Thirsk 17:13 28 Aug 2026
Class 4 28 Aug 2026

Last Friday Applebridge Group Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)

Applebridge Group Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) · 1m6f0y

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Voting open
  • 7 declared
  • 0 picked
AI rates Sudu Speculative Saturday Draw Join free to vote Updated 2 days, 21 hours ago
No.
Horse
Form
Jockey / Trainer
OR
SR?
RPR/OR
Age
Wgt
AI
Votes
Odds
Pick
Comment
1
Pinatique silks
Pinatique
Age 4 · 10-2
6960-4
85
76
83
4
10-2
5/2 5/4 5/2
Winless in her last five starts, Pinatique at least returns on a quick 13-day turnaround in fair condition, and her fourth last time out offers a shade of encouragement, though a rating of 83 leaves her with ground to make up on the principals.
AI verdict

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

2
Sax Appeal silks
Sax Appeal
Age 6 · 10-1
365333
84
77
87
6
10-1
12/1 7/1 12/1
Sax Appeal has been consistently placed, finishing third in three of his last four completed starts, and has run over today's distance and going before, giving him solid claims here; fifty-four days off is worth noting, though his profile makes him our preferred pick at 141 lb.
AI verdict

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Sudu silks
Sudu
Age 4 · 10-0
5418-6
83
84
83
4
10-0
3/1 3/1 11/4
Sudu landed a win three starts back and returns after a 21-day break in good order, with experience of today's going working in his favour; the risk is that his last two outings have both been well below that winning level.
AI verdict

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Talismans Time silks
Talismans Time
Age 4 · 9-10
0-P354
79
80
86
4
9-10
4/1
Talismans Time shaped with promise when third three starts back and returns here on a retrieval mission just 17 days later, having run over today's trip and going before; the main concern is that he remains winless in recent starts and must bounce back from two below-par efforts.
AI verdict

SR 80 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

5
Mick Collins silks
Mick Collins
Age 5 · 9-9
34/1-7
78
71
90
5
9-9
14/1 12/1 11/1
Mick Collins bolsters his claims with a win two starts back and goes on today's going, while our rating of 90 puts him clear at the head of this field; the concern is that seventh last time out leaves him needing to bounce back sharply.
AI verdict

SR 71 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

6
Hamadhan silks
Hamadhan
Age 4 · 9-6
63-753
75
64
80
4
9-6
9/1 14/1 8/1
Winless in his last five starts and ranked sixth of seven on our figures, Hamadhan is hard to fancy at the weights carrying 132 lb after a 90-day absence, though he has run over today's going before and his third last time out shows he can find the frame.
AI verdict

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

7
Arrange silks
Arrange
Age 8 · 8-13
-06223
68
82
80
8
8-13
5/1 9/2 5/1
Winless in her last five starts, Arrange has placed three times in that sequence — second two starts back and third last time out — but ranked last on our figures here, she faces a stiff task at the weights carrying 125 lb despite the experience of today's trip and going in her favour.
AI verdict

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

Horse Bet365 Paddy Power Coral Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred Best
1 Pinatique 5/2 open 2.50 11/4 open 2.50 11/4 open 2.25 11/4 open 2.25 11/4 open 2.25 11/4 open 2.25 11/4 Paddy Power
2 Sax Appeal 12/1 open 8.00 14/1 open 12.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 12/1 open 9.00 14/1 Paddy Power
3 Sudu 3/1 open 4.33 3/1 3/1 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.00 3/1 open 5.00 11/4 open 5.00 3/1 Bet365
4 Talismans Time 4/1 open 7.50 4/1 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 open 5.50 4/1 Bet365
5 Mick Collins 14/1 open 23.00 11/1 open 19.00 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 14/1 Bet365
6 Hamadhan 9/1 open 19.00 9/1 open 15.00 17/2 open 21.00 17/2 open 21.00 9/1 open 21.00 8/1 open 21.00 9/1 Bet365
7 Arrange 5/1 open 5.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 open 6.50 5/1 Bet365

Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.

Chamber Verdict

Balanced lens

Talismans Time

Speculative

Talismans Time owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (44) and market confidence (82). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.

4/1 Edward Bethell Cian Horgan(5)
66% Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner

Pinatique

Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.

5/2 · Sir Mark Prescott Bt
✓ Value Signal

Mick Collins

Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.

