Navan 14:45 RESULTED
7 Oct 2026

Wednesday 7 October Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap

Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap · 5f180y

Official Result

Navan Racing Festival Hospitality On Sale Now Nursery Handicap

Confirmed
  1. Winner Celestial Crown (IRE) Seamie Heffernan · J. P. Murtagh
    10/1
  2. 9/4F
  3. Third Docks (IRE)
    5/2
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13:45–17:18 · 8 races

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17:00–20:30 · 8 races

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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 1 week, 2 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Prince Of Peppard silks
Prince Of Peppard
Age 2 · 9-12
96742
68
68
73
2
9-12
★★☆☆☆
—
3/1 7/4 5/2
Prince Of Peppard bounces back from a poor spell with a second last time out, a fourth two starts back, and returns just 16 days later with fitness on his side. He has run over today's trip, and our rating of 73 puts him top of the ten, though he is yet to win in his last five.
AI verdict

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Celestial Crown silks
Celestial Crown
Age 2 · 9-10
278788
66
48
68
2
9-10
★☆☆☆☆
—
11/1 FCST 10/1
Celestial Crown has run over today's trip and returns from 32 days off with our rating of 68 placing her fourth of ten, while a second six starts back shows she has a better run in her; the risk is a string of eighth and seventh finishes, and she is winless in her last six.
AI verdict

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

3
The Drambling Man silks
The Drambling Man
Age 2 · 9-8
696903
64
58
69
2
9-8
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 6/1 9/1
The Drambling Man comes here in his best form, third last time out just 20 days ago, and he has run over today's trip and on this going before. Our rating ranks him second of ten, but he is yet to win in his last six starts and carries 134 lb from stall one.
AI verdict

SR 58 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Santo Parvenue silks
Santo Parvenue
Age 2 · 9-3
44713
59
67
69
2
9-3
★★★☆☆
—
13/2 5/1 13/2
Santo Parvenue makes plenty of appeal, a third last time out, and a winner two starts back, with just nine days since that run and previous experience over today's trip and going. Carrying 129 lb from stall two, the main risk is that he ranks only third of ten on our ratings, though his official rating of 59 sits well below our 69.
AI verdict

SR 67 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Imply silks
Imply
Age 2 · 9-2
065
58
40
41
2
9-2
★★☆☆☆
—
16/1 14/1 16/1
Imply is winless in her last three, finishing a fifth last time out, a sixth two starts back and unplaced before that, which makes her hard to fancy. She is quick back after eight days and has run over today's trip and going, but our figures rank her ninth of ten.
AI verdict

SR 40 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Docks silks
Docks
Age 2 · 9-1
9002
57
66
65
2
9-1
★★★☆☆
—
2/1 7/4 2/1
Docks arrives in better heart after a second last time out, 20 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going before, but he is winless in his last four and unplaced in the two runs before that. Our rating of 65 ranks him fifth of ten from stall 10.
AI verdict

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Lily Bear silks
Lily Bear
Age 2 · 9-0
7005
56
53
59
2
9-0
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 8/1 10/1
Lily Bear showed a bit more when fifth last time out, 20 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going, but she's winless in her last four and was unplaced in the two runs before that. Drawn four and rated 58 by us, she looks mid-pack at best.
AI verdict

SR 53 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Siege Of Tyre silks
Siege Of Tyre
Age 2 · 8-7
0806
48
54
58
2
8-7
★★☆☆☆
—
7/1 FCST 11/2
Winless in her last four, Siege Of Tyre was sixth last time out, 20 days ago, and has run over today's trip and going before, though an eighth three starts back shows the level she's been at. Our rating of 58 sits well above her official 48, but she's ranked only seventh of ten from stall 8.
AI verdict

SR 54 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Mickian Thomas silks
Mickian Thomas
Age 2 · 8-7
060
46
18
36
2
8-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
100/1 50/1 100/1
Mickian Thomas is hard to fancy, unplaced last time out and a sixth two starts back, so he is winless in his last three and rated lowest of the ten on our figures. He has run over today's trip and returns after 22 days, but a rating of 46 offers little encouragement.
AI verdict

SR 18 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 100/1.

