Southwell (AW) 18:30 RESULTED
Class 5 26 Sep 2026

Saturday 26 September Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap Stakes

Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap Stakes · 1m4f15y

Official Result

Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap Stakes

Confirmed
  1. Winner Patrol (IRE) Jack Callan · Dylan Cunha
    15/8F
  2. 16/1
  3. 5/1
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Big race Sat 17 Oct Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing) Ascot · 16:35

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Market Rasen

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Listowel

14:45–18:05 · 7 races

Southwell (AW)

16:10–20:30 · 9 races

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Settled
  • 8 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 weeks, 6 days ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Patrol silks
Patrol
Age 4 · 10-0
436323
75
87
86
4
10-0
★★★☆☆
—
11/4 3/1 9/4
Patrol has been a model of consistency in recent starts, finishing third last time out and second two starts back, and he has experience of today's trip and conditions. Carrying 140 lb, he remains winless in his last six starts, but his rating of 86 marks him as the one to beat here.
AI verdict

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Flightofthephoenix silks
Flightofthephoenix
Age 4 · 9-12
772116
73
80
77
4
9-12
★★★☆☆
—
5/1 5/1 4/1
Flightofthephoenix showed sharp form when winning back-to-back two and three starts back, but her last outing was a disappointing sixth, and 138 lb is no gimme; has run over today's trip and going, which at least removes two unknowns.
AI verdict

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Dream Harder silks
Dream Harder
Age 7 · 9-12
-68147
73
59
84
7
9-12
★☆☆☆☆
—
25/1 14/1 16/1
Dream Harder won three starts back and returns on a quick enough turnaround of 22 days, bringing both distance and going experience to the table; the risk is that his last two outings — fourth and then seventh — suggest he needs to recapture that earlier spark.
AI verdict

SR 59 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 22/1.

4
Bondi silks
Bondi
Age 4 · 9-9
6186-7
70
67
74
4
9-9
★★☆☆☆
—
10/1 9/1 13/2
Winless in his last three starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, Bondi makes little appeal here, though he has run over today's trip and going before and a return to form cannot be entirely ruled out after 41 days off.
AI verdict

SR 67 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Madjid silks
Madjid
Age 3 · 9-7
957112
75
90
80
3
9-7
★★★☆☆
—
9/4 3/2 7/4
Madjid arrives on the back of back-to-back wins, and a runner-up effort last time out keeps him in fine fettle after 24 days off; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 133 lb is the chief weight to overcome.
AI verdict

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Roker Roar silks
Roker Roar
Age 3 · 9-5
4-3322
73
81
76
3
9-5
★★★☆☆
—
11/2 7/2 9/2
Roker Roar has been consistently placed — second two starts back and third three starts back — yet remains yet to win in his last five starts, and while he has run over today's trip and going before, 131 lb is a stern burden for a horse rated 73 officially.
AI verdict

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

7
Molo Del Palazzo silks
Molo Del Palazzo
Age 3 · 9-5
632647
73
74
77
3
9-5
★★☆☆☆
—
11/1 10/1 15/2
Winless in her last six starts, Molo Del Palazzo nonetheless showed a second four starts back and a third five starts back, suggesting she retains the ability to get competitive; back quickly after just 15 days and with going experience in her favour, the risk is that her latest seventh suggests current form may be patchy.
AI verdict

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
League of Justice silks
League of Justice
Age 3 · 9-4
6437
72
47
63
3
9-4
★☆☆☆☆
—
33/1 40/1 16/1
Winless in his last four starts and ranked bottom of this field on our figures, League of Justice faces a stiff ask here, though he has run over today's going before and returns on a brisk 11-day turnaround suggesting connections are keen.
AI verdict

