Down Royal 16:30 RESULTED
28 Aug 2026

Last Friday Coca-Cola HBC Ireland And Northern Ireland 3-Y-O Hurdle

Coca-Cola HBC Ireland And Northern Ireland 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m1f87y

Official Result

Coca-Cola HBC Ireland And Northern Ireland 3-Y-O Hurdle

Confirmed
  1. Winner Nicky Larson (FR) Sean Flanagan · Paul Nolan
    8/13F
  2. 11/2
  3. 7/2
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Settled
  • 9 declared
  • 0 picked
Saturday Draw Updated 2 days, 6 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Nicky Larson silks
Nicky Larson
Age 3 · 11-4
31
76
100
3
11-4
SP
Nicky Larson arrives on the back of a win last time out and has run over today's trip, giving him a solid profile at the head of the weights on 158 lb; 18 days between runs is plenty fresh enough to go again.
AI verdict

SR 76 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

2
Camp Verde silks
Camp Verde
Age 3 · 10-12
0U
64
3
10-12
SP
Unexposed and open to improvement, Camp Verde has been yet to win in his last two starts — including an unseating — but returns quickly after just eight days and, lightly raced, there is plenty more to learn about him.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

3
Fay Og silks
Fay Og
Age 3 · 10-12
68
3
10-12
SP
Unexposed and open to improvement on debut, Fay Og has had time to develop over 102 days away and carries 152 lb on his first start — connections will be hoping he can make an immediate impact.
AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

4
Nod Of Approval silks
Nod Of Approval
Age 3 · 10-12
7
57
83
3
10-12
SP
Nod Of Approval catches the eye on his profile here, carrying 152 lb on a competitive mark and returning on a lively 18-day turnaround with our rating of 83 placing him third in the field; the risk is that he is yet to score in recent starts, that sole effort a seventh.
AI verdict

SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

5
Point Star silks
Point Star
Age 3 · 10-12
68
3
10-12
SP
Unexposed on debut, Point Star is a complete unknown but lightly raced profiles like his often leave room for significant improvement; carrying 152 lb on his first start, he is yet to score but there is plenty to learn about him here.
AI verdict

SR 68 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

6
Moon Aura silks
Moon Aura
Age 3 · 10-5
72
3
10-5
SP
Unraced and therefore unexposed, Moon Aura steps into the unknown on debut after 59 days off the track, carrying 145 lb, with plenty of potential still to be uncovered.
AI verdict

SR 72 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

7
No Bother Aoife silks
No Bother Aoife
Age 3 · 10-5
43
71
90
3
10-5
SP
Placed third last time out and fourth two starts back, No Bother Aoife arrives fit on an 18-day turnaround with distance experience to call on and a rating of 90 that marks her out as a leading threat; the risk is she remains yet to win in recent starts.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

8
Sands Castle silks
Sands Castle
Age 3 · 10-5
6
58
79
3
10-5
SP
Sands Castle has been off for just 18 days and returns at a workable weight of 145 lb, with our rating of 79 marking her as a genuine player in this field; the main concern is that she heads here winless from her last start and must find improvement.
AI verdict

SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at .

9
Swift Charm silks
Swift Charm
Age 3 · 10-5
-
75
3
10-5
SP
Unexposed and open to improvement on debut, Swift Charm steps into the spotlight here carrying 145 lb after a 55-day absence, yet to score but with plenty still to find out about her.
AI verdict

SR 75 suggests ability but reflects a stiff ask in this field.

No bookmaker prices recorded yet for this race. Prices land after the first odds sync.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Fay Og

Speculative

Fay Og owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (38) and market confidence (49). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

N/A W R Crawford J J Slevin
62% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Moon Aura

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

N/A · C A McBratney
✓ Value Signal

Nicky Larson

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

N/A · Paul Nolan
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

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Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
38 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +14.4 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence Speculative
49 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +10.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
39 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +4.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Live signal
64 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +6.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Live signal
78 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +7.8 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Low conviction
40 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +3.2 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 3. Fay Og
49.5 N/A
2 6. Moon Aura
49.4 N/A
3 1. Nicky Larson
49.0 N/A
4 5. Point Star
48.6 N/A
5 9. Swift Charm
48.3 N/A
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Nicky Larson
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Nicky Larson
Confidence: Speculative

Nicky Larson (SR:76) is the highest-rated horse in the field and the only runner with two hurdle starts under his belt, showing a 3-1 form line that demonstrates genuine ability and consistency. He carries top-weight of 11-4 but the SR advantage over the next best (Swift Charm SR:75) is meaningful in a field this modest, and Paul Nolan at 9% with Sean Flanagan is a competent combination. All runners share identical DistFit:? and GoingFit:? so no horse holds a proven edge there, but Nicky Larson's actual race experience (two runs, placed both times) over horses who are either unraced under Rules or have a single poor run gives him a clear form edge in a 3YO novice hurdle at this level. Each-way alternative: Swift Charm. Main danger: Swift Charm — Swift Charm (SR:75) matches Nicky Larson at the top of the SR table, carries a favourable 10-5 versus 11-4, and Crawford's yard has clearly targeted this race as a suitable debut for a stable companion — the dual headgear (ht) application suggests connections believe they need to sharpen the horse up and are serious about a big run first time out.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Nicky Larson's form reads 3-1 (third then first), but a single win does not establish him as a reliable front-runner — his third-place finish shows he can be beaten, and his sole win may flatter the…
  • Paul Nolan's trainer strike rate of 9% from 193 runners is modest, and Sean Flanagan's 8% from 160 rides is similarly uninspiring — this combination rarely delivers at better than single-figure conve…
  • Top weight of 11-4 versus rivals on 10-12 or 10-5 is a concrete 6-13lb swing in a 3YO novice hurdle where fitness and jumping ability often outweigh ratings — the weight burden is real and measurable.
  • Swift Charm (SR:75) is only 1 point behind on ratings, is fresher on 55 days since last run versus 18 for Nicky Larson, and carries 13lb less weight — a significant physical advantage for a horse who…
Shortlist Nicky Larson, Swift Charm, No Bother Aoife
Each-way: Swift Charm Danger: Swift Charm

🗺 The Course Race conditions

2m1f87y Distance to cover
Good to Firm Expected going
9 Confirmed runners
Down Royal Track and setting