Southwell (AW) 17:20 RESULTED
Class 4 26 Sep 2026

Saturday 26 September Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I) · 4f215y

Official Result

Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)

Confirmed
  1. Winner Elyam (GB) Darragh Keenan · Michael Herrington
    6/4F
  2. 7/2
  3. 11/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

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14:45–18:05 · 7 races

Southwell (AW)

16:10–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 10 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 6 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Layla Liz silks
Layla Liz
Age 4 · 10-0
2-1008
87
60
87
4
10-0
★★☆☆☆
—
33/1 16/1 33/1
Layla Liz has run over today's trip and going, and a win four starts back shows she can find the line, but three poor efforts since — including eighth last time out — make her current form hard to trust despite carrying 140 lb from stall 3 on a quick 14-day turnaround.
AI verdict

SR 60 suggests ability but 28/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Ziggy's Triton silks
Ziggy's Triton
Age 4 · 9-13
071009
86
91
93
4
9-13
★★★☆☆
—
9/2
Ziggy's Triton landed a win four starts back and has experience over today's trip and conditions, with a 93 rating that marks him as the top-ranked runner in the field; the risk is that his last three outings have all disappointed.
AI verdict

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Bassenthwaite silks
Bassenthwaite
Age 3 · 9-12
41-090
86
79
87
3
9-12
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 11/1 17/2
Bassenthwaite has managed just one win in his last five starts, with two unplaced efforts in his most recent outings, and he ranks eighth of ten on our figures; he has run over today's distance and going before, but at 63 days between runs he faces questions on freshness too.
AI verdict

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

4
Elyam silks
Elyam
Age 4 · 9-11
353/1
84
88
74
4
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
6/4 FCST 3/2
Ranked bottom of the field on our figures and carrying a hefty 137 lb from stall 10, Elyam is hard to fancy despite a win last time out; he has run over today's trip and going before, but our rating trails his official mark significantly.
AI verdict

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Spring Is Sprung silks
Spring Is Sprung
Age 7 · 9-11
743203
84
90
91
7
9-11
★★★☆☆
—
6/1 7/2 6/1
Spring Is Sprung has shown consistent placing ability in recent starts, finishing third last time out and second three starts back, and he has experience of today's trip and going; the main risk is that he remains yet to win in his last six starts.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Tees Spirit silks
Tees Spirit
Age 8 · 9-10
00800-
83
60
91
8
9-10
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 FCST 28/1
Tees Spirit has run over today's trip and conditions before, and his rating of 91 puts him right in contention from stall six, but winless in his last five starts and returning after a year off the track, he faces a stiff ask to hit form immediately.
AI verdict

SR 60 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.

7
Paddy's Day silks
Paddy's Day
Age 6 · 9-9
727396
82
86
88
6
9-9
★★★☆☆
—
9/2 11/2 9/2
Paddy's Day arrives on the back of a sixth last time out and remains winless in his last six starts, though a third three starts back shows he can hit the frame; distance and going experience help, but consistency is the concern here at 135 lb from stall four.
AI verdict

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

8
Wateen silks
Wateen
Age 3 · 9-7
430-66
81
56
79
3
9-7
★★☆☆☆
—
50/1 28/1 50/1
SR 56 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
AI verdict

SR 56 suggests ability but 40/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

9
Noble Vow silks
Noble Vow
Age 3 · 9-6
311000
80
69
88
3
9-6
★★☆☆☆
—
28/1 16/1 25/1
Noble Vow landed back-to-back wins four and five starts back, and with experience over today's trip and going, the conditions suit; three unplaced efforts since give slight pause, but he returns quickly at just seven days and the 132 lb burden is manageable for a gelding rated 88 on our figures.
AI verdict

SR 69 suggests ability but 20/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Juan Les Pins silks
Juan Les Pins
Age 9 · 9-3
132906
76
78
87
9
9-3
★★★☆☆
—
11/1 17/2 9/1
SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
AI verdict