10
Rathbran Lady silks
Rathbran Lady
Age 2 · 8-7
007505
46
26
45
2
8-7
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 33/1 25/1
Rathbran Lady is winless in her last six, with a fifth last time out the best of a run that also includes a seventh four starts back, so she is hard to fancy. She has run over today's trip and going and is fresh from nine days ago, but our rating of 45 ranks her eighth of ten.
AI verdict

SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Prince Of Peppard 3/1 open 3.50 10/3 open 2.75 3/1 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 5/2 open 3.75 3/1 open 3.75 10/3 Paddy Power
2 Celestial Crown 11/1 open 15.00 11/1 open 11.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 10/1 open 17.00 11/1 Bet365
3 The Drambling Man 10/1 open 8.50 9/1 open 7.00 9/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 10/1 open 9.50 9/1 open 9.50 10/1 Bet365
4 Santo Parvenue 13/2 open 6.00 7/1 open 6.00 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 13/2 open 6.50 7/1 Paddy Power
5 Imply 16/1 open 15.00 22/1 open 21.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 20/1 open 15.00 22/1 Paddy Power
6 Docks 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 3.25 2/1 open 2.88 2/1 open 2.88 9/4 open 2.88 2/1 open 2.75 9/4 William Hill
7 Lily Bear 10/1 10/1 open 9.00 10/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 10/1 Bet365
8 Siege Of Tyre 7/1 open 10.00 6/1 open 13.00 6/1 6/1 6/1 11/2 7/1 Bet365
9 Mickian Thomas 100/1 open 67.00 110/1 open 67.00 100/1 open 51.00 100/1 open 51.00 100/1 open 81.00 100/1 open 81.00 110/1 Paddy Power
10 Rathbran Lady 33/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 34.00 28/1 open 51.00 28/1 open 51.00 33/1 open 51.00 28/1 open 51.00 33/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Prince Of Peppard

Speculative

Prince Of Peppard owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

3/1 J. P. Murtagh Ben Coen
74% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Docks

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

2/1 · Paul W Flynn
✓ Value Signal

Mickian Thomas

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

100/1 · Rory Anthony Devine
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +14.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
86 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.0 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
32 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.2 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +3.8 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.3 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
57 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.5 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 1. Prince Of Peppard
52.1 3/1
2 6. Docks
47.9 2/1
3 4. Santo Parvenue
46.7 13/2
4 3. The Drambling Man
44.3 10/1
5 2. Celestial Crown
42.7 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Docks
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

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The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

6
Age 2 · 9-1
2/1
★★★☆☆ SR 66 🐾 —

SR 66 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 2 · 9-12
3/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 68 🐾 —

SR 68 suggests ability but 10/3 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Age 2 · 9-3
13/2
★★★☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Age 2 · 8-7
7/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 54 🐾 —

SR 54 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

3
Age 2 · 9-8
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 58 🐾 —

SR 58 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 2 · 9-0
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 53 🐾 —

SR 53 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Age 2 · 9-10
11/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 48 🐾 —

SR 48 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

5
Age 2 · 9-2
16/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 40 🐾 —

SR 40 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Docks
Confidence: Speculative

Docks (SR:66, 2/1) carries the lightest weight among the top-rated trio at 9-1, giving it a clear lbs advantage over Prince Of Peppard (9-12) and Santo Parvenue (9-3), while matching Prince Of Peppard's SR of 66-67 range. The form string 9002 shows a very recent placed effort (rightmost digit '2') suggesting a horse arriving in form off a 20-day break, and trainer Paul Flynn (9%, 622 runners) with Chris Hayes (10%, 1,670 runners) is a competent combination. Although GoingFit:- is a concern on this Good ground, it remains the market leader at 2/1 — and crucially, none of the other leading contenders show convincingly better going credentials. The weight advantage at the same SR level makes Docks the most attractive profile in the field. Each-way alternative: Siege Of Tyre. Main danger: Prince Of Peppard — Prince Of Peppard holds the joint-highest SR in the field (68) under the Murtagh/Coen combination — Ireland's most powerful nursery yard — and despite drifting 14%, the stable's overall quality means it cannot be dismissed if the 9-12 weight burden proves less of a burden than expected on Good ground.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Docks' form string 9002 includes two last-place finishes (the '00'), suggesting the single placed effort is isolated and the horse has shown real inconsistency rather than progressive form.
  • GoingFit:- means no recorded going preference data for Good ground at Navan today — the primary analyst acknowledges this unknown but dismisses it, making the 2/1 market price carry unquantified grou…
  • Santo Parvenue (SR:67, MarkMv:+12) is showing a significant positive market move of 12 points and ran just 9 days ago, suggesting a trainer confident enough to run back quickly with a horse in peak c…
  • Trainer Paul Flynn's 9% strike rate and Chris Hayes' 10% rate are modest, and no stable form indicator (Stable flag) is present for Docks, unlike Prince Of Peppard whose Murtagh yard shows Stable:1,…
Shortlist Docks, Prince Of Peppard, Santo Parvenue, Siege Of Tyre
Each-way: Siege Of Tyre Danger: Prince Of Peppard

🗺 The Course Race conditions

5f180y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Navan Track and setting