Winless in his last five starts, Jimmy Mark does at least bring experience of today's trip and going, and a return to form is not out of the question given he finished second two starts back; however, a seventh last time out is harder to overlook.
Form last 65-2527
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
58SR57RPR55OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Backer Bilk arrives here fit on a 13-day turnaround, has run over today's trip and going, and our rating of 59 puts him ahead of his official mark, suggesting some unexploited ability; the concern is that he has been winless in his last five starts, with those recent eighths hard to ignore.
Form last 6235-88
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR59RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Hove Ranger won last time out and was third two starts back, so recent form reads well, though a fifth three starts back tempers enthusiasm; experience over today's trip and going helps, but 136 lb from stall eight is no small ask at a mark of 54.
Form last 6-21531
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
65SR58RPR54OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 65 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Winless in her last five starts, Havana Tobouggaloo nonetheless rates above her official mark on our figures and ranks second of eight in this field, making her a genuine threat, though her recent string of mid-pack finishes is the chief concern.
Form last 6-25546
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
41SR60RPR52OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 41 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 16/1.
Winless in his last four starts and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, Minerality faces a stiff task here; he has run over today's trip and going before, and 47 days between runs at least suggests connections felt a break was needed.
Form last 68967
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
26SR46RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 26 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 33/1.
Winless in her last three starts and ranked bottom of the field on our figures, Thunder Goddess looks up against it here, though she has run over today's trip and going before and returns on a manageable 15-day break.
Form last 6645
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
56SR43RPR59OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 56 suggests ability but 11/4 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Placed in three of her last four starts, including second two runs back and third last time out, Time To Sparkle brings consistent each-way form to this contest and has experience of today's trip and going; the 133 lb burden from stall one is the obvious concern.
Form last 6915323
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
62SR59RPR57OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Sovereign Bright has run over today's trip and going, and our rating puts her narrowly at the head of the rankings, though she arrives 38 days between runs and is yet to score in her last six starts despite two thirds in that sequence.
Form last 6330685
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
45SR63RPR53OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 45 suggests ability but 16/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Hove Ranger owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (36) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
15/8Gary & Josh MooreToby Moore(7)
75%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Time To Sparkle
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
3/1 · James Keane✓ Value Signal
Minerality
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
33/1 · Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Hove Ranger (SR 65, 15/8) is the class leader in this field and arrives on the back of a winning last run (form reads -21531, rightmost = 1), at Class 6 level where his SR comfortably tops the field. He carries a manageable 9-10, holds Course:W1P1 at Lingfield AW — a meaningful edge on a track where specialists dominate — and is trained by Gary & Josh Moore (12% strike rate, 243 runners, a solid yard). GoingFit:? is the only caveat, but given this is AW good and he has recent winning form, the market's 15/8 favouritism is well-founded. The danger is Jimmy Mark, whose 37% market steam is the most dramatic signal in the race and warrants serious respect despite his GoingFit:- flag.
Each-way alternative: Thunder Goddess.
Main danger: Jimmy Mark — Jimmy Mark has steamed 37% in the market — the sharpest move in the race — and while GoingFit:- is a concern, his SR of 58 and top-weight 9-12 suggest connections are very confident despite the apparent ground concern, making him a genuine threat to the favourite.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Jockey Toby Moore has a modest 8% strike rate from just 75 rides — a relatively inexperienced pilot carrying 9-10 on the class pick, which compounds any margin for error.
Form sequence -21531 shows Hove Ranger beat a Class 6 field last time, but the step back up or sideways in class may expose whether that win was a confidence-builder or a ceiling.
Thunder Goddess (SR:56, 11/4) is steaming in 20% with trainer Andrew Balding firing at 19% — the market is splitting conviction between two horses, weakening the case for Hove Ranger's favouritism be…
GoingFit:? for an AW specialist is a genuine unknown — if Lingfield AW good is riding differently today, his Course:W1P1 edge becomes less reliable and his recent win form less directly comparable.
ShortlistHove Ranger, Jimmy Mark, Thunder Goddess, Time To Sparkle