SR 47 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 50/1.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Patrol 11/4 open 4.00 5/2 open 4.33 9/4 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 11/4 open 4.33 11/4 Bet365
2 Flightofthephoenix 5/1 5/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 4/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 Bet365
3 Dream Harder 25/1 open 15.00 28/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 16/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 open 19.00 28/1 Paddy Power
4 Bondi 10/1 open 13.00 9/1 13/2 open 11.00 13/2 open 11.00 9/1 open 11.00 8/1 open 11.00 10/1 Bet365
5 Madjid 9/4 2/1 open 2.50 7/4 open 2.63 7/4 open 2.63 85/40 open 2.63 2/1 open 2.63 9/4 Bet365
6 Roker Roar 11/2 open 4.50 6/1 open 5.00 9/2 open 4.50 9/2 open 4.50 6/1 open 4.50 11/2 open 4.50 6/1 Paddy Power
7 Molo Del Palazzo 11/1 open 11.00 11/1 open 13.00 15/2 open 11.00 15/2 open 11.00 11/1 11/1 11/1 Bet365
8 League of Justice 33/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 41.00 16/1 open 41.00 16/1 open 41.00 20/1 open 41.00 25/1 open 41.00 33/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Madjid

Speculative

Madjid owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (50) and market confidence (90). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

9/4 Harry Charlton Daniel Muscutt
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Patrol

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

11/4 · Dylan Cunha
✓ Value Signal

Dream Harder

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

25/1 · Mark Loughnane
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Speculative
50 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +19.0 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Dominant
90 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +19.7 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.4 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.0 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
58 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.7 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 5. Madjid
57.0 9/4
2 1. Patrol
56.2 11/4
3 6. Roker Roar
52.9 11/2
4 2. Flightofthephoenix
52.8 5/1
5 7. Molo Del Palazzo
47.4 11/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Patrol
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

★ Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

5
Age 3 · 9-7
9/4
★★★☆☆ SR 90 🐾 —

SR 90 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

1
Age 4 · 10-0
11/4
★★★☆☆ SR 87 🐾 —

SR 87 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Age 4 · 9-12
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 80 🐾 —

SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 3 · 9-5
11/2
★★★☆☆ SR 81 🐾 —

SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-9
10/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 67 🐾 —

SR 67 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 3 · 9-5
11/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 74 🐾 —

SR 74 suggests ability but 9/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Patrol
Confidence: Speculative

Patrol (SR 87, 5/2) is the standout on multiple converging signals. The market has steamed in 18% — the most decisive market move in this field — endorsing what the data already shows: Course:W2P4 at Southwell (a genuine course specialist), DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ confirming that today's conditions are squarely in his wheelhouse, and a ClassMv:= meaning no step into the unknown. Carrying 10-0 is the heaviest weight in the field, but his SR 87 is the joint-highest and the weight edge over Madjid (SR 90, 9-7) is only 7lb — manageable given Patrol's Southwell expertise versus Madjid's GoingFit:- and DistFit:? on a debut at 1m4f. Trainer Dylan Cunha (13%) and Jack Callan (13%) represent a competent, in-form pairing for this grade, and the MarkMv:= means he runs off the exact same mark he last competed at, with no punitive rise to overcome. Each-way alternative: Madjid. Main danger: Madjid — Madjid (SR 90, 9/4) is the highest-rated horse in the field and arrives on a hot recent sequence of 957112, with trainer Harry Charlton operating at a solid 16% strike rate — if he handles the going and the step up to 1m4f (both marked as unknowns), his raw ability could overpower the favourite.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Patrol's form string (436323) shows no win in 6 runs — he places but doesn't convert, and at 5/2 he must win not just hit the frame.
  • Madjid (SR 90, 9/4) holds a 3-point SR superiority, is trained by the highest win% handler in the field (Charlton 16%), and his recent form (957112) shows two consecutive wins with clear upward traje…
  • Patrol carries top weight of 10-0, giving away 7lb to Madjid — in a handicap at 1m4f on a flat AW track where weight grinding matters, this scale of concession to the highest-rated rival is a materia…
  • Roker Roar (Balding 18%, SR 81) is drifting but represents the stable with the best overall strike rate here and gives Patrol 9lb — a live each-way threat that complicates a winning margin for Patrol.
Shortlist Patrol, Madjid, Roker Roar, Flightofthephoenix
Each-way: Madjid Danger: Madjid

🗺 The Course Class 5

1m4f15y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
8 Confirmed runners
Southwell (AW) Track and setting
Class 5 Race grade