M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle · 2m4f0y
SR 89 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 120 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 110 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 96 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 93 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
SR 114 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Favourable weight of 10-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 96 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 108 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 87 suggests ability but 25/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 85 suggests ability but 50/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Moon Mission | — | 14/1 | — | — | — | — | 14/1 Paddy Power |
| 1 Tullyhill | 50/1 open 29.00 | 50/1 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 40/1 | 50/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Stede Bonnet | 8/1 open 17.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 8/1 open 13.00 | 8/1 open 13.00 | 17/2 open 13.00 | 15/2 open 13.00 | 17/2 William Hill |
| 3 Londonofficecallin | 11/1 open 7.50 | 14/1 open 11.00 | 14/1 open 9.50 | 14/1 open 9.50 | 12/1 open 9.50 | 12/1 open 9.50 | 14/1 Paddy Power |
| 4 Sageborough | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 18/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Feud | 10/1 open 17.00 | 11/1 open 11.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 open 13.00 | 10/1 open 13.00 | 10/1 open 13.00 | 11/1 Paddy Power |
| 6 Ifiwerearichman | 7/1 open 9.00 | 7/1 open 13.00 | 7/1 open 10.00 | 7/1 open 10.00 | 13/2 open 10.00 | 7/1 open 10.00 | 7/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Matt Connor | 9/1 | 10/1 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 Paddy Power |
| 8 Livio | 9/4 open 4.00 | 2/1 open 4.00 | 15/8 open 3.75 | 15/8 open 3.75 | 7/4 open 3.75 | 15/8 open 3.75 | 9/4 Bet365 |
| 9 Avalo | 9/1 open 9.00 | 12/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 11/1 open 8.00 | 10/1 open 8.00 | 10/1 open 8.00 | 12/1 Paddy Power |
| 10 Sequoiaspirit | 25/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 25/1 open 23.00 | 22/1 | 25/1 Bet365 |
| 11 Watch The Weather | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 open 19.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 15.00 | 16/1 open 13.00 | 16/1 Bet365 |
| 12 Elusive Ogie | 8/1 open 8.50 | 13/2 open 8.50 | 7/1 | 7/1 | 8/1 open 8.00 | 7/1 open 7.50 | 8/1 Bet365 |
| 13 Luck Between Us | 10/1 open 10.00 | 10/1 open 12.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.00 | 10/1 open 9.50 | 10/1 open 9.50 | 10/1 Bet365 |
| 14 Give Him A Chance | 22/1 open 21.00 | 22/1 open 15.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 20/1 open 17.00 | 22/1 Bet365 |
| 15 Serienmond | 9/1 open 13.00 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 9/1 open 8.00 | 9/1 open 8.00 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 8/1 open 7.50 | 9/1 Bet365 |
| 17 Young Churchill | 50/1 open 34.00 | 50/1 open 67.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 50/1 open 41.00 | 40/1 | 50/1 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Livio owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (67) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalFavourable weight of 10-8 gives a real edge in this handicap.
SR 114 suggests ability but 15/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 120 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 116 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 111 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 103 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 93 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
SR 115 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
SR 110 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 108 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
SR 96 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Livio (SR:121, 11/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and carries a featherweight 10-8 relative to his ability — a meaningful lbs edge over Stede Bonnet (SR:120, 10-13) who is rated almost identically but carries 5lb more. The Mullins/Townend combination is the most potent in the race by a considerable margin: Mullins fires at 26% career strike rate and Townend at 38%, and the market has shortened 9% since opening, suggesting quiet confidence from connections. The form line 1/301 shows a recent win and the horse is lightly raced at five, pointing to upside. The only reservation is the DistFit:? and GoingFit:? flags — Livio is relatively unexposed at this trip and going combination — but that inexperience is offset by the trainer's ability to have horses spot-on for a target race. Each-way alternative: Stede Bonnet. Main danger: Stede Bonnet — Stede Bonnet (SR:120, 8/1) has steamed in 37% in the market — the biggest move in the race — carries proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ credentials that Livio currently lacks, and Elliott at 18% sends horses to win, not to make up numbers.