Third last time out following a win two starts back, Great Blasket arrives here fit on a 19-day turnaround, has experience of today's trip and conditions, and carries 140 lb from stall five — a profile that makes him a strong each-way proposition at this level.
Form last 6437613
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
80SR77RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 80 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Dannick showed he can win at this level when scoring three starts back, and a runner-up finish two starts back adds further encouragement, but fifth last time out after just three days' rest is a concern, and 139 lb is no easy burden for a gelding rated 74.
Form last 6085125
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
79SR75RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 79 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Thapa VC has won two of his last six starts, landing back-to-back victories three and four starts back, and at just 10 days since his latest outing he arrives in peak fitness with experience of today's trip and going; the main risk is that eighth last time out demands a swift bounce-back.
Form last 6325118
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
77SR77RPR72OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 77 suggests ability but 7/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Havana Touch is ranked seventh of nine on our figures and that gulf is the central obstacle, with a speed rating of 66 doing little to inspire confidence; 76 days off adds a fitness query, though he did win last time out and a second three starts back shows he can mix it when conditions suit.
Form last 6921261
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
81SR73RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 81 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Renesmee heads the ratings here and, quick to return on the back of a run just ten days ago, she has experience of today's trip and going in her favour; the concern is that she has been winless in her last six starts, with a second five starts back her best recent effort.
Form last 6526065
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
52SR78RPR71OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 52 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Amused has been placed twice in his last three starts, showing a consistent knack for filling the runner-up spot, though he remains yet to win in recent starts and his speed rating of 67 leaves him with plenty to find; the combination of distance and going experience at least gives him a solid platform from stall six.
Form last 6020022
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
74SR75RPR70OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 74 suggests ability but 13/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Winless in his last six starts, with a string of eighths and unplaced efforts telling a grim story, Nezeeh is hard to fancy from stall seven carrying 132 lb, though he has run over today's trip and going before and comes here on a quick 13-day turnaround.
Form last 6090880
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
39SR69RPR67OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 39 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 66/1.
Ernie's Valentine has run over today's trip and going before, and our rating of 77 suggests he holds more ability than his official mark of 65 gives him credit for — the concern is a return from 148 days off and a winless recent run of six starts.
Form last 6255847
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
63SR77RPR65OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 63 suggests ability but 12/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Majestic Wave is winless in his last five starts and ranks eighth of nine on our figures, making him hard to fancy here; a second two starts back offers the sole encouragement, though the eighth last time out and a ninth four starts back paint a familiar picture of inconsistency.
Form last 69-9728
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
62SR70RPR61OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 62 suggests ability but 14/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Havana Touch owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (45) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1John ButlerConor Whiteley(3)
65%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Dannick
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
4/1 · Gary & Josh Moore✓ Value Signal
Renesmee
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
25/1 · Michael Keady◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Great Blasket (SR:80, 5/2) leads the SR rankings alongside Havana Touch and is priced as market leader with no drift — unlike Havana Touch which has drifted a damaging 28% from its opening price. The recent form string 437613 shows a last-time-out win just 19 days ago, the freshest positive form in the field at this class level. Carrying 10-0 is the top weight, but the 1lb edge in SR over Havana Touch (81 vs 80 but Havana Touch carries 9-10) is marginal; however, Havana Touch's 76-day absence and GoingFit:- on today's good ground are significant negatives that give Great Blasket the edge. The visor headgear is retained from the winning run, and trainer James Owen at 17% strike rate with jockey Christian Howarth booking aligns with stable confidence.
Each-way alternative: Dannick.
Main danger: Dannick — Dannick (SR:79, 7/2) has a Course:W1P1 record at Lingfield AW, GoingFit:+ on today's good going — the only runner in the field with confirmed positive going fit — and ran just 3 days ago indicating peak fitness, making it the most dangerous rival to Great Blasket.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Jockey Christian Howarth holds a 9% strike rate (191 rides) — well below the field average and notably weaker than Conor Whiteley (19%) on Havana Touch, a meaningful booking downgrade at this level.
Top weight of 10-0 is the heaviest in the field; Dannick (SR:79, 9-13, 3 days ago, course W1P1) is only 1lb lighter, fresher, and has proven course form that Great Blasket's record doesn't appear to…
MarkMv of +7 indicates the handicapper raised Great Blasket 7lbs following the last-time-out win 19 days ago — winning off a lower mark and now racing from a significantly revised ceiling is a concre…
Dannick (SR:79) ran just 3 days ago, holds course winner form (W1P1), and is only 3lbs better off at the weights, representing a live unexposed threat to the primary pick's market position.