14/1 · Martin Todhunter
◈ Chamber Memory

Balanced

Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.

Change lens →
Chamber Signals

How the chamber read the race

Why this horse Live cards showing how the active lens weighted each signal for this outcome.
Speed rating Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 38% +16.9 pts

Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.

Market confidence High conviction
82 / 100
⚖ Weight 22% +17.9 pts

Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.

Pace profile Low conviction
37 / 100
⚖ Weight 12% +3.8 pts

How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.

Value edge Low conviction
44 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.4 pts

Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.

Chaos factor Dominant
47 / 100
⚖ Weight 10% +4.7 pts

Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.

Favourite bias Speculative
54 / 100
⚖ Weight 8% +4.4 pts

Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.

Top chamber signals Top 5 ranked by the active lens.
1 4. Talismans Time
53.7 4/1
2 1. Pinatique
52.7 5/2
3 3. Sudu
51.3 3/1
4 7. Arrange
50.2 5/1
5 6. Hamadhan
47.2 9/1
YOUR DECISION

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🤖 AI view
Sudu
Speculative

When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.

Read the AI breakdown →
The Race Engine combines three independent signals to help you see the race clearly
📊
SR

Saturday Rating

Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.

Ability
🤖
★★★★★

AI Stars

A race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.

Today's Chance
🐾
0

Cub Votes

One Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.

Community Signal

Market Movers Horses at 20/1 or shorter

1
Age 4 · 10-2
5/2
★★★☆☆ SR 76 🐾

SR 76 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

3
Age 4 · 10-0
3/1
★★★☆☆ SR 84 🐾

SR 84 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

4
Age 4 · 9-10
4/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 80 🐾

SR 80 suggests ability but 7/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

7
Age 8 · 8-13
5/1
★★★☆☆ SR 82 🐾

SR 82 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

6
Age 4 · 9-6
9/1
★☆☆☆☆ SR 64 🐾

SR 64 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.

2
Age 6 · 10-1
12/1
★★★☆☆ SR 77 🐾

SR 77 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.

5
Age 5 · 9-9
14/1
★★☆☆☆ SR 71 🐾

SR 71 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.

STEAMERS

Race Steamers

What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.

🤖AI Intelligence Saturday Racing's analytical engine

Saturday Racing AI
Sudu
Confidence: Speculative

Sudu (SR:84, 10/3) is the highest-rated horse in the field and has shortened 9% in the market, suggesting stable confidence despite a MarkMv:+8 penalty — connections clearly believe the horse is well in hand. Roger Varian's 20% strike rate is the joint-best in the race alongside Prescott, and Ray Dawson (16% career strike rate) is a capable booking. The ClassMv:↓1 drop in grade makes the higher mark more manageable, and with only 10-0 to carry versus the market-drifting Pinatique on 10-2, Sudu has a weight advantage over the most obvious rival. The form string 5418-6 includes a win at what appears to be a competitive level and recent activity (21 days) keeps the horse in good order. Each-way alternative: Talismans Time. Main danger: Talismans Time — Talismans Time (SR:80, 7/2) has steamed in 22% in the market — the biggest positive move in the race — carries a favourable 9-10, has a MarkMv:-1 drop, and Edward Bethell (16% strike rate) is booking an apprentice which often signals a horse fancied to do the work itself; the market move is hard to ignore.

Case against 4 clamped
  • Sudu's form string 5418-6 shows a last-place finish most recently — that '6' is the latest run and a significant backwards step from the win, raising doubts about current form.
  • A MarkMv:+8 penalty means Sudu races off a significantly higher mark than when winning; the class drop (↓1) may not be enough to compensate for carrying 8lbs more than that winning run.
  • Talismans Time (7/2) has shortened 22% in the market — a sharper move than Sudu's 9% — suggesting market confidence may be flowing toward that rival rather than the primary pick.
  • Sax Appeal has a course win/place record (W0P2) at Thirsk and races off a MarkMv:-2, giving that rival a more favourable handicap position on a track where course form demonstrably matters.
Shortlist Sudu, Talismans Time, Arrange
Each-way: Talismans Time Danger: Talismans Time

🗺 The Course Class 4

1m6f0y Distance to cover
Good Expected going
7 Confirmed runners
Thirsk Track and setting
Class 4 Race grade