Saint Arion ran a good second two starts back and is only nine days on from a pulled-up effort, with experience of today's going and our second-ranked 99 making him a leading threat despite being winless in his last five. The risk is that he must shoulder 168 lb after that last-time-out stop.
Form last 6-4642P
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
57SR99RPR97OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 57 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 28/1.
Carrigmoorna Rowan arrives fresh from back-to-back seconds, a second last time out and another two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. Top-rated on our figures, he's the one to beat, though he is yet to win in his last five and carries 167 lb.
Form last 64552-2
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
94SR105RPR96OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 94 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Walkinthepresent counts as a leading threat, having won two starts back, with a fourth last time out and two thirds before that, and he has run on today's going before. The main risk is a 203-day absence, and he carries 164 lb off an official mark of 93.
Form last 683314-
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
89SR88RPR93OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 89 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Daring Plan arrives in cracking order, a winner last time out and again two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going before. The one concern is a quick turnaround after only four days, carrying 153 lb.
Form last 652-U11
★AI Rating★★★☆☆
93SR84RPR82OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 93 is competitive — each-way claims if conditions suit on the day.
Uncle Al arrives fit after 19 days, with a third last time out and a second two starts back, and he has run over today's trip and going. Carrying 151 lb off an official mark of 80 is a stiff ask, though, and our rating of 84 only ranks him fifth of eight.
Form last 6163U23
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
75SR84RPR80OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 75 suggests ability but 17/2 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Third last time out and a second the run before, Pooroldmackley is bang in form after 23 days off, and he has run over today's trip and going. Yet he's winless in his last five, carries 150 lb and comes from a yard 0/23 lately.
Form last 67-4423
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
82SR83RPR79OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 82 suggests ability but 6/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Hardy Buck is winless in his last five but arrives in decent heart, third last time out and second two starts back, having run 25 days ago. He has run over today's trip and going, yet carrying 146 lb and ranked seventh of eight on our figures, he is hard to fancy.
Form last 62P-623
★AI Rating★★☆☆☆
70SR80RPR75OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 70 suggests ability but 10/1 reflects a stiff ask in this field.
Elpologreg has been placed in three of his last four, including a second last time out, but he is yet to win in that spell, was pulled up two starts back and returns after 532 days off. He has run over today's trip and going, yet 145 lb and a rating of 77 on our figures, ranked eighth of eight, make him hard to fancy.
Form last 632P/2-
★AI Rating★☆☆☆☆
58SR77RPR74OR—Votes
✦AI verdict
SR 58 is modest for this company — needs everything to go right at 20/1.
Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Daring Plan owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (52) and market confidence (93). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
13/8Susan GardnerCiaran O'Shea(7)
71%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Carrigmoorna Rowan
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
10/3 · Samuel Drinkwater✓ Value Signal
Saint Arion
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
28/1 · Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Daring Plan (SR:93, 9/4) arrives on the back of back-to-back wins (Form:52-U11), carries a workable 10-13, and the market has shortened 26% — the most significant market move in the field. The trainer's 6% strike rate is modest but the jockey Ciaran O'Shea has a strong 25% strike rate from 44 rides, suggesting a live booking. Course:W0P3 at Fontwell shows familiarity with this track, DistFit:~ and GoingFit:~ are not red flags at this class level, and running off the same mark as last win (MarkMv:=) means connections aren't being punished for recent success. The combination of in-form horse, significant market confidence, and course familiarity makes this the standout selection.
Each-way alternative: Carrigmoorna Rowan.
Main danger: Carrigmoorna Rowan — Carrigmoorna Rowan (SR:94, 3/1) is the highest SR in the field, arrives off a mark 20lb lower than at last win (MarkMv:-20) which is a significant handicapper's gift, and jockey Jonathan Burke's 15% career strike rate from 762 rides gives the booking real weight.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Trainer Susan Gardner's 6% strike rate is notably weak — even with a live jockey booking, connections have a poor record converting market confidence into wins.
Carrigmoorna Rowan (SR:94, 3/1) rates fractionally higher on SR, has course form (W0P1), and drops 20lbs off its mark — a more attractive handicap position than Daring Plan running off the same mark.
Form reads 52-U11: the two wins came after a 'U' (unseated) and a break, raising the question of whether Daring Plan has been cherry-picked into a weakened race rather than beating genuine rivals — r…
Days:4 since last run is an unusually quick turnaround, and with a headgear entry (p), connections may be managing a horse that needs careful placing — risk of a flat run on the back of a short recov…