SuperValu Co. Roscommon Ladies Day Novice Hurdle · 1m7f204y
Dani Donadoni's strong Saturday Rating of 135, competitive 2/1 odds, and consistent form of 521U-2 justify four stars.
Recent back-to-back wins in form (843-11) at 4/1 odds and a Saturday Rating of 129 justify this strong 4-star novice hurdle selection.
Solid 118 Saturday Rating and recent winning form (57F2-1) are undermined by 11-8 weight and non-favourite market position at 4/1.
A Saturday Rating of 53, poor form figures of 98-080, and unfancied 33/1 odds combine to make Move It On Over a deeply unconvincing contender.
Long odds of 80/1, poor form figures of 88P-07, and a Saturday Rating of 124 signal minimal winning prospects here.
Long odds of 33/1, poor form figures of 8-F, and a Saturday Rating of 123 make Whoyougonnacall an unconvincing outsider.
Strong Saturday Rating of 164 and competitive 15/8 odds support Lizzie Twigg's claims, despite inconsistent 15-1 form.
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Coral | Ladbrokes | William Hill | Betfred | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dani Donadoni | 2/1 | — | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 | 2/1 Bet365 |
| 2 Endless Talking | 4/1 open 4.50 | — | 7/2 | 7/2 | 4/1 open 4.50 | — | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 3 The Store Boy | 4/1 | — | 7/2 | 7/2 | 4/1 open 4.50 | — | 4/1 Bet365 |
| 4 Move It On Over | 33/1 open 101.00 | — | 28/1 open 34.00 | 28/1 | 28/1 open 34.00 | 28/1 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 5 Suresuresure | 80/1 open 67.00 | — | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 open 67.00 | 80/1 | 80/1 Bet365 |
| 6 Whoyougonnacall | 33/1 | — | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 Bet365 |
| 7 Lizzie Twigg | 15/8 open 2.75 | — | 15/8 open 2.75 | 15/8 open 2.75 | 15/8 open 2.75 | 15/8 | 15/8 Bet365 |
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer), Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync. Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lizzie Twigg owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (91) and market confidence (91). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Change lens →Base ability signal derived from the runner's best available speed figure.
Transforms live price respect into a confidence signal inside the chamber.
How cleanly the runner's engine fits the projected rhythm and pressure map.
Shows whether the current price still leaves enough upside in the pick.
Controlled volatility that keeps the simulation realistic and stress-tests the profile.
Extra certainty applied when the active lens wants to trust the obvious market leader.
Your pick and the AI view — both on one line before you enter the field.
Use the signals below, then back one runner before the off.
Choose your horse →When the models line up, pay attention. When they split, the value may be elsewhere.
Read the AI breakdown →Proprietary ability score 0–200. How good the horse actually is — independent of market opinion.
AbilityA race-day probability signal for today's conditions — form trajectory, going, suitability and weight.
Today's ChanceOne Cub. One horse. One shot. Follow the crowd — or fade it.
Community SignalStrong Saturday Rating of 164 and competitive 15/8 odds support Lizzie Twigg's claims, despite inconsistent 15-1 form.
Dani Donadoni's strong Saturday Rating of 135, competitive 2/1 odds, and consistent form of 521U-2 justify four stars.
Recent back-to-back wins in form (843-11) at 4/1 odds and a Saturday Rating of 129 justify this strong 4-star novice hurdle selection.
Solid 118 Saturday Rating and recent winning form (57F2-1) are undermined by 11-8 weight and non-favourite market position at 4/1.
What the money's doing in this race — biggest price movements across the bookmakers since the last odds sync.
Lizzie Twigg (SR 164, 15/8) is comfortably the highest-rated horse in this field by a significant margin — 29 points clear of the next best, Dani Donadoni (SR 135). Carrying the lightest weight in the field at 11-1 gives her a further edge, with 7lb in hand over the two heaviest-weighted runners. Her form reads 15-1 — a win last time out, which is the most relevant recent evidence in a novice context — and Gordon Elliott's 15% career strike rate with 1,601 runners is the most powerful training operation represented. The market has her as favourite at 15/8, which is rational given the SR gap, and while Josh Williamson is a claiming jockey, an 11% strike rate across 247 career rides is respectable. The one check is that DistFit and GoingFit are both unproven (?), meaning there's residual uncertainty about her handling this 1m7f+ trip on good ground, which prevents a High confidence call. Each-way alternative: Dani Donadoni. Main danger: Dani Donadoni — Dani Donadoni (SR 135, 2/1) is trained by the formidable W P Mullins, has a MarkMv:+3 suggesting she's still competitive off a slightly higher mark, and holds market favouritism in some layers — if Lizzie Twigg's unproven stamina trip proves a limitation, Mullins' runner is poised to capitalise.