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Layla Liz 33/1 open 19.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 open 17.00 33/1 Bet365
2 Ziggy's Triton 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 open 6.00 9/2 Bet365
3 Bassenthwaite 10/1 open 12.00 10/1 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 17/2 open 13.00 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 open 13.00 10/1 Bet365
4 Elyam 6/4 13/8 open 2.50 13/8 open 2.50 13/8 open 2.50 13/8 open 2.50 6/4 13/8 Paddy Power
5 Spring Is Sprung 6/1 open 5.00 7/1 open 5.00 6/1 open 4.50 6/1 open 4.50 7/1 open 4.50 13/2 open 4.50 7/1 Paddy Power
6 Tees Spirit 33/1 open 29.00 33/1 33/1 33/1 33/1 28/1 open 34.00 33/1 Bet365
7 Paddy's Day 9/2 open 8.50 9/2 open 8.50 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 7.00 9/2 open 6.50 9/2 Bet365
8 Wateen 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 34.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 open 29.00 50/1 Bet365
9 Noble Vow 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 28/1 open 17.00 25/1 open 17.00 28/1 Bet365
10 Juan Les Pins 11/1 open 9.50 9/1 10/1 open 10.00 10/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 10.00 11/1 open 10.00 11/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Ziggy's Triton

Speculative

Ziggy's Triton owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (51) and market confidence (79). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/2 David O'Meara Daniel Muscutt
64% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Spring Is Sprung

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

6/1 · Paul Midgley
✓ Value Signal

Tees Spirit

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

33/1 · Adrian Nicholls
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
51 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.2 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
79 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.4 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.0 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Speculative
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.7 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +5.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
53 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.3 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 2. Ziggy's Triton
56.8 9/2
2 5. Spring Is Sprung
56.6 6/1
3 7. Paddy's Day
55.3 9/2
4 4. Elyam
55.2 6/4
5 3. Bassenthwaite
51.2 10/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Ziggy's Triton
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

4
Age 4 · 9-11
6/4
★★★☆☆ SR 88 🐾 —

SR 88 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-13
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 91 🐾 —

SR 91 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Age 6 · 9-9
9/2
★★★☆☆ SR 86 🐾 —

SR 86 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 7 · 9-11
6/1
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾 —

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 3 · 9-12
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 79 🐾 —

SR 79 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

10
Age 9 · 9-3
11/1
★★★☆☆ SR 78 🐾 —

SR 78 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Ziggy's Triton
Confidence: Speculative

Ziggy's Triton (SR:91, 9/2) leads the field on ability and arrives dropping two class tiers, which is the most significant positive class move in the race. The market has shortened 8% — meaningful support given the field — and the Course:W2P6 record at Southwell is a standout credential in a specialist all-weather venue where track familiarity matters. The 9-13 weight is manageable and Daniel Muscutt's 14% career strike rate gives this combination a strong connections profile. The GoingFit:~ is the only soft note, but good ground is close enough to his winning conditions that it should not inconvenience him. Each-way alternative: Paddy's Day. Main danger: Elyam — Elyam (SR:88, 13/8) has a Course:W1P1 record at Southwell and a Form:353/1 showing a recent win, and although the MarkMv:+9 is a concern and the GoingFit:? adds uncertainty, if the going suits it has the ability to land this from the front at a penalty mark.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Form reads 071009 — the horse has finished out of the places in 4 of its last 6 starts, including a 9th last time out, suggesting it is not firing consistently enough to be trusted at 9/2.
  • GoingFit:p (polytrack preference) at a Fibresand venue like Southwell is a genuine surface doubt — horses that prefer polytrack often underperform on Fibresand's deeper, slower surface.
  • 38-day absence is a concern: O'Meara runners returning after 5+ weeks without a racecourse run show noticeably lower strike rates, and there is no recent comeback evidence here.
  • Despite the market move in, 9/2 still makes it second-longest of the serious contenders; Elyam (13/8, MarkMv:+9, Course:W1P1) has received far stronger market confidence and a significant official ma…
Shortlist Ziggy's Triton, Spring Is Sprung, Elyam, Paddy's Day
Each-way: Paddy's Day Danger: Elyam

🗺 The Course Class 4

4f215y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
10 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade