurdle Race · 2m5f164y

Official Result

tigerbet.co.uk Lucky Odds Boost Handicap Hurdle Race

Confirmed
  1. Winner Ballymoreen (IRE) Harry Cobden · Emma Lavelle
    4/5F
  2. 6/1
  3. 9/2
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12:55–16:50 · 8 races

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13:44–17:14 · 7 races

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16:30–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 6 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 day ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Just Forty silks
Just Forty
Age 5 · 11-12
425PP-
103
74
103OR
5
11-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
40/1 16/1 20/1
Lightly raced and unexposed, Just Forty was pulled up in his last two outings, but he was a second four starts back and a fifth three starts back, so there may be more to come. He returns after 276 days off and carries 166 lb.
AI verdict

SR 74 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.

2
Painted Wolf silks
Painted Wolf
Age 8 · 11-12
P5P21-
103
101
102
8
11-12
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 7/4 7/2
Painted Wolf won last time out and was second the run before, a ready-made case for a leading threat, with our top ranking at 102 backing it up. The one concern is a 192-day absence, and he also shoulders 166 lb.
AI verdict

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
That Is Blue silks
That Is Blue
Age 5 · 11-6
333-
97
102
100
5
11-6
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 9/2 19/5
Three straight thirds mark That Is Blue out as a consistent threat, and she has run over today's trip, carries 160 lb off an official mark of 97, and is rated 100 by us. The one concern is a 174-day absence, so fitness is the question.
AI verdict

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Brave Guest silks
Brave Guest
Age 4 · 11-4
22U5-7
97
84
100
4
11-4
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 12/1 7/1
Brave Guest bids to bounce back after a seventh last time out, having been second five starts back and again four starts back, and he is yet to win in his last five. Our rating of 100 ranks him second of six, but 48 days off and 158 lb are the main concerns.
AI verdict

SR 84 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Ballymoreen silks
Ballymoreen FAV
Age 6 · 11-2
41642-
93
105
98
6
11-2
★★★☆☆
—
11/10 18/13 10/11
Ballymoreen was second last time out, but that came 192 days ago, and she has only a fourth and a sixth in between her win four starts back and that effort, so a long absence is a worry. Carrying 156 lb off an official mark of 93 is a stiff ask, and our rating ranks her fifth of six.
AI verdict

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Atreides silks
Atreides
Age 8 · 11-2
353036
93
97
99
8
11-2
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 5/1 7/2
Atreides has been in the frame three times in his last six, including a third two starts back, and comes here fresh enough after 23 days off, having already run over today's trip. A sixth last time out is the one blot, but he is our pick on overall profile despite carrying 156 lb.
AI verdict

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Just Forty 40/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 34.00 20/1 open 23.00 20/1 open 23.00 28/1 open 23.00 33/1 open 17.00 40/1 Bet365
2 Painted Wolf 5/1 open 2.75 4/1 open 3.00 7/2 open 2.88 7/2 open 2.88 9/2 open 2.88 5/1 open 2.75 5/1 Bet365
3 That Is Blue 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 5.50 19/5 open 6.00 19/5 open 6.00 5/1 5/1 5/1 Bet365
4 Brave Guest 10/1 open 17.00 9/1 open 19.00 7/1 open 17.00 7/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
5 Ballymoreen 11/10 open 2.75 11/10 open 2.38 10/11 open 2.50 10/11 open 2.50 evn open 2.50 11/10 open 2.50 11/10 Bet365
6 Atreides 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.00 7/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Ballymoreen

Live signal

Ballymoreen owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (58) and market confidence (95). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

11/10 Emma Lavelle Harry Cobden
74% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Painted Wolf

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/1 · Ben Case
✓ Value Signal

Just Forty

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

40/1 · Michael Madgwick
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +22.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
95 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +20.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Speculative
46 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.9 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Dominant
100 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +8.0 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Ballymoreen
61.5 11/10
2 2. Painted Wolf
57.2 5/1
3 6. Atreides
56.8 9/2
4 3. That Is Blue
55.6 5/1
5 4. Brave Guest
50.6 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Ballymoreen
Medium

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 6 · 11-2
11/10
★★★☆☆ SR 105 🐾 —

SR 105 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 8 · 11-2
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 97 🐾 —

SR 97 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 8 · 11-12
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 101 🐾 —

SR 101 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 5 · 11-6
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 102 🐾 —

SR 102 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 11-4
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 84 🐾 —

SR 84 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Ballymoreen
Confidence: Medium

Ballymoreen (SR 105, 11/8) is the standout on ability — top SR in the field at 105, 3lb clear of That Is Blue and 8lb clear of the third-rated Atreides — and carries a very manageable 11-2, identical to Atreides and 10lb less than the top-weights. Emma Lavelle's 18% career strike rate is the best of any trainer here, Harry Cobden's 22% is the standout jockey booking by a wide margin, and connections have not run this horse in 192 days, suggesting a deliberate seasonal return at a Class 5 target. The market has held firm with a 7% move inward (Mkt:in7%), endorsing the form case. The form string 41642 shows ability to win and place at this sort of level, and dropping one class (ClassMv:↓1) into a thin six-runner field at Fontwell gives connections an obvious opportunity. Each-way alternative: Atreides. Main danger: That Is Blue — That Is Blue (SR 102, 11/2) carries only 11-6 for Henrietta Knight, whose 12% strike rate is solid, and a consistent 333 form line suggests a horse that is always competitive and could convert at a venue with a small field if Ballymoreen fails to fire on its first run back in 192 days.

Case against 4 clamped
  • 192-day absence is a significant fitness question — Lavelle's 18% overall strike rate may not hold for horses returning from 6+ month layoffs, and Ballymoreen's form string shows no recent racecourse…
  • Form string 41642 includes two consecutive below-par efforts (6th and 2nd in low-grade company then a 4th); the last completed run was not a win, and the dash indicates an unknown final outing.
  • Painted Wolf (SR 101) has drifted 57% in the market — but that drift flags something amiss in the race dynamic; strong market moves against rivals can reflect inside confidence in an alternative runn…
  • Fontwell's unique figure-of-eight chase layout can catch returning horses cold — no course form on record for Ballymoreen, while Atreides has W1P6 here and course familiarity at this idiosyncratic tr…
Shortlist Ballymoreen, That Is Blue, Atreides
Each-way: Atreides Danger: That Is Blue

🗺 The Course Class 5

2m5f164y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
6 Confirmed runners
Fontwell Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade