Prices update each odds sync. Green ▼ = shortened (steamer),
Red ▲ = drifted, Blue = = unchanged since last sync.
Best column highlights the bookmaker offering the longest price.
Lord du Gouet owns one of the strongest chamber scores in this field. The Balanced lens likes the blend of SR strength (83) and market confidence (86). The profile stays composed even after the chamber introduces race-day variance.
3/1Jamie SnowdenJonathan Burke
70%Confidence
⚠ Danger Runner
Ben Cruachan
Nearest rival if the simulation drifts off the primary path.
5/1 · Philip Hobbs & Johnson White✓ Value Signal
My Lady d'Ex
Strongest upside if you want a less obvious route through the field.
150/1 · Richard Hobson◈ Chamber Memory
Balanced
Even weighting across form, market confidence and race-day volatility.
Ben Cruachan (SR 150, 5/1) carries the joint-highest weight of 11-4 but matches top SR alongside Cool Customer, and crucially has been backed in dramatically — a 26% market move in is the strongest positive market signal in the field by some margin. The Philip Hobbs & Johnson White yard runs at 18% and Ben Jones at 17%, both solid strike rates. Cool Customer (SR 154, 9/2) has the highest SR but has drifted 20% out of the market, a meaningful negative signal in a maiden where connections know most about their horses' readiness. Lord du Gouet (SR 149, 4/1) is the closest threat — same weight, strong trainer (Jamie Snowden 26%) and only a modest 6% drift — but Ben Cruachan's steaming market move tips the balance.
Each-way alternative: Lord du Gouet.
Main danger: Lord du Gouet — Lord du Gouet (SR 149, 4/1) carries Jamie Snowden's 26% trainer strike rate — the best in the field — and Jonathan Burke at 15% is an experienced booking, making this a professional operation likely to have a horse ready on its return after 209 days.
⚖Case against4clamped▾
Ben Cruachan's form reads '3-' — just one chase start resulting in a third place, with a lengthy absence since; extremely thin evidence base for a 7yo still in maiden company.
At 7 years old in a novice/maiden chase, Ben Cruachan is noticeably older than most rivals (several 5yo); a horse this age without a win over fences raises a material class/ability ceiling question.
Lord du Gouet (4/1, SR 149, Jamie Snowden 26% strike rate) is shorter in the market and trained by the highest-strike-rate handler in the field — the market move into Ben Cruachan may simply reflect…
Cool Customer holds a higher SR (154 vs 150) and Fergal O'Brien's 15% strike rate with 732 runners is a large, reliable sample; a 20% drift can reflect a tactical decision to wait rather than genuine…
ShortlistBen Cruachan, Lord du Gouet, Cool Customer, Eastern